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RIC went from 1.9” at 18z to 8.9” at 00z on the gfs. Not saying it’s correct but the precipitation field did expanded northward.

UKMET Total QPF

Sorry buddy. It doesn't work like that every winter. We have had endless and endless warm winters recently and we are way way overdue for a cold winter like this one. It will be back to warm weather soon enough.

I'll wait for the 00z euro to say so

UK a Monster HiT!!

Too expensive, I switched to tequila

UK

So nice to have the sunset time approaching 5:15pm now. Sitting at just about 31 inches for this season, not bad at all. I don't know my seasonal average, but I would assume around 40ish maybe? @rgwp96Any idea? Also, this is a pretty legit cold snap. Low single digits every night here right through the weekend. Next week looks to "warm" a bit as we have a chance at seeing above freezing again.

Its all gonna come down to how well the ULL can reign in any front-running energy ahead of it. The more compact the system is in the upper-levels, the more consolidated it will be at the surface and the further north it will get before eventually pinwheeling northeast these runs that end up going SE, you can see how the heights east of the storm "open up", so to speak, and fail to wrap back into the system. This is the energy spawning those secondary areas of low pressure, which prevents the system from consolidating, and also resulting in less moisture transport to the main low resulting in paltry precip on the northwestern side of the coastal. It can be seen quite clearly at 500mb vorticity at the hr 90/78 timestamps of the 12z/00z runs of the CMC.

And that is why you are a chain smoker now...? Er... Nvm.

Incoherence with those two model runs.

UKMET lows * 2

Mother nature is gonna do to us what my dad did when he caught me smoking as a kid. We’re gonna smoke the whole carton this winter..

Think its safe to say the 18z Euro was probably a hiccup. No other model is showing snow for NYC.

dumb mf'er who lives across the alley from me got his tesla stuck in the snow. See we live on a street corner, so our house is the closest to the street on the alley. So I shoveled out the alley up to the back of our house and shoveled out our concrete pad (so we could get out, plus my mom was in town until yesterday). He has a garage just a bit further up the alley and he didn't touch it (he didn't shovel most of the sidewalk in front of his house either - lazy POS). So I guess he was trying to back up the alley into his garage and got stuck sideways basically in front of his garage. Had to get a tow truck to pull him out.

so what did the GFS show for 2/5-2/6...

RIC went from 1.9” at 18z to 8.9” at 00z ….

Each run of the GFS? Or has the Euro and/or other guidance shown this as well?

GEFS damn near unchanged since 18z

0z so far hasn’t shown us anything….Can the Euro continue its improvement, or will it snap back to trash/incoherence?

Yea, minus the upstream kicker. Im not sold on any of this if a run shows inconsistencies in placement. Let the Euro run, then stick a fork in it...

Gfs and cmc have a million lows

I say just ask the questions…who cares if you seem like a wishcaster? There’s no hierarchy here but certainly there’s some really smart people here to learn from. There’s nothing to learn from me unfortunately - unless it’s related to medicine. I’ve wondered the same and from what I’ve gathered it’s incredibly tenuous because of the number of variables involved and the models being subject to timing and positional errors. You need the high latitude blocking, proper jet stream configuration, higher amplitude shortwaves, and other “stuff” beyond my scope. But the stars have to align a bit. .