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Well we can’t keep going like this so maybe you have to change the pattern and risk losing cold and dry for a chance at a bigger storm knowing the it could also be a warm rain

Every single modeled torch going back to October has muted or vanished. Gotta figure that happens again Xmas

Its coming once this front moves through. Temp and dew point about to drop. Hope you do well man!

light coating on grassy/elevated surfaces. Steady but pretty light snow with tiny flakes. 33 degrees now - had a weird temp spike just before sunrise but it has come down since then.

Hey Disc what is that 97th Century equation in your sig? What's it for?

That's the risk of being cold eary...pattern has to breakdown at some point

This if for roughly the same time frame. The 6z GFS, 0z EPS, and 0z CMC. Let's see if the Euro deterministic is leading a change. For now, the ensembles are not there. The 6z Euro looked like it would have been cold. Time will tell. I certainly am no fortune teller!

Looks like the gfs is on its own delivering a snowstorm to detroit midweek.

Sadly my office went from fully remote to in office in md(starting this week) so missing the snowstorm but I’ll add pictures that my husband sends me.

Not too often see daytime snow and not have to worry about mixing. Gonna be some cold sledding tonight

For ONLY kicks and giggles, let's see if the 6z GFS can hit the half court shot on Christmas Eve.

35 currently with a dewpoint of 32. Still think a great event is on tap. Enjoy and be safe all.

Yep. We’ve seen it before. I wouldn’t mind a 6pF Christmas Day.

The 0z EPS has a much different solution than any other global ensemble including the AIFS. The GEFS, GEPS, and AIF still have the cold shot next weekend. The 6z GFS has a the Christmas Eve cold shot(which really could go either way). I think the widely diverse solutions are due to the various MJO solutions. The EURO at range has struggled so far during late fall and winter. It certainly is good enough to score a coup, but it erroneously called for the beginning of December to be warm(after the weeklies had it cold). I would suspect there is a severe cold shot headed into the Lower 48. Things get scrambled when that happens.

The models have been correcting colder so far this month after showing warmth in the long range. I believe it will continue as along as the WPO stays negative. Look at the gefs correcting in the bottom imaging. This month will end up being a cold month. Now hopefully snow will eventually come with it for areas near the coast.

Yep, white. Started as all snow here, although it did warm up a bit late overnight. Went to bed a little past 1 am at 28.0/26.3 and currently 32.2/29.8 with moderate snow.

Cold pattern breaks down by Christmas…and never comes back aka 2022-23[emoji23]?

Some of those spots will have my normal December snowfall between these two storms. I mean you just have to laugh.

Radar looks really good up in parts of northern Virginia right now! There is a lot of precip to the west heading straight east to the DC region. Might want to break out those shovels. This might turn out to be a surprize overperformer! One thing you guys need not worry about this time around: dry air. There isn't very much of that, just plenty of incoming moisture for snow. Just had a good night delivering. I think that this might mean you guys are about to have good day snowing. And accumulating.

There is a lag in the MJO response . Lets see where we are at in a week.

Winter storm warnings from Roanoke to Williamsburg…can’t make it up.

Sounds about right.

We stay the course. Multiple threats possible beginning mid week into end of following week.

We're going to see token flurries as this system pulls away and we wave goodbye. Temps shot up to 38 with DPs to match.

There’s a chance. But it really has to be timed right.