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I haven't looked, but any difference in strength is trivial...if anything, this year ENSO should be more favorable because last year was a Modoki, as opposed to east-central this year. The hallmark of the west warn pool has been a consistent strongly +WPO due to the cold being bottled up near Siberia....thia year we have seen a reprieve from that for the first time since 2021-2022.

I don't know about this. Eric Webb guy. First of all, La Nina is already starting to fade. Just not buying what he's saying. There's a few other guys that I trust will who dive deep into the pattern with a whole different scenario of what's going to happen. I'm going to let this one just fly out the window. Don't see this outcome as the frontrunner at all at this point.

Can't really buy a juiced up northern stream s/w on the GFS without some help from the GOM.

NWS needs to either put a dedicated observer there who will do it properly or just use obs from someplace else.

You’re asking the same questions as I am. I asked him directly as well. The warm pool looks similar to last year unless i’m midreading something. Maybe it’s because the Nina itself looks stronger this year.

You'll never guess what the new one looks like...

8-9 million people in NYC.. Everyone is constantly taking BS selfies and what not on their phone. No one can go to where CP measures, and document it? Is it off limits like Area 51? Ridiculous.

Ahh ya..a cutter I’ll do that. Give me a break.

EPS daily extended ticked colder this run with normal temps into second week of January and with below normal end of January into early February. Control is much colder. Definitely not a "winter is over" run.

seriously - this official chart contains those inaccurate measurements - not good monthlyseasonalsnowfall.pdf

Unedited sunset pic I just took in my neighborhood

This is misleading

Because they dont think there is a problem

Consider that the official Measurer, or whatever title you want to give him, was the Central Park Zookeeper from 1992-2014. A period of some of the worst under measured storms of all time. They handed it off to the Conservancy and from 2015-2019 it improved quite a bit. Since 2020 they have been as bad as the zookeeper was.

They’re in bed with Big Melt. .

Central Park always under measures! How is that even legal!?

18z GFS is probably the ceiling for this event in terms of intensity and snowfall totals. There would be some powerful zonally translating mid-level snowbands across CNE and NNE with that dynamic look. Verbatim a high end SWFE that successully jumps to the coast to lock in cold air For more snow further south, we would need destructive interference to attenuate the shortwave a bit. A scenario like the Euro is still a good storm, but it's not a nuke like this GFS look.

then why hasn't the problem been solved and corrected ?

We love to see it.

That's a lot of snow up here.

This is not rocket science. It's pretty simple.

Absolute nuke in NNE. Icing down into CT. at the surface temp cave from the 12z run

Yep

GFS going for a ice storm

I think it has to be an employee of the NWS - anyone on here live near Central Park and can measure close to where they get their measurements from ? maybe Walt has some more info on the measurements and why they are always low