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With a juiced jet, I like the chances of some good storms in the region. Where they will hit, who knows, stay tuned. In fact, a family friend always asks my prediction for winter. She just asked today. This was my response: There is a very strong El Nino this winter. So unfortunately a mild winter is expected. The warmest month will likely be December and coldest February. This does not mean no cold/snow/ice, just less than usual. I would expect lots of periods of bare ground unlike last winter which was white, but also a heightened threat for a very strong winter storm or two.

Very strong signal for a warm November IMO

Ive noticed a trend the last few years in the op GFS/GEM where summer heat and winter cold numbers are ridiculous in fantasy range.

It seems today is the day that all the leaves decided it was time to give up.

Where are you living now? Definitely disagree with summer extending 2 months - thats simply not true. However, average temps have risen more in spring/fall. In the southern Great Lakes, we still get accumulating snow in April, frosts/freezes/snow into May, snow in October, and sometimes cold and multiple snows in November. Every year is different of course, but the growing season is not based on an "average" temperature. Spring in particular is often a very dreary season in these parts, so an increase in temps would be beneficial to many a normie, though you will still get the cold/snow late. Chopping a few days off the first/last dates for snow/freezes really doesnt mean much in the grand scheme of things. Detroit first/last freeze *** first/last measurable snow Last 30 years (1997-2026): October 27 – April 21 *** November 20 – April 5 POR (1874-2026): October 22 – April 24 *** November 16 – April 8 Chicago first/last freeze *** first/last measurable snow Last 30 years (1997-2026): October 24 – April 20 *** November 20 – April 2 POR (1872-2026): October 25 – April 18 *** November 17 – April 2

Mowvember looking solid. Hopefully right through Bakesgiving.

Cosgrove’s just released Nov forecast disagrees just slightly : I think that CWG will verify much more closely based on the Euro Weeklies.

Well we clear the very end of October with no strong coastal in time frame and let’s now hope we can do same 11/25-11/30 for favorable analog trend and current mildness also bodes well historically

Torch

Ehhh….we’ll take it next week. Not too worried about what’s down the road.

Temp dropped here too….about 4 degrees from noon. But still beautiful.

Every year the Fall color show is a brilliant show to enjoy, but I cannot recall an October with a more uninterrupted day after day after day routine of enjoying bright colors in the sun. Very light winds and little rain have also prohibited leaves from falling until they slowly flutter down naturally.

Recent 10 day mean CFS runs have warmed for Feb: 10 days ago: Today:

Tooorrcch. Welcome to winter pattern

Spooky season has the skeletons back in the closet, Thanksgiving around the corner, stick season in full swing, and the AN temps to start the month got H E R defrosting extra early. Looks like pleasant 60s/40s to start the month up this way Sent from my SM-S176V using Tapatalk

Just curious....do you have a rough idea of how many bloggers you follow?

Ughh 80 currently. Summer just won't give up.

I bet that damn stratospheric PV split did this.

I like his “high potential” of what can go wrong on the cold side ….that’d be pretty cool.

I see thanks jaxjagman good to know .

It was 10 degrees warmer at 3am than it is now.

Not all winters work like that in a strong NINO.2015-2016 was quite unique an active year.EF3 tornado in Wayne Co in Dec 2015 and a big snow storm in Mid Tn. The 97-98 winter if i recall right,had a big snow around the Cumberland in early Feb driven by dynamical cooling.Over a foot and a half in some areas 1982-83 saw some snow but very little. I still dont see why 2015-2016 gets thrown around in social media.There was some fairly different differences compared to 82-97 and for that matter even this year. 2014 was the early onset of that strong NINO into winter,unlike 1982-1997 and 2026.While no denying 2015 wasnt strong,it still has some repercussions. Into Dec the thermocline of the last three strongest NINOS,the thermocline was much more shallow in the east in 2015,compared to 82-97 just as well pushed even further west past the IDL comparing it to 97. All 3 of the last strongest NINOS were basically just as well NINAS the following winters and resurgent just as well,you can argue 1999 wasnt,but it really was to an extent

Their methodology has a pretty good track record. This does not seem too far fetched

Warm