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The WPC has a moderate chance for excessive rainfall across southeast Iowa, nw Illinois, and southern Wisconsin this weekend. The forecast has widespread 3-5+ inches across that area.

Don't have many around here. I do have lots of raccoons digging around however so maybe I'll put some bait by the nests.

Is it even in Knox County? I've always pictured it being closer to Maryville than Knoxville.

It almost feels like a nicer airmass moved in this afternoon. The sky is blue, there's a light breeze, and the humidity seems less. I agree with the EWW (Epic Weather Warnings) the NWS issued through the evening.

I've heard about that also. My friend runs a cancer lab might hit him up for some.

Yeah I will probably stay away from the napalm. Did not know brake cleaner was effective. Going to give it a shot tomorrow I have plenty. Might even try Dawn dishwashing soap apparently it drowns them or dries them out afterwards.

EPS looks good this far out

Fire is so 2010s

we can only hope!

Maybe he shouldn't weigh in when he doesn't have the data. There were numerous stretches where Phoenix was at 118°, some of which were five or more minutes long, which precludes his "gust hypothesis." One example from the minute-by-minute readings: Also, NWS Phoenix is one of the few sites with a backup sensor. If the numbers are off, the NWS looks into issue. Finally, from the NWS Phoenix Weather Area, El Centro (118°) missed its monthly mark by 1°; Blythe (120°) missed its monthly mark by 1°; East Mesa (117°) tied its monthly mark, Scottsdale (116°) broke its monthly mark by 1°, and Tacna NE (120°) missed its monthly mark by 1°. Some of these are small communities. Outside of the Phoenix area, Tucson (112°) tied its monthly record.

Also looks like the models are backing off some on the hot temperatures next week.

Still pretty good for this time of year...3.2' at Little Falls: https://www.potomacpaddlesports.com/potomac-river-level.aspx?lnav=resource Years back, when I still could canoe, I think low flow was about 2.8 for float-n-fish trips. Water grows clear in dry periods too. Too clear. Fish notice these things.

I agree with this. The subseasonal forcing that's lining up is very favorable, but it still needs to consolidate out of what looks to be a large wave envelope over marginal SSTs and that's probably going to take quite a bit of time.

I appreciate that, very much...

Wouldn't get too worked up about it just yet. Still a lot of time to derail it. Just keep an eyeball on it. We'll let ya know when we think it's time to worry.

Saw a baby on one of my runs a few weeks ago

I'll be a nervous wreck for the next 5 days I see. Praying this doesn't occur. Not just for the sake of my vacation but for the sake of anyone and everyone along the Gulf and Atlantic coasts.

For Knoxville, location is important. North Knoxville will generally do better than other spots, it's generally more elevated. Also, in addition to key missing data, the airport isn't in Knoxville really. It's SE of Knoxville in an extremely densely paved area. It's warmer and records less snow than folks do even a few miles away now.

Yeah I see a lot of similarities to this upcoming winter from last cold season. If we can get that cold air in here we always have a chance.

Thanks Liberty, you’re not kidding! What a difference from the past number of days. AQI is 1 today which is pretty rare, compared to 100+ with the smoke! .

Best fuel for molotov cocktails is diesel. Spreads flames and doesn’t explode in your face as soon as you light it. if you only have gasoline, and alternative method is to get some styrofoam and mix it with the gas until you get kind of slurry/gelatin. This is essentially napalm - well lets just call it for what it is: its actual Napalm. Don’t get it on you. It is sticky af. You cannot put it out either until its done burning. I think there is enough O in the styrofoam to keep it going even submerged. Very nasty but effective. It also will not explode as easily if mixed properly, so safer than molotov with gas (if safety is a priority). I would reserve these remedies for only the most stubborn wasps. Basic brake cleaner is super effective without even lighting it! Go with that first.

Same to you Rob! .

Incredible weather alert

Beautiful day, but we need rain again. Drove over the Potomac and Shenandoah today near Harper's Ferry and there are lots of rocks exposed again... trees in my neighborhood are also showing signs of stress.

12Z UKMET maps are in at 168 hours. The question on that run for Conus had it gone out further is would the TD have recurved between those two H5 ridges and allow a safe recurve or would that weakness have filled in to block it and result in a U.S. threat? We’ll never know but fun to speculate: 12 UKMET at 168 (8/15 AM) sfc: moving WNW at 18 mph 430 miles ENE of PR: 12Z UKMET at 168 at H5: weakness between ridges just to NW could have later easily recurved it safely from Conus well OTS (though could then threaten Bermuda) had it not filled in but we’ll never know: