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Incredible supercell long track tornado

Going to go to Amherst golf club

I suspect that its seeming inability to see cold anomalies except at shorter timescales has a lot to do with the idea that boundary conditions drive seasonal averages. ENSO, PDO are prominent conditions. The oceans overall are warming. Therefore, the model forecasts are tipped toward the warmer idea more broadly than is realistic. Worse, the coefficients of determination for such variables related to boundary conditions and actual seasonal outcomes are very low. These weak relationships reveal that other important factors are involved, including synoptic scale events that cannot be reliably forecast beyond 10-14 days. Some of these additional variables may not yet be known. Synoptic scale events i.e., large snowstorms, Arctic blasts, etc., can have a great influence on the overall seasonal outcomes. Thus, even a warm winter can be much snowier than normal or a cold winter can lack snowfall. On account of these other variables, every La Niña or El Niño event is not alike. The seasonal models are not yet at a stage where they can even begin to consistently resolve the actual events that ultimately produce the seasonal outcome. A similar situation applies to subseasonal forecasting. Not surprisingly, beyond two weeks, model skill on the weekly guidance largely disappears. There also seems to be a larger deal of persistence in the two week or longer forecasts than what actually occurs. AI may improve some of these outcomes. But even then, big challenges could still persist. For example, even as some experiments with random forest models have shown a degree of improved skill in forecasting ENSO, those models are constrained by their knowledge base. Hence, when it comes to forecasting extreme events e.g., super El Niño events, they have great difficulty. Perhaps the combination of AI and quantum computing might produce some significant breakthroughs. But that's still in the future and perhaps a decade or more away, assuming society values science and basic research to make the investments necessary to arrive at that improved state of forecasting. That's an open question in some areas and it will become even more relevant as major states grapple with the costs of aging populations, rising debt relative to GDP, etc., and the trade-offs involved in making budget allocations.

I’m sorta hoping with the watch that was just issued they move it indoors.

nada here and looks like it skirts to north of me

They popped up pretty quickly. These pre-frontal discrete cells we have to keep an eye on. There’s one on my doorstep now.

This next round might nail here as well

Don't wear your 4th of July outfit. I'm pretty sure they have security.

I bet Tip knows the good residence hall views.

possible tornado moving into Massachusetts

beast of a cell that one

Maybe Amherst college has a great viewing spot?

I have a PM 2.5 sensor outside and something pinged it twice this week and figured maybe someone was bbqing nearby (which will cause that too), but didn't see anyone grilling. Looked like it was yesterday and Tuesday night. Otherwise, I bottomed out at 70 this morning and it shot up to 87 before clouding over. Currently a humid 85 with dp 75 and some little segment just to my northwest.

Probably going to be too far north. Was thinking Amherst early morning but it’s tough to find a good spot. I found a great spot last year at the school but when I went there with my friend a few months ago I couldn’t find the spot

Ask and you shall receive

I’m watching Texas look pretty awful too.

Looks like they did just as I posted.

Prob gonna want to extend that…

Might have been a brief TDS?

If I was with someone I would definitely do that lol. Otherwise boring alone

I’m not seeing much for me over and up here but that tornado over in northern Dutchess looks legit on radar.

You can go to the Rendevous in Turner Falls afterwards and have a three dollar pint of PBR!

Had like 4 over me. .81" winding down now

Now if this persists through winter…

Wonder what it is about right now that made them take flight in significant numbers. Popped to 90.7 at home. Looks like a lot of upper 80s temps and near 70 DPs around. Full summer.