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Pretty clear on the guidance that the evolution is mid lat cyclone to STC to tropical warm core/STC.

How many named naked swirls have we seen over the years? In the eyes of those who know better, should this count?

lol already got branches down in my neighborhood. Canceled a reservation for our 20th anniversary dinner in Bay Shore that was supposed to be at 8pm tomorrow because that area floods rather easily, forget in a storm like this. Lol it’s always friggin something ugh.

I wouldn’t wanna be flying in this wind i dont mind flying but hate turbulence lol

this next Wed - Sat looking increasingly WAR -like in the GFS's recent guidance... 00z, 06z and 12z runs GGEM's sort of coming around. Euro thinks ala carte mid November

You will see delays for sure. They are so busy that even a run of the mill storm causes delays

Yeah, the mean tide forecast tomorrow for the GSB is just below the Hurricane Irene mark which maxed out at the +5.5 level.

Jesus. A hybrid storm taking the same path Sandy took. More rain, much smaller wind field.

Was gusting around forty here earlier, a friend of mine told me there was a wire down on wellwood ave in Lindenhurst already

mm/hr

This is the track that'll yield the worst winds and coastal flooding. The models that have it go over the NY harbor or so are less extreme (this is obviously especially true for the central NJ coastline.

long range meso HRRR and NAMs did

What about airport service on Sun/Mon at the 3 major NYC area airports? How did past comparable storms affect service?

James? James, is that you?

Given how close to the coast it is modeled to get, I think so eventually—whether initially along the NJ coast or when it’s weaker and moving NE over part of New England.

You mean issuing evacuations? There's not enough time. Absolutely NO model had this slamming into central NJ 48 hours ago. Not even the EURO or EURO AI.

The eyewall did not disappear. It’s working on itself, you can see the inner cloud wall developing.

Well, there won't be much subway service Monday morning if that verifies.

Sandy lite v.2 - "Sandy's weaker cousin"

Agreed-a few days ago the track suggested north winds now it's NE or even ENE

I did not lol ... 12z GFS looks even warmer... By that, just less obstructed in general. 570+ DM thickness both Thu and Fri, with 582 non-hydrostatic isohypsis situate NW of ALB ... It's actually looking more more WAR-like

Will this thing actually make a landfall or meander just south of LI/NJ ?

I'd also keep an eye on western L.I. Sound. Depending on exact wind trajectories water could be piling into the west end of the sound. Been concerned about that for several days. As of now forecasts are for mid range moderate but room for higher if the winds can go more ENE for a time. Just something to watch.

Great. Just fn great.

Spinning wheel