All Activity

GFS should be a better graze, but nothing like the RGEM or Euro is my guess.

Pretty similar through hr 65

Looks very similar to 12z through 51, just everything is a touch north. Seems like it will amp a bit more too. Just gotta hope it isn’t too much; could be good if the lid stays on

Remarkable consistency from the icon. Barely moved from 12z

Yep, small tick NW with the 500mb low. Tiny move though

I can't wait until next Wednesday and Thursday!!!

Gfs might be ever so slightly better through 48?

I think it improved early in the run but then shifted east at the end. The ICON did the same.

Banner start for you. Stowe is a magical place

I’m no Randy but through hr36 the gfs will probably NOT end up a disaster.

The RAP is giving an aggressive bit of snow shower activity overnight, but it suckered me once a few weeks ago. Thermal issues that time though.

Fair question. To frostfern - yeah, the UP would be nice. Or, even just somewhere 45N or north, where temps are more reliably colder and the sun angle is lower. Every little bit helps. My son is thinking about going to Michigan Tech next year, but will probably land on WMU. Anyway - the quick answer is because of the frustration when something good goes away. To me, snow is only meaningful if it stays on the ground, i.e., it "looks and feels like winter". When you walk outside during DJF, this is how it should be. There doesn't need to be 3 feet of snow cover with sub-zero temps, but highs below freezing with reliable snow cover (and no annoying bare spots under trees/open areas/etc.) would be nice. Of course the snowfall itself over the past two weeks was good, but when it all gets wiped away then it ruins everything about it. On top of that - at the moment when I posted my rant, it was because 3 bad things all happened at once, vs. what it had looked like a few days before...or even vs. how things "should be" in winter: (1) Much faster snowmelt than it should have been (2) The Thu & Sat clippers began trending away from the area (3) the mid-late Dec warm-up was becoming more likely instead of just la-la land/model volatility. In other words, we were finally having a good start to winter...and then it vaporized (no pun intended). 3-5 days ago, I was thinking we'd end this upcoming weekend with the highest depth of the season so far, say around 12" (due to surviving the thaw with around 8" and then adding 4" between the two upcoming clippers), then we could coast into a White Christmas even if there were a modest thaw. Now, none of that will happen. The main point still stands - a million things need to go right to get snow in the first place and then keep it on the ground. Even one single above-normal day wipes out nearly all of the snow from the prior 10 days, in addition to the annoying warm soil temps. Soil temps are just one more thing that can go wrong; I never realized how much of an impact that had until recently. Too early in the season, soil temps are warm. Too late in the season, sun angle melts the snow on a normal/sunny winter day. So now our "dependable" winter season is January? No, that's not true either, because most Januarys get into the 40s here a few times, and of course record highs on most days are 50s/60s. That's unacceptable for the heart of winter. Now we have to suffer through a non-good pattern, where it may not feel much like winter from 12/15 through month's end and even into January. The good parts of winter can really be good around here, but they only last a couple of weeks. Winter is 13 weeks, not 2 weeks. It's frustrating when you need everything to align in order to have it look and feel like winter, instead of the calendar dictating it. Snowfall isn't the issue here - it's temps. To me, there should not be puddles and melting in winter. When that happens, it sucks. It doesn't matter whether it's logical to believe that, or if snowfall/temps are "better than normal". When your climo sucks, you need to do a lot to overcome it. Many people on this board seem to take a logical approach, where they're happy when winter is better than climo. But I'm not.

Just absolutely rugged out. 9F, gusty winds, arctic fine flake snow adding 2-3” more today, blowing snow, sub-zero wind chills.

The eternal optimist.

Your words pops.

Will gladly take another 1in here in Whitehall PA.

Yup I'm right up in Hazlet. Been horrible

Icon is better

After years of it in school, that's about the only French I remember.

Looking like the first shovelable snow for a good chunk of the region. Discuss the jawn here. Go Birds!

a three inch snowfall event at my place would be the most we've gotten in almost 3 winters.

Nein

lol Webb going on his weenie crusade when he hypes just as much as literally everyone else on that platform

Its another 2-4" depiction; people shouldn't fret over each run of each model; this is a 1-3 or 2-4 event for most - just sit back and enjoy a little holiday snow