All Activity

euro did this last month and busted badly. could still happen but right now if its alone its probably off

Not a big fan of this blog overall, but it has its moments. Imo this one is spot on, and worth the read. Not anything a true ravens fan doesn't already know- but well constructed and a great synopsis of how/why we have gotten to this point with the Ravens under Harbaugh. https://russellstreetreport.com/2025/09/10/street-talk/harbaugh-mirror/ Related, and also good: https://russellstreetreport.com/2025/09/09/street-talk/harbaugh-conservative/

If the low can close off and dig west of us, we’ll get a moist fetch off the ocean. If not, probably cloudy and nasty.

Charlie Kirk shot and if the video online is real

Cloudy day with spits and drizzle. Getting a decent shower now. A couple hundredths in the gauge. Currently 66.

We haven't been seeing a big Aleutian ridge though. It looks like a vortex over the Arctic circle will get down below 4950dm tomorrow! That is probably record breaking, occurring just north of Russia and coming in close to -500dm. These vortexes over the last few weeks have been something, in the last few days of August we also had a sub-5000dm vortex over the Arctic circle. These extremes are similar to like Cuba hitting freezing.

Will be interesting to see whether the Youghiogheny River Lake approaches the lows of last autumn. Currently, around 1415.8' ASL. Looks like it fell to around 1,369' in early November 2024, although I'm not sure of the exact low. Further research suggests a low of about 1,362' in December 1998, and a value in 1991 of about 6' higher than that. The December 21, 1998 low was said to have been exceeded twice, in 1954 & 1957. Source: A bridge to the 19th century Not sure we reach as low as last fall unless October is dry, but decent odds of dropping below 1,400' again. Not sure when the "ghost bridge" becomes visible.

The Apr-May SLP pattern in the Atlantic was a giveaway.. something to look at in future years. Pattern never really supported a major warming of tropical Atlantic SSTs.

@bluewave @donsutherland1 Lack of eastward MJO propagation, -IOD and persistent strong trades has lead to a deep -AAM and La Niña like regime

Top 10 afternoon

Maybe the time has come to rethink parameters such as SSTs/AMO and ENSO for seasonal hurricane forecasts….

Congrats Maine!!!

Cutoff lows notoriously difficult with precip placement. But would be nice to get another dump of rain and on a Monday-that would be great

CMC wet east of NYC, drier west, but other models have nothing

Euro wet for next Monday

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/RONI.ascii.txt Enso is about similar this year as it was last year,to this date anyways

That is what happens with wishcasters...lol

I'll need to wait this out... one thing I didnt see was EC AI was almost nothing. It could be the EC suite (non AI) is too strong and too far southwest with the 5H vort plunging sdwd from south center Canada with the resultant sfc response too robust here. Would make this a period of waa showers Sunday afternoon and maybe cool frontal showers Monday. I do think its best to play temps conservatively and cooler in this pattern for another 10 days and wait this out a bit but I plan on showers Sunday afternoon and possibly right into Monday night. Patience... at least for me til a I reconsider later on. 12z WPC D4-6 guidance has boosted qpf a bit and I think that right... dont plunge into the unusual heavy solution till we have more confidence. Lets not say its a nice end to the weekend beginning of next week.

Its been gone and lol to the ones "wishing" it was still here.

No I meant that it kept lows up. Not ready for cold.

Thank you Cholorob for your intelligent reply. Now, getting back to the tropics, or even sub-tropics ... While everyone has been searching for straws there's a little one (potential yellow down the road?) from here in Eastern North Carolina ... Morehead City NWS Discussion: There are some indications of a weak low forming along the stalled front/coastal trough off the FL/GA/SC coast this coming weekend into early next week as a deep positively tilted trough moves through. It is too soon to tell what impacts, if any, are expected with very low confidence on the timing, track, and intensity of the low should it form. At the minimum, winds should pick up a notch thanks to the tightened pressure gradient. This results in a higher degree of uncertainty for the forecast this weekend onwards.

It’s been gone but I feel for those that repeatedly called for endless summeh thru cOctober.

Nice! I've seen almost no deer sign in our woodlot, though our new neighbors (they plan to build next summer, now doing some road and clearing work) have captured does and a nice buck on their trailcams. Another sunny cool day.

Water levels are high on the north shore. Probably a 1.5 feet above normal. Stiff breeze as well