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I think the models are having trouble right now trying to determine exactly how far south the cold air will settle south - this will determine the boundary zone where the LP will move west to east

Many winters in the SE we have to contend with the SER. This winter has been much different. Yes it did show itself right around Christmas but the winter as a whole we have not seen the SER very much. Also it seams the maps show a blowtorch coming only to reverse or relaxes by the time the period gets here.

FYP

It really is like Hoth today. Everything is frozen solid

Models are cooking us in March. 70s widespread

Yes it has. Also, it won't be talked about much because it's a pretty meager event and we were never fully in the crosshairs but today was a pretty big miss by the GFS, one in which it didn't cave to the other models until inside of 24 hours. As far as Monday, I still feel pretty good about where we are. 0z GFS wasn't as far south and I don't put as much stock in the off-hour runs. Other models also still have varying degrees of support. WPC still has us in the heart of its precip map so that's good. Much to be determined the next couple days but isn't it fun when we're entering March and have to worry about Virginia and North Carolina stealing our snow haha.

how many years have you been a hobbyist ?

It’s almost definitely overdone but seeing mid-upper 80s in that march 7-13 timeframe is nuts. It’s not just a day too it’s like a week. Could definitely be an early season beach trip. Ridgemageddon

The entire month of February and we got 0 snow here. Not one measurable event. What a disaster of a winter for this area. Unmitigated disaster.

I’m trying to make my bet on Kalshi for when you flip from ACATT to AWATT. Do you have any insider tips?

That sounds pretty great to me. I still remember getting like a foot on March 21st in 2018.

This is officially drought relief rainfall today. Coupled with rain the last two weeks we have definitely started to put a dent in it

Yea odds are always low, we also may get MJO help as the month progresses. It would be pretty crazy if we go from a stretch of 70s early month to a March 20-25 major snowstorm lol.

Honestly you’re a good experiment for the mental health industry.

Same thing here.

I see it’s psycho analyze Kevin time of year. Everyone turns into Typhoon Tipfreud trying to understand how my psyche works

Late March snow would be fun! But that's probably just 40 degree rain lol.

Fake news. CPez said it didn’t happen.

Feels like spring this morning.. actually feels good after the relentless cold this winter

I am also ready for the torch. Once we hit March 1st, my enthusiasm for tracking is gone. This map looks great.

Yep. Can tell that cocoon has something brewing in it already.

Although once his pack starts taking a beating and the valley is flirting with 70° the gypsy will emerge trying to rain to Maine and take everyone else’s pack.

Some of the stories I heard about plows stopping in the middle of the road and then front end loaders needed is exactly what I experienced on 4/1/97. Where I was had a massive plow just stop because he could not push the snow anymore. Waited two days for a front end loader to come.

Lots of neighbor pics in the extended