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Scratch that as others have pointed out it looks to phasing with the NS instead of being killed by it. This is exactly how the new CMC at 0z got us a complete ice storm as it jacked the whole track way north. Though the 12z CMC seems to be a bit further south so it may crush us

12z GFS = Carolina Crusher

Looks like will be good

Even with getting 5-10in of snow - seeing it fall throughout the day would be the real winner for me here! LOL!

That's prob 8-10 inches if it's going to be in the midteens while it's snowing. A little less suppression like the previous run and you get 15+ inches of crazy fluffy stuff .

It’s going to be a good battle, lots of gulf moisture and energy and really strong confluence

This is good. This is very Euro-like. These piece here grabs our Baja SW.. and boom.

Cmc guys

I don't know what will happen, but GFS is stubborn on that baja low and it's still off the coast at 150. CMC has it coming inland at 100.

Leaning in the direction of suppression for here but holy hell is this going to be extremely high impact across the mid South and probably even to the Gulf Coast again. If I was in say Houston I would be very concerned again for a significant ice storm...seeing the GFS as cold as it is with that boundary nearby...raises big concerns. GFS has often in the past been one of the last to catch up to the extent of llvl cold down there with these Arctic fronts

Just watching the GEM roll. At 72 hours, its Yukon high is smidge stronger at 1050 when compared to 0z. I noticed the same minor change in increasing expansiveness of that hp early in the ongoing GFS run. At 81, the hp is at 1053. I have to think another suppressed solution is incoming. I don't know for sure, but I would guess that.

Canadian is gonna be more amped

Nothing sucks more than sunny and bitter cold. If sunny, then let's be warmer. If cold, then let's get some snow

Actually a 3rd one post 300

2014 the bay did ice over, but it was deemed too thin (4" at the shoreline) for ice boat racing. 2015 was more significant, at least in my memory. We had the ice boats out there, think we measured 7" off Good Luck Point and Wannamaker Cove. I remember somebody's truck went through the ice off Pine Beach in March. I guess my subjective definition of "completely freezing over" is thick enough for the ice boats (6")

Sheesh. Last time Mrs Drummer saw 12in in CLT was 2014 before we had kids and had three date nights.

Long duration event. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk

9.75 this weekend and maybe add a little tonight if we can get a squall..

Not for us in North Central MD

with snowfall ratio's higher than 10:1 probably

Yes this looks good

Comparison of the 1/19 6z and 12z GFS runs: 6z: 12z:

CMC so far with a bit less suppressed of a south west though I doubt it fully can climb to us.

So did 6z ai euro