All Activity

Rained a quarter inch in the morning through noon. The morning forecast underestimated the system. But it had been so dry the rain was soaked up quickly and the event was fine to be held. It was hot and humid until the sun went down and then cooled off nicely. .

0Z Icon: Humberto pulls 94L ESE to keep it safely away:

Raining nicely here, a bit of lightning and thunder. Enjoyable! 0.30" in the last hour.

Finally getting heavy rain

0.95" Didn't think I would see much of anything here until tomorrow.

No surprise but officially expected to become our next major now. Tropical Storm Humberto Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082025 1100 PM AST Wed Sep 24 2025 The cloud pattern of Humberto has changed little in organization over the past several hours. Some rudimentary convective banding features are evident but the cold cloud tops are rather fragmented at this time. Upper-level outflow is being restricted over the western portion of the circulation, at least partially due to the outflow from disturbance 94L located near Puerto Rico. The current intensity estimate is set at 40 kt in agreement with a recently received scatterometer pass. The storm center is not yet very well-defined so the initial motion is a rather uncertain 300/10 kt. Over the next few days, Humberto should be steered generally west-northwestward to northwestward on the southwestern side of a subtropical mid-level high pressure area. The steering scenario for the tropical cyclone will likely become more complicated in 2-3 days due to the interaction with the developing system 94L to the west. The official forecast track is quite similar to the previous one, and roughly in the middle of the guidance. However, due to the likely complications in the evolution of the steering flow, there is lower than normal confidence in this track forecast. Global models suggest that there will be some relaxation in westerly vertical wind shear over Humberto in the coming days. This, along with very warm ocean waters and a moist mid-level air mass, should lead to strengthening. The system will probably become a hurricane in a couple of days, and then strengthen into a major hurricane. The official intensity forecast is in reasonable agreement with the simple and corrected model consensus, including the latest FSU Superensemble forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/0300Z 20.7N 55.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 25/1200Z 21.4N 56.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 26/0000Z 21.9N 57.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 26/1200Z 22.4N 57.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 27/0000Z 22.9N 58.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 27/1200Z 23.4N 60.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 28/0000Z 24.0N 62.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 29/0000Z 26.3N 66.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 120H 30/0000Z 30.1N 68.9W 100 KT 115 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch/Blake

People who don't live in this area are jealous and always tell me wow you must get great airplane pictures of them taking off and landing. I told them I don't take pictures of air planes for the same reason I don't take pictures of sea gulls, they all look the same to me and once you've seen one you've seen them all.

Caution Liberty …… The coal that appears in your stocking may arrive already lit. As always ….

Big news from Australia’s BoM: their model progs have just switched from 3.4 to relative 3.4 (akin to RONI)! Relative Niño indices Traditional Niño index values were used at the Bureau of Meteorology until September 2025. From September 2025, the Bureau uses Relative Niño indices, which measure sea surface temperature anomalies in the tropical Pacific Ocean in the Niño regions, but calculated relative to the global tropical region temperature anomaly. This is to relate the indices more closely to the localised processes associated with ENSO, rather than larger-scale tropical SST features such as global warming. Example: The Relative Niño3.4 index calculation: Relative Niño3.4 = S x [(Niño3.4obs – Niño3.4clim) – (Tropical Meanobs – Tropical Meanclim)] Here’s the latest BoM relative 3.4 model prog for Relative 3.4, which has a low of -0.7C for OND: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ocean/outlooks/index.shtml?index=nino34#region=NINO34 @snowman19

Getting hit pretty good with this line of storms moving through. Pouring.

I agree with you on the meager STJ and active N stream, but not sure why that necessarily hurts the NORTHeast??......Miller B redevelopments can be fine for New England and upstate NY. Last year was brutal here...all set the with STJ "cooperating" as much as it did last year. I'll take my chances with the N stream over watching Baton Rouge to Nashville getting hit.

Heavy rain and storms are here. Anyone in WNC whose been dry recently will get some much needed rainfall. Those who have seen rain already will be waterlogged.

Hopefully good drink for everybody over the interior of New England tomorrow. Looks dry for a while after.

Tonight's hazards. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk

What was 12z and 18z?

Hopefully we get rain from this

Well you mentioned biases good sir--and believe it or not I'm genuinely curious And have I ever attacked you personally? I mean me ribbing ya a bit on this isn't serious, I promise

Radar looks juiced.

Update: -Season’s ACE is now up to 57.2. -Gabrielle has exceeded earlier progs and is now on its own progged to get ACE to ~60. -Humberto has been declared and is progged to add ACE of ~13 through Sept 30th though with lots of uncertainty, including upside to ~17-20. -That would get ACE to ~73-80. -But that’s not necessarily all as models are now significantly more bullish on still another TC by late this week from Invest 94L. A great level of uncertainty rests with 94L at this very early stage. The upside limit on that through Sept 30 is ~~10. -So, current rough projections are significantly higher for ACE as of Sept 30th. In my quoted prog from 3 days ago, I had the upside at 65-70. That upside limit has since risen to ~83-90. That compares to the 1991-2020 average of 94 through Sept. 30. Thus, if this upside range of 83-90 were to verify, Sept 30th ACE could rise all the way to only a little below the active 30 year average! -Oct-Dec 30 year avg is 28. So, if we were to get to 90 as of Sept 30th, getting to an end of season well over 100 would then be favored along with a reasonable upside of ~130-140 vs 1991-2020 avg of 122. That upside potential is extra realistic because of 1. mainly favorable MJO progged for next few weeks 2. weak La Niña on RONI basis is correlated most to above avg ACE late season 3. Euro Weeklies are active @snowman19@PhiEaglesfan712

These maps tend to skew dry, but still shows it's been a fairly wet last month for CO.

Track it with us