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Woke up to 0.18” nice surprise

Any nit-picked plausibility that's been used to try and abase what is a clear, apodictic implication, notwithstanding ... that 00z operational Euro run fully committed to a heat wave later next week .. LOL At least at 500 mb... This is not "too far west". For heat enthusiasts that was a legit concern, but per this run, you'd be safe for bigger anomalies. And it's 3 days of it, too. D7

Congrats on the mosquitoes

Honestly, I wouldn't mind a few days near 100°. Even though I work outside it's nice to feel the heat for a few days. It lets you know you're alive, and this airmass seems to be more NW flow than some soupy tropical cluster. Those days are miserable.

Even 06z Euro has low 100s for most of the region on Wednesday

It doesn't look great this year because MBY has been relatively dry. Ignore my sad garden lol. Basic story: we bought the house in 2022, very close to the Silver Spring metro in one of the nearby single family neighborhoods. It's on a roughly 50' x 200' lot, so it's a very deep narrow backyard behind the house. It was owned by an older gent who lived alone, and did the absolute bare minimum. I'm talking mow the lawn and that's it - he let a few azaleas grow, but didn't plant anything. Rhododendrons in the back quarter of the yard were overrun by wild grape and other vines. There was a mix of turf grass, weeds, and vines back there. But a lot of it was just urban/suburban weedy unkempt mess. In the summer of 2023 I noticed we had a decent number of fireflies. Less than what I shared in that video above, but enough to notice and appreciate. So I looked into a bit and decided to just let the back quarter of the yard be "wild" - I don't cut the grass, and I use a weedwacker on the more annoying vines that are trying to climb shrubs and trees I'm planting. The grass is scrubby this year because of a lack of rain - in previous years it was more of a rolling field of grain type look. My brother lives in upstate NY on 16 acres of former farm field which is now a meadow slowly returning to forest. He has an absolutely insane number of fireflies that put on a show like in my video, but scaled up by 50x. So I'm trying to replicate that in miniature. I've added a few native trees (swamp white oak, tulip poplars that grow from seedlings and are now 10+ feet tall just in a few years, red maple, red and white oak); and reclaimed the rhododendrons. I think the other important thing I do is drop a bunch of leaf litter back there. Instead of putting it all on the curb in November, I go back there and dump 4-5x trash cans worth of birch, poplar, oak, etc leaves all over the place. I'm a bit worried that the "meadow" is this year losing a battle to wild grape, morning glory, virginia creeper, and even some english ivy that is just everywhere around here. I may have to eventually rent some sort of turf grinder/soil churner type device and replant wildflowers and native grasses. However, 2026 is definitely the best firefly year of the past 4. Sorry for the digression! Back to weather. It's nice out because it's cloudy.

Quite possible yes, but 06z GFS is also quite toasty for Wednesday into Saturday - using 18z 2mT at DCA: 99/101/102/97 I see what you mean on the 00z Euro... that is a big no thanks from me re 2mT. Mid 100s? Blech

That graphic should read "with reduced subsidence into MC"...I'll have to correct that later. Tough catching everything with 4 kids under the age of 7

Lol .04 last night whoopee

Low of 67 with .06” of rain. Might have to start checking some records for next week.

Rain completely fell apart here. Typical

Doesn’t look a day over 69

Yeah perhaps. We thought Memorial Day was kicking off a rainy pattern as well. I’m generally skeptical we go to a AN precip regime before the fall.

I hope he enjoys watching Superman 3 today

You can see how that has edged eastward a bit relative to the mean positioning from the past decade.... I expect that to the theme of the winter....better, but not quite there yet. Excerpt from my June update: What this implies is a season that will maintain some milder warm MC influence in the mean, especially given the degree to which intense El Niño events elevate global temperature, but with greater variability, which may very well appease east coast winter enthusiasts during the climatologically favored interval of the coming winter season. Indeed, it appears as though the wise early hedge is for winter 2026-2027 to have multiple personalities with increased volatility.

Yes more details on this please so I can replicate!

Completely expect MC forcing for much of December and maybe into some of January. Ironically enough, if @snowman19is right, and we are able to vanquish the MC for this season, then it probably means a somewhat colder first half.

Yea, I would gamble with that season again....it could have easily been like 1982 with near average snowfall if that February blizzard made it like 100 miles further north. Just accept that it isn't going to a cold season in the mean.

Except this isn’t happening in a vacuum, it’ll be on top of what fell on Tuesday and will be followed by the start of an active storm pattern to kick off July.

Gun-to-head, I think our area may end up colder than 2015-2016, even though it may be comparable or warmer on a national level.

Last day of school today for NYC public schools

Looks like Toledo is going to graze 100° on Wednesday and Thursday

.05" of rain overnight/this morning. Meh.

Can you take some pics of the meadow area? What did you plant there? You converted turf grass to that ?