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heh...not sure how to use that 'multiquote' but ha, nice to see the agreement among Mets there

I’m only ever on here on phone . I don’t see any sigs. People actually still log on here on computers? It’s probably been 2019 since I last used a PC for here

WB 12Z 3K NAM....rain and wind incoming...

since youre off, maybe its time to update that sig, winter 18-19 is a little out of date

Negative NAO doing its work

For reference, the December and January snowfalls for New York City (1980-Present) with the teleconnections you listed:

I never said otherwise; in fact, when replying to a member who said, "I guess snow falling from the sky without accumulating is considered measurable nowadays," I replied with, "Measurable snow is considered .1" or more." The comment I was addressing was "not even a single trace, much less multiple instances" had occurred in the Hickory/Catawba County area. I replied to that comment saying that there had been multiple reports on social media of snow falling on different dates, which confirms that at least a trace of snow had fallen on more than one occasion so far this winter. I think most would agree that seeing snow falling on three or four separate occasions at any given location in NC outside of the mountains before mid-December, even if it melts on contact, is impressive.

Never too early .. especially when on PTO

https://arstechnica.com/science/2025/12/trump-admin-threatens-to-break-up-major-climate-research-center/ Ik people stay away from politics here, but this would be awful if it happened. even if nothing happens (it probably won't), I hate that our field is politicized needlessly, and this really undermines the stability of the work they do at ncar

It happened a lot last year too iirc. It wasn't a high snowfall winter but last winter was certainly more old school flavor than the last 15+ years. 2013-15 was an extreme/unusual pattern. Last year was different in that respect. Intuition has been prodding me last couple years that the decadal or whatever it is blocking cycle was flipping and this year is basically confirming it (for now at least). Doesn't mean every winter will be blocky but it does imply that 8 out of 10 or 10 out of 13 will be blocking friendly based on history. We can worry about that later after the NAO does some magic this year haha

Nope and thats where we blew the forecast pretty hard. i had 1-2/2-4 in areas that picked up over 6. Everywhere else the forecast did pretty well though

It was still strengthening at that point previous frame was 964mb.. but im sure it was about to max out

This is our only way out in the near future and it’s starting to show in the LR: east based NAO starts trending west, get a 50/50 low in the right spot and send our death ridge closer to the Rockies and see what we can do. We’re going to have to bully the Pacific pattern, which I’m not sure is possible, but that’s what it’s going to take. Positive steps overnight and it appears the PNA gets a lot closer to neutral by the end of the month.

too early for

from your lips....

Is this the year the can warmth just gets can kicked?

Facilitated by a legit dipole block that is textbook perfect at h5- that 50-50 low isn't escaping so the upper convergence/confluence to the west is persistent, keeping the high in place in an ideal spot. Hopefully we see something like this at some point in the coming weeks. Nice to see the block having some persistence on the guidance. We gonna need it.

You are very welcome

I appreciate the effort you have put in.

I feel a little better overall today vs a few days ago seeing that -NAO. It started to look a little dire with an overall +AO.

Oddly with enough warmth tomorrow - we could see or approach record highs (EWR-60 / NYC - 58)

What’s weird is the SE ridge is kind of displaced westward right now on weeklies…a little different than a few days ago…and the heights even further SE like near Bahamas/off SE coast are actually BN. Kind of weird…almost El Niño-ish.

I got 1/4" from some squalls in between.