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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1804_New_England_hurricane wish we could gin up a cat 4-5 ish and roll the dice.

There is a fairly large system being modeled going into this weekend right over the warm pool region. I think there is forecasted 60-80knot winds already starting to show up across the area. Should definitely help continue carving out the cooler waters and moving that warm pool. As for the Atlantic there is still a decent NW Atlantic warm tongue around Nova Scotia so we should continue to see ridging potential in the region and add the risk of things at times connecting with the SE ridge. Im still rather hopeful that average snowfall can be achieved this year across many areas. RMM plots never fully grasp the intensity of such waves but regardless it should be pretty intense wave to start things off for fall. We are a little off where we were last year at this time for MJO but it looks to follow a similar path and intensity as we did through October last year. Here are the SST anomalies last year as we ended summer and went into fall. The PDO last year had a double dip take place and October values, at the time, were some of the lowest on record.

Wanna sub for $5.95/mo?

I do think the pattern coming up will favor slowly moving that warm pool in the central Pacific a bit further east with continued cooling influences east of Japan and along the west coast, at least for the next 2 weeks anyway.

Well I nickel and dimed my way to 0.38" yesterday with a 2nd round that took me to 0.32" from 0.30", and then another round to 0.38" for the day. This morning I had a surprising 0.08", giving me a grand total of almost 3/4" over 4 days (0.74") and 0.92" for the month so far. It bottomed out at 52 just after 6:30 this morning and hit 67 just before 3 pm for a high, after the skies cleared and the sun came out. Currently cloudy and 60 with dp 55.

Blizzarcane!

That was a very localized heavy snow event. The ol' upper level low surprise. That map there is closer to reality than the one I ridiculed in the previous post. LOL 6-10"? NO. Was maybe an inch or 2 here. It simply didn't do anything for most of the event and by the time it shifted over this way it rapidly weakened.

I agree, not snow, but the end of the world as we know it....

Tomorrow will be partly sunny and milder with highs reaching the middle 60s. However, a fresh shot of cool air will move into the region late in the day or at night. Following the frontal passage, parts of the region could experience their coolest temperatures so far this fall. Dry conditions will likely prevail through the remainder of the week. In the 18 past years where Central Park saw at least two 80° or above highs and Newark saw at least two 84° or above highs during the first week of October, the temperature returned to 70° or above on at least one day during the second half of October in 17 (94.4%) of those cases. For all other cases, 84.1% saw at least one such high temperature during the second half of October. Therefore, the sharp cool spell very likely won't mean that New York City has seen its last 70° or above high temperature. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around October 8. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.12°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.42°C. La Niña conditions will likely continue through mid-winter. The SOI was -3.48 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.487 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 66% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 58.9° (1.0° above normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 2.0° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

That clown is still at it?

not snow.. but one more frame of that GFS run might have been

sure, if you have a good down parka.....i used to hike all winter, jogged when i was younger. it was cold. very much so.

many kids did not do well, i was working in schools at the time. motivated kids did well, others did not, and the data bears this out. but hindsight is 20-20 and there was no playbook for this. over a million dead...the worst results in the developed world. my kids did fine online, but some kids just never logged in.

The former. PDO rising in the fall, then falling back into the abyss during spring and summer has become something like a broken record the past few years. I don’t think we will know when it ends until the PDO stays well into positive territory for at least several months.

Low chance here (or near zero/none realistically) but decent U.S. chance (s) perhaps? there remains plenty 'o ohc to go around, untouched carib. <3

Thats kind of what I’m envisioning. Hence “very low” chance .But the pattern progged does allow for something wild potentially

just to clarify, when you refer to "this shit" (lol), are you referring to the PDO always rising in the fall/winter and falling back down in the spring/summer, or are you referring to the pdo rise right now, and you're saying that the rise can't last forever?

I just looked at the animation, and that warm blob ticking east looks like a promising sign. Let’s see if it isn’t just a blip, though. Another good sign is the atlantic isn’t boiling anymore. Most of that basin appears to be near normal, maybe slightly above overall. Re MJO I wonder if the models are under forecasting the amplitude. If this hollmover forecast plot is correct, it’s pretty strong. This pans out, we could see more +PNA this winter… making it more like last year than a blowtorch winter like 2022-23.

Let's hope for a Sandy/Hazel hybrid that turns to 2' of snow for us!

Here you go....-both maps were accurate for me. Took me hours to drive between College Park and Greenbelt. Cars abandoned everywhere. It snowed 3-4 inches an hour with drifts over 2 feet. And it was not forecasted. Mom was freaking out since there were no cell phones back then... National Weather Service @NWS #OTD in 1987, a snowstorm hit the Washington, D.C. area, with up to 17" of snow and stranding cars for nearly 24 hours. The event led to the development of the Washington Metropolitan Area Snow Plan to facilitate preparedness and response. https://weather.gov/lwx/winter_DC-Winters #NWS150 November 11, 1987: The Veteran's Day Storm will not be forgotten by many Washington travelers. Almost a foot (11.5 inches) fell at National Airport. Prince Georges County, MD was hard hit with up to 13 inches of snow falling in a short amount of time. It caught motorists off guard and stranded cars on the Capitol Beltway. There were so many cars that snow plows could not get through to open the clogged arteries. Cars littered the roadway for more than 24 hours. The event precipitated the development of the Washington Metropolitan Area Snow Plan to facilitate preparedness and response to future storms. This storm struck before the days of lightning detection networks and Doppler weather radar. When thunderstorms began dumping heavy snow over the Fredericksburg VA, forecasters had no idea. The storm moved northeast across the southern Metropolitan area (Prince Georges County). It was not until the fast accumulating snow hit Camp Springs, where at the time the Weather Forecast Office was located, did forecasters realize what was happening.

Saw a DT post hyping up this winter a bit lol.

when i started teaching in 1988, teachers told me what a disaster it was in the 70s as they watched the sunrise during first period....kids at the bus stops in the dark, walking to school in the dark...

It looks like the warm pool SW of the Aleutians may be on the move very similarly to how last year evolved. This should continue to push further east with time allowing the index for PDO to start to make a run to neutral status. If we do indeed start to push these waters further east toward the Gulf of Alaska it should allow for a weaker overall trough going into Canada then we have seen. The waters west of Japan into the Koreas and China is not dwindling any time soon but if the area further east does try to continue to cool it could play for a pretty impressive snow event or two as a giant lake effect event like they experienced a few years ago. https://psl.noaa.gov/map/clim/sst.anom.anim.week.html Also the MJO is finally on the move and actually becoming a wave versus the null action over the last 2 months. The enhanced trades are some of the furthest west we have seen in a long time this could very well continue to cool the waters at least around the eastern portion of the maritime continent as we go into late fall early winter. I would not be surprised to see one last system in the Caribbean for the month of October to close out the season as the MJO moves through 1-2-3.

This video embraces the two things I miss dearly right now.Good winners and old times. The suspense is unbearable, but don't worry fellas Sally pulls through.

Would be so crazy. Do think late October looks rather stormy regardless