All Activity

Best looking system by far this season and close to home. https://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/PSUGOES_US/loop60v.html Don't think this makes major status and thinking Cat 1 at landfall but spreading out as it landfalls. Jet interactions may make this just as bad or worse inland than at the coast. Winds will extend quite a distance inland with massive power outages. Ground is saturated along the gulf coast to boot. Lots of trees will come down. Tornado threat east of the track is going to be a problem as well. Surge will be the biggest issue at the coast I think. Also think NHC will continue to nudge track east a bit in future advisories. Places near landfall and to the right will get the worst of the winds and surge. West side could have not much going on with a lopsided system.

Yes. But GFS at 8 days….ya skeptical.

Yyyyyeeeeeeesssssssssss

Even though precise track may not be as important on Isaias as other more powerful storms, fwiw pretty much every 12z model trended east from prior runs. Heck, the 12z HMON is almost to Panama City Beach. 12z HAFS-B gains a whopping 32 mb of pressure in last 15 hours before landfall.

77 / 48 just a gorgeous day , lets see how and if any touch 80.

In the middle of both personal & business preparations, so haven’t posted much. I can say the vast majority of the public is taking the storm seriously. Should be able to post more tonight & then start OBS tomorrow when necessary. .

Beautiful fall weather the last few days. Now warming up a bit with hopefully some rain on the way.

You're wrong on pretty much all that. - China's labor costs are roughly 1/3 that of the US. And there is no such thing as "unskilled labor" any more - any thing that used to be unskilled is done by machines now. - China's environmental policies have generally been way worse than the US. They're doing things that in no way would be feasible on the US - displacing cities and filling valleys to build dams, thousands of square miles of solar panels in wetlands and lakes, transmission lines that run all over without community pushback, etc. etc. - Renewables have gotten vastly more subsidies on a per-unit-of-energy basis than fossil fuels, which is what counts. - While wind farms *can* be built near the coast - they provide tiny amounts of energy and at huge environmental and economic costs, which is why so many projects have been canceled lately, and why you see numbers like 2.3% for the PJM region, even though it abuts the coast. The only region that's gotten any kind of bang-for-the-buck on offshore wind is places Denmark and the North Sea, because they've got the perfect geographical conditions for it there. The rest of the world not so much. - Can't speak to your house situation, since there are a host of untold factors (e.g. your location etc). But I suspect if you took at honest look at all the factors, including things maintenance and replacement costs (not just your system but the whole roof), and subsidies - you'd find it's not as cost-advantageous as you think. Also you're talking one tiny part of overall energy consumption - a house. That doesn't help things like factories, aviation, commercial transportation, etc. that use lots of fossil fuels. And it doesn't help the 95% or so of people who have living conditions that aren't amenable to rooftop solar, like non-south-facing houses, and multi-story apartments - virtually anything with a city. You've bought into all the green lobby talking points. You need to look under the hood more at the whole story.

heh... in and of itself this is rather impressive for a week from tomorrow

I stand corrected. Thank you

It's clearing out on visible

It’s battling dry air and shear and this will get worse as it approaches. Maybe tonight this tries to take off again which is likely its last chance.

Super El Niño

NHC is now predicting Rachel to stay tropical upon landfall, though in the forecast discussion they say it’s not certain. Either way it’s unusual for a EPac system to make landfall so far north.

When is this strengthening storm going to, you know, strengthen? Pressure has been stuck on 976 mb per recon for a couple hours.

After it gets to Sunday 7am position does it turn more eastward?

It’s probably a decent Cat 1 at landfall but it’ll look like a ragged mess.

SHEAR... FTL. Combined with ML dews are a death knell. Wouldn't be surprised if LF is as TS. Tracking this was way to brief.

We all know the reason we love this forum is not the analysis, the friends, or the banter - but to see blue (maybe even purple or pink!) pixels appear on your screen. This thread is dedicated to the storms that could've been, should've been, or are plain ridiculous. Today officially kicks the start to our season with a good old fashioned CFS run!

Technically according to this image, it was a H by 0Z on 10/8 in 1905 or 7PM EST on 10/7. So, that means 2026 was a little later if you go by this:

Feels like this one is going to end up as a classic north Gulf half-i-cane landfalls.

The hurricane was declared as such at 11:30pm eastern on 10/7 after a Hurricane Hunters pass. So it’s a little dicey. Of course there’s a good chance 1905 had a hurricane earlier in their season that we didn’t detect

I was on my to the gym(which is just over the line a mile or two)in chesire, and I came up to route 10, and that shot was in front of me, so I snapped a picture. Yes, we in Southington had the snow, as you can see in that picture, but Chesire it wasn’t sticking as well.