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It’s 84 here with the usual levels of dewiness to tickle the ol pickle. I’ve no idea what the moose humpers to the north are smoking but it’s business as usual on the coast!

Got about 5F rebound with some sun, but the humidity is gone for sure.

What was your average snowfall on the years you mention Ray? Just wondering.

FYI Mesoscale Discussion 1552 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025 Areas affected...parts of the Northeast and southern New England Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 484... Valid 031957Z - 032200Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 484 continues. SUMMARY...Strong to severe storms will spread east-southeast through early evening. Damaging winds will remain the primary hazard, with isolated large hail possible as well. DISCUSSION...A long-lived supercell that initially formed in southwest NY has produced a swath of damaging winds (with measured gusts of 49-53 kts in the BGM vicinity) and large hail, reported up to golf-ball size thus far. Additional updrafts have formed in both its forward and trailing flank, which should help sustain an organized cluster to the east-southeast over the next few hours with cold pool temperatures dipping into the upper 50s. With upper 80s to around 90 F temperatures from the Lower Hudson Valley east and south, a swath of damaging winds appears probable through early evening. Other multicell clusters will be capable of mainly isolated strong gusts as they impinge on the warmer boundary layer across the coastal plain. ..Grams.. 07/03/2025

CANSIPS July update remains hellbent on a cold winter in the north.

Ive been looking into past heatwaves, primarily 1930s-1950s, and its insane to think how horrible it would be to live through that heat with no AC. The heatwaves were very deadly, and even many hospitals didnt have AC til the late 1940s or 1950s.

Yessssssssssss, hold together mother nature, hold... Together

For comparison, July 2020. Simple arithmetic mean of 99 stations: 77.1F. NCEI reports 76.9F, or 0.2F cooler. If they are conducting some sort of massive increase in recent temperatures, they seem to be omitting the Midwest from the warming. To be honest, the earlier sample has a much greater proportion of center city and rooftop sites, with all of the city observations moved out to suburban airports and the city WSOs closed. So it's actually kind of surprising, there's no deviation from the simple mean, because there are clearly non-climatic biases in the data.

Horrible. Save that shit for Christmas.

Nice line setting up from Manchester to Sterling/RI line

Hopefully better than he handles a daddy longleg.

Here is the average of all available data in Ohio for July 1895: The reported value for that month is 71.1F, just 0.1F different than a simple average of the data. This is not the case for states with more significant elevation changes. Generally, the early data is devoid or limited of high elevation stations, so the simple average is often much higher than the gridded average. But most of the data for the Midwest matches pretty close to the reported data - like I said there are some adjustments made to later decades, but these are reasonable (change in TOBs and instruments). Ideally, we would have just maintained the 5 pm / 6 pm observations and CRS readings, and then there would be no need for any adjustments. But unfortunately, we don't live in the universe where those changes weren't made. I think it is reasonable to consider whether maybe to reinstate them at certain or all sites?

Should be even nicer tomorrow.

Meh, most of what's called adjustments is actually just areal averaging/gridding of the data. With states like Ohio or Illinois, where there aren't huge variations in elevation, and the stations have been pretty well separated throughout history, there's little discrepancy in the pre-1920 data versus what NCEI reports. There's a small decrease to account for observation time, and adjustment for instrument bias, from about the 1920s gradually decreasing in the 1960s to 1970s. Recent decades are generally slightly less. Why - I'm not sure, I guess a small negative UHI adjustment. Obviously, looking at individual sites, there can be significantly larger inhomogeneities - especially with some of them that have been shuttered and/or threaded with a bunch of disparate locations, elevations and site exposures.

Oh no the horror. What a brutal life update…how will you handle it?

impressive event coming

It's all ghosted fake data - no doubt that adjusted data is exacty what they use on CinCin TV networks to show their man made "warming" climate

There was no Cincinnati WSO until nearly 2000 - much of that appears to be made up "ghosted" data as you have referred to it in the past. For the period where there actually is data [i.e., up until the 1960s & 1970s], the adjusted & homogenized final product appears to decrease the trend. Moreover, this is a rooftop urban station. In recent years, temperatures at the airport - several hundred feet higher in elevation, with an aspirated temperature sensor, sited over grass - have exceeded even those lofty early years. Here's what the site looked like in 1947 (see illustration below). I would 100% favor bringing back these stations today and actually reporting the observed temperatures. Guarantee they would be far warmer than whatever is shown on there.

Thanks! 1. Based on the graph, June WCS PDO calculated to be ~-1.8. Based on recent relationships between WCS and NOAA, I had said that that likely meant the June NOAA PDO was likely down to the -2.5 to -2.9 range. So, the -2.51 jibes with my expectations. 2. The unrounded AMJ ONI is -0.11. That means RONI minus ONI, -0.38, has narrowed even more. It was -0.43 in MAM, -0.49 in FMA, -0.51 in JFM, and -0.53 in DJF.

Have a lone cell approaching from IJD, wondering if this hinders later development?

81/60 storm potential looks meh around here

It can work both ways like we saw last summer. The record subtropical warmth and stable conditions lead to the lull in activity from late August into early September. But then it became very active later in the season.

JFK: 3; LGA and NYC: 4; EWR: 6.

Down to 63F here, dews 55F. Got chilly in a hurry.

We had a nice morning for some lawn work here. And I got all the bird poop off the mailbox. It's amazing how much they poop on that thing. Anyway, @HillsdaleMIWeathermight cash in on a rogue storm soon.