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EURO and CMC don’t do it. See if it’s an off run. Plenty of time

Euro 0z ticked north for anyone south

Unless you can’t leave on 2/1…hmmm.

18/-8 here -4/-8 Deep Creek

For the love of god, be right.

A big ole shaft headed straight for Boston

To be honest every model was glorious. None had less than 12 inches. A couple with 20. Let's go for 2 ft in the morning runs...

That Euro run is a thing of beauty for DC. Soundings suggest DC holds on until about 17z Sunday - and about 0.9” QPF has fallen already. LFG

Updayted

Euro is glorious .

Radar versus their latest run. NAM too far north with mix line, RGEM and HRRR too far south

RGEM sees this like I do. If you are in climo favored CAD regions anywhere in NC or extreme upstate SC, not a drop of this falls as rain. I’ve been chuckling at the wishcast posts thinking it will. Look at Texas verification right now, look at the temps diving out of Ohio and that HP. .

AIFS likes Feb. 6. Not too far away for Feb. 1/2 either, but miss verbatim.

Love the 0z trends tonight. Let's see how 12Z holds. How's the radar looking to what models were forecasting as far as snow/sleet line?

even if the euro were to flip in immediate DC metro at 15z Sunday. That's around 8-9" of snow followed by 3" sleet. This is a truly sick run.

Just saw your post but I had been thinking the same thing all day! Planes definitely sounded different to me as well. I’m about 10 miles east of ORD

For sure. But uncle showed less qpf from Luke down through nyc which is what I was referring to. I think the orographic assist should be enhanced if we do Monday properly.

Only -4 for a high this afternoon. Pretty hard around here to get a below zero high temp with zero snow on the ground, but we did it. Pretty impressive. Lowest wind chill hit -38 early this morning.

NAM and RRFS are on their own with the extreme mid level warm air surge. None of the other globals or mesos agree with pushing sleet to the Poconos.

GEFS seem to suck, too.

What do you make of this euro run [mention=2304]psuhoffman[/mention] Wetter / thumpier pre flip?

Early-mid afternoon big time fun, flip to sleet by 7pm-ish but by then the vast majority already fell. Euro got wetter too, went from about 0.9" liquid last run to 1.2 now.

00z euro ai aifs Total QPF Total Snow (10:1)

While one has a better chance of winning a USSR state-sponsored lottery than getting a single GFS deterministic run to verify at 10 days out, the 0z GEFS isn't exactly self-assured of a coastal low solution either. It hints at one, but that's about it. Lotta time yet between now and early Feb to go bowling for Miller A's, but some of the biggest storms had such strong signals that the models locked onto them 7+ days out and remained remarkably consistent until 0-day.