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I don't remember SPC ever updating a Day 4-8 disco before? @high risk @andyhb Day 4-8 Convective Outlook AMEND 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0304 PM CDT Fri Mar 13 2026 Valid 161200Z - 211200Z AMENDED TO EXPAND D4/MONDAY THREAT AREAS ...DISCUSSION... ...Updated discussion for D4... The majority of deterministic and ensemble model guidance agree on a deep midlevel trough and associated cold front that will move eastward across the Appalachians and to the Atlantic coast by Tuesday morning. Severe storms could be ongoing at the beginning of the period along the northeast Gulf coast into GA. The warm sector, characterized by boundary-layer dewpoints in the 60s, will expand northward (generally east of the Appalachians) through the day as far north as PA. Though clouds could limit downstream surface heating somewhat, very strong wind profiles and focused forcing for ascent will favor a continuation of convection along the front, as well as pre-frontal convection, with the potential to produce relatively widespread damaging winds and several tornadoes.
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The image yes
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Is that new? the disco looks the same
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2026 Mid-Atlantic Severe Storm General Discussion
Eskimo Joe replied to Kmlwx's topic in Mid Atlantic
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just 15 short days away
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Chicago NWS Thelatest thinking is that snow accumulations would generally be in the 2-4 inch range (60-80% chance) for this event with the highest amounts forecast to occur north of I-80 and in northwest IL. However, there remains a 15-20% chance for localized amounts upwards of 6 inches to occur. Regardless of the snow amounts, the main concern with wintry side of this system will be the threat for blowing and drifting snow as gusty northwest winds develop behind the low. With wind gusts expected to be in excess of 40-45+ mph Sunday night into Monday any falling snow will be blown around and if snow can be "fluffed" up enough as temperatures cool then some drifting snow may also materialize leading to hazardous travel. Given that there is still uncertainty in snow amounts, rates, and character we have opted to hold off on issuing a Winter Storm Watch with this forecast package. Though if trends continue then a consideration for a winter weather headline will be needed with future forecasts.
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I noticed that too. It definitely was kinda weird there. The wind just gusted pretty crazy here.
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I dunno, end of the month keeps popping up on various modeling for winter wx impacts throughout SNE.
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Yea. Here too, Weird. Smoke from somewhere?
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2026 Mid-Atlantic Severe Storm General Discussion
Eskimo Joe replied to Kmlwx's topic in Mid Atlantic
If things go out way this could go MOD Risk for tor/wind. There's a legit high end potential here. Always good to see a strong jet streak coincide with a trough trying to negative tilt. -
The severe wx from this front will be fun Monday evening
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Now the enhanced and slight marginal etc has expanded to over the parts of the deep and upper south and Osarks mid south region I wonder if we will have high wind warnings with this quite the qlcs tornado spam too
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it is, and that's good to see. i've said before that the folks up north need to create threads and post more often.
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this set-up, with the secondary quick-deepening slp, isn't really a baroclinic zone rider. the path it will take will be fully dependent on wave ejection/interaction/phasing.
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Um ok then https://x.com/MatthewCappucci/status/2032516682770485733 https://x.com/MyRadarWX/status/2032516337373712714
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Snow maps a combination of a few waves. I’ll be living vicariously
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i wouldn't say that i'm optimistic. it's just more-so knowing that nothing is locked in yet (even if some seem to think that it is), and interested in seeing how it all pans out.
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I just need an advisory level slushfest in Central MD. Still seems possible in this winter.
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Finally came out here... URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 327 PM EDT Fri Mar 13 2026 DCZ001-MDZ004>006-011-013-014-016-503>506-VAZ053>055-501-502-505-506- 526-527-132300- /O.EXB.KLWX.WI.Y.0008.000000T0000Z-260313T2300Z/ District of Columbia-Frederick MD-Carroll-Northern Baltimore- Southern Baltimore-Prince Georges-Anne Arundel-Charles-Northwest Montgomery-Central and Southeast Montgomery-Northwest Howard- Central and Southeast Howard-Fairfax-Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-Stafford-Northern Fauquier-Southern Fauquier- Western Loudoun-Eastern Loudoun-Northwest Prince William-Central and Southeast Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park- 327 PM EDT Fri Mar 13 2026 ...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING... * WHAT...South winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph. * WHERE...The Washington Metropolitan area, northern and central Maryland, and northern Virginia. * WHEN...Until 7 PM EDT this evening. * IMPACTS...Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.
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Sky has a bit of a hazy look with an orange tinge to the sunlight.
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Yuck
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Got one here. Was just on a work call and I can hear my balcony furniture rocking (wind here has been legit), have the lawn care company cranking outside, and then an Alexa notification (figured it was a wind advisory).
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we're gonna have a wild fire season
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thanks as I follow you and you may not know, but I have learned a lot from you.
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like 6 people live in the UP, thread quite active considering it's DAB for most areas people live
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