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@GaWx she might think American tourism isn’t her cup of tea

Better than tracking phantom cold fronts that never really happen

I’d rather near ack vs this making landfall in NC and tracking over BGM as a fossil of it’s former self.

Recent dryness will enhance some highs - exceeding forecast by a degree or two perhaps.

With the steering pattern it’s worth a casual eye. That’s it. This is like tracking a HECS signal at D12. Sometimes they turn out real. Most times they don’t. Sometimes it snows in Pensacola.

Biggest hailstones imby since we bought our house in 2018. Did not like the sounds coming off my roof at 5am this morning. 0.59” precipitation with the storm. KMSP 091012Z 18015G22KT 1SM R30L/4500VP6000FT +TSGRRA FEW021 BKN030CB OVC050 22/19 A2984 RMK AO2 LTG DSNT ALQDS GRB12 GR 1/2 TS OHD MOV NE P0036 T02170189

Records: Highs: EWR: 105 (2001) NYC: 103 (2001) LGA: 104 (2001) JFK: 98 (2001) Lows: EWR: 58 (1944) NYC: 57 (1989) LGA: 61 (1962) JFK: 57 (1989) Historical: 1878 - The second most deadly tornado in New England history struck Wallingford CT killing 34 persons, injuring 100 others, and completely destroying thirty homes. The tornado started as a waterspout over a dam on the Quinnipiac River. It was 400 to 600 feet wide, and had a short path length of two miles. (The Weather Channel) 1918: One of the worst hot spells on record occurred in Washington, DC with an average high 99.6°F from 5th to 9th, 106° on 6th. (Ref. Washington Weather Records - KDCA) 1930: The temperature at Perryville, TN reached 113 °F to establish a state maximum temperature record for Tennessee. (Ref. Lowest and Highest Temperatures for the 50 States) 1959: The Richmond International Airport wasn't affected by this storm. It was the west end of Henrico County, VA that received the heavy rain causing flash flooding. The following reference has several pages of information about this storm. (Ref. Daily News Record Newspaper - Harrisonburg, Virginia) 1963: A severe thunderstorm with extremely strong winds struck Stillwater, OK during the night. At Stillwater Municipal Airport, wind speeds were measured between 92 and 115 mph for eight consecutive minutes, with a peak gust reaching 138 mph. The storm did an incredible amount of damage, especially to the Oklahoma State University campus. Winds caused widespread roof and tree damage, and broke windows out of about 130 automobiles. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1969 - A tornado hit Cincinnati OH killing four persons and causing fifteen million dollars property damage. The tornado moved in a southeasterly direction at 40 to 50 mph. (The Weather Channel) 1974: New Jersey--One person was killed when struck by lightning at a rock concert at Atlantic City Race Course. (Ref. Lightning-The Underrated Killer.pdf) 1976: Hurricane Belle formed just to the northwest of the Bahamas on the 6th, rapidly intensified to a Category 3 southeast of North Carolina. Hurricane Belle then began to weaken, moving into western Long Island near Jones Beach as a minimal hurricane during the evening on this date. Hurricane warnings were extended to the coastal sections of New Jersey, New York, Connecticut and Rhode Island where tides as high as 12 to 15 feet were expected. New York City measured a gust to 56 mph. Philadelphia, PA reported 0.51 inches of rain on the 8th, with an additional 1.17 inches on this date. The tide reached 8.8 feet above mean lower low water at Atlantic City, NJ, tying the level reached during the great coastal storm of 3/6/1962, and again reached during the "Perfect Storm" of 10/31/1991. Severe coastal flooding begins at 8.7 feet. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History) 1979: Major flooding occurred on the Lost Creek in West Virginia. Water up to 7 feet deep flooded the town of Clarksburg. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History) 1980: Severe lightning occurred across West Virginia. Two people were struck on a golf course near Vienna, WV. A person standing between the two victims was uninjured. 12 people were injured when lightning struck during a prayer service near Bluefield, WV. Hurricane Allen threatened the Texas coast. Air Force reconnaissance measured a very low central pressure of 909 millibars or 26.84 inches of mercury just in the very early morning hours with maximum sustained winds near 180 mph. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History) 1981: The current all-time record maximum temperature for Portland, OR is now 107 °F set on this date (Extreme Weather p. 276, by Christopher C. Burt) 1987 - Florida baked in the summer heat. Nine cities reported record high temperatures for the date, including Jacksonville with a reading of 101 degrees. Miami FL reported a record high of 98 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) 1988 - Tropical Storm Beryl deluged Biloxi with 6.32 inches of rain in 24 hours, and in three days drenched Pascagoula MS with 15.85 inches of rain. Afternoon and evening thunderstorms produced severe weather in the Southern Plains Region and over the Central High Plains Region. Thunderstorms in Oklahoma producedwind gusts to 92 mph at Harrah. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1989 - Evening thunderstorms in Arizona deluged Yuma with record torrential rains for the second time in two weeks. The rainfall total of 5.25 inches at the Yuma Quartermaster Depot established a state 24 hour record, and was nearly double the normal annual rainfall. Some of the homes were left with four feet of water in them. Seventy-six cities in the south central and eastern U.S. reported record low temperatures for the date. Lake Charles LA equalled their record for August with a low of 61 degrees. Canaan Valley WV was the cold spot in the nation with a low of 32 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1992 - A tornado packing winds estimated between 113 and 157 mph caused significant damage to the town of Chester, South Dakota. Shortly after 7 pm CDT a tornado tore right through the heart of Chester causing considerable damage. Four businesses were destroyed, three others had significant damage, and five had minor damage. An elevator and new grain bin were leveled, and another bin was heavily damaged. Most of the building housing the fire department was demolished. Also, many houses and vehicles sustained damage, and large trees were uprooted or broken off. In one instance a steel beam was thrust through a garage and into the car inside. One mile north of Chester, an entire house was moved off the foundation. The town had to be evacuated for 19 hours after the tornado because the tornado damaged a 12,000-gallon ammonia tank releasing 4,000 gallons of the liquid gas into the air. The ammonia was a health hazard forcing residents out. To the south of Chester, the storm destroyed a new convenience store and blew two fuel tanks over 100 yards. 1997: Severe thunderstorms with very heavy rain began over central Mohave County around 12:30 AM and ended around 2:30 AM MST. Washes rapidly filled in the vicinity of Kingman and several roads were washed out. At least two cars were caught in a flooded wash and their four occupants had to be rescued by helicopter. Also, one woman was found dead hours later in a sewer drainage pond. It is unknown how she was caught in the flood waters. Another serious result occurred a few hours after the storms ended when a passenger train derailed while crossing a small bridge damaged and weakened by flood waters. Of the 302 passengers and crew members aboard, 116 were injured and of those eight sustained serious injuries. Further north, severe thunderstorms rolled across the western part of Las Vegas, NV producing damaging winds and hail. A trailer was destroyed and signs and roofs in the area received damage from both the wind and hail. 19,000 homes lost power for a few hours. The storms also produced local street flooding with rainfall amounts up to 0.73 inches in 15 minutes. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 2001: In New York, the temperature reached a record 103 degrees for the date while in neighboring Newark, N.J., it topped 105 degrees, the National Weather Service said. The old record in both cities was 100, set in 1949. Electricity demand was so high that lights flickered in New York when the metropolitan area suffered scattered outages. New York Gov. George Pataki ordered parking and admission fees waived at parks statewide. In New York City, municipal pools stayed open until 8 p.m. Mayor Rudolph W. Giuliani called on supervisors of city employees to use common sense in delegating responsibilities, saying that “strenuous work is not suggested at this time, unless it’s an absolute emergency.” In Boston, as temperatures approached a record 99, residents and tourists flocked to malls, museums, movie theaters or any place with air-conditioning. 2002: Washington, DC hits 98° and recorded their 8th consecutive day of 95 °F or higher, the longest such streak in recorded history at this time. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 2005: In Eau Claire, WI, a man was struck by lightning while unhooking a chain from a truck. He was taken to a hospital for observation because of “feeling hot,” but otherwise was unhurt. (Weather Guide Calendar with Phenomenal Weather Events 2011 Accord Pub. 2010, USA) 2016: August 9-16. Weak low pressure combined with abundant Gulf moisture produced phenomenal rainfall and flooding across central Louisiana, inundating entire neighborhoods and towns, especially around Lafayette and Baton Rouge. Rainfall totals exceeded 20 inches in as little as two days. Thirteen people died and economic costs ranged from $10 to $15 billion. 2020: In the morning of August 9 Tropical Storm Isaias spawned 8 tornadoes in the Northern Neck of Virginia. See the following two pages about this event.

At least there is something to watch during this stretch of nothingness.

A beautiful weekend is underway! After a chilly start with many spots well down into the 50's with the lowest at our typical chilliest station at the Warwick DEOS with a low at 51.1 degrees. Both today and tomorrow will continue our run of below normal average temperatures but with high temperatures getting close to normal both days. We finally get back to normal August levels by Monday and continue warming with some low spots touching 90 degrees by Wednesday. We stay dry through Wednesday, but shower chances begin to creep up by that night and through the end of the week.

A beautiful weekend is underway! After a chilly start with many spots well down into the 50's with the lowest at our typical chilliest station at the Warwick DEOS with a low at 51.1 degrees. Both today and tomorrow will continue our run of below normal average temperatures but with high temperatures getting close to normal both days. We finally get back to normal August levels by Monday and continue warming with some low spots touching 90 degrees by Wednesday. We stay dry through Wednesday, but shower chances begin to creep up by that night and through the end of the week.

74 / 57 and another sensational summer day for bbq, beach, pool, outsoors. Low - mid 80s sunny and dry. Warmer Sunday, for some to 90 / low 90s and the start of the heatwave. Strong heat focusses more inland and west but most to low 90s through Friday. Peak heat (95+) Tue-Wed, in the hottest spots, perhaps upper 90s. Nest shot at any rain Wed Pm storms. Overall warm - hot / humid and wet with tropical activity. Ridging into the northeast with Atlantic ridge flexing nearby. 8/9 : Warm/dry amazing 8/10 - 8/15 : Hot / Humid - Strongest heat Tue/Wed. Hotter inland and west. Some storms possible Wed PM 8/15 - Beyond : Overall warm - hot / humid , Wet. Tropical activity in the 8/20 ish

close to what? not SNE

Probably heading ENE by then, so eastern SNE gets 60s gusts and a pile of rain while August stays dry here. Had some rumbles about 6 last evening from a TS a few miles north. A bigger system seemed aimed right at us, but it only reached West Farmington, where it died. August precip still 0.00", only 0.13" in the past 19 days and the current forecast has nothing thru Friday (though the AFD mentioned some possible TS midweek).

What a great sunrise. 57/ 56 earlier this morning.

Its close

OI LAD WE HAVE A MAGALUF LAD NOW 0/40 AND ORANGE IT’S COMING HOME A tropical wave that has now emerged offshore the west coast of Africa is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression could form by the middle to latter portion of next week while it moves west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic. Locally heavy rainfall is possible Sunday and Monday across portions of the Cabo Verde Islands. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

The tenor of eps is fish. No way around it

Good call 12 days out..

Agreed… MDT is running -3.9 below normal temperature this month to date.

53 in Muttontown & 54 in Syosset this morning.

As a wise Wolfie has said many times.. things can change , no one knows , maybe it will maybe it won’t , we track

Lots of anomalous ridiging in the forecast around D10.... but that of course could favor FL just as much as New England. I'm sure it'll whiff.

Would that throw 60 mph gusts west ? Let’s get this up the CTRV

Persistent easterlies being modeled over the tropical Pacific this month….I think next month’s long range model updates are going to move further towards a La Niña event for this coming fall/winter…..

No doubt.