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Welcome back. Lets go!

Is there any wind associated with this storm, I haven't heard or read anything about blowing or drifting in the early stages Sunday morning. I know once the sleet has a layer it won't go anywhere, but prior to that?

changeover to ICE happens much faster on the NAM for folks in VA

3k looks better with the earlier stuff, at least to my weenie eyes

That's safely snow. Wish we could hold that until at least 15z

I'm honestly not that impressed - looks like .17" of precip for DCA from 42-45? We need more

Moving this to banter NWS doesn’t need to label it snow and sleet because sleet counts as snow.

12z NAM 4am Sunday ripping

Surface Temps have nothing to do with mixing

Love that you showed the para! Friendly reminder that the NBM winter fields update at 01, 07, 13, and 19Z, so instead of showing the 12Z, it's best to wait one hour and use a version that incorporates more recent guidance.

Is this better @NorthArlington101

Sleet line really accelerating between hrs 42-45 northbound.

https://x.com/bobby_boyd1946/status/2014678178665549871?s=46 .

Yeah it won’t make much difference. I’m pretty bullish on Monday. I’ve seen that look and flow enough times over the years. It’s gonna snow right into Monday night with that east inflow

Next panel is nice..but here comes the thermals Markedly better than 6z

Totally meaningless, but it has been depressing to watch the Saturday and Sunday night low temps creep up like 3 degrees.

NAM seemed cooler earlier on but it's really accelerating the sleet line north now by hrs 42-45

Yeah, not sure I'd call that ripping. Next panel is key

Def possible given the low DP; how much of that is ip v sn is probably the toughest call

I'll be doing Bacon Ridge in Crownsville. I plan to sleet to about 11pm. Get up and be at the trail head at midnight. My plan is to head about 4 miles in. I'll being taking pictures of the old cemetery where the trail crosses the old Crownsville Mental institution property. From Hawkins Road to there is a good 4 miles. That's 8 miles round trip. It should be epic with heavy snow.

Taking a walk; surface temps are going below freezing again- at least we don't have that to worry about that with this storm.

meh - next panel critical

It is refreshing over in the non banter thread this year to not have to sift thru psu essays on the elephant in the room or if it will ever snow again. Rather, we get to read his debbing about warm tongues at 700-800mb, dry slots, and fast moving lows too close to the coast.

Bottom line…gonna be a big storm and big hit. We take and enjoy. 12-18 is a good bet where we stand right now. As others have said…whatever happens during the day Monday(if anything at all) will be the extra or not. Let’s enjoy this. It’s been a long time coming.