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In Mid Tn some of most catastrophic ice storms happen during a more or less in a moderate NINO.I.E 1951 and 1994,we in general in Tn have have two distinct weather patterns east and west of the Cumberland Plateau.In a NINA a ice storm is more common east of the Cumberland,during a NINO its west. We get some of our best winter storms in a NINO than compared to a NINA around Nashville.Though in general it starts out with ZR and/or IP before the columns cool to become all SN

As we wait hopefully not several weeks for next snow, we have small disturbance overnight Saturday which can bring maybe an inch or so.

Stay safe

Nothing before that? LOL

We live in the Mid Atlantic. "Workable" patterns are what we have to work with, if we are lucky. Sometimes they yield something, other times not so much. With certainty, we have HH everyday though.

Snow shower in bridgewater

The replacement for the GGEM looking pretty wild by the 12th. Straightens that Pacific right out with the block not yet completely out of the picture either. This model is a physics and AI hybrid which I think might be a pretty good concept. Then you have the EPS AI Ensemble which is not really disagreeing with that same idea either. That's a little interesting, although now that I'm pointing it out I'm sure both drastically change next run

That's the week I took off for my 'stay'cation a couple months back, so LFG!

WB latest EPS extended. Three weeks until our snowy week.

All the talk about a “workable” pattern gives me the same vibes as the sign when you get off 495 to jump in Route 1 South that states PG County: A “ liveable” community. Congrats, you could survive here and it wouldn’t be awful. Sign me up.

People shouldn’t have a problem with reality.

I realize im breaking my own rules looking ahead, but to keep the jumpers from jumping, the CFS establishes a decent quasi CPF by mid-month thru early Feb. EPO ridging and a flattened SER.

It brought cold and dry and an early end to winter. It was a miserable winter here.

ah, gotcha

We won't know until the data is posted this evening. There were no local storm reports.

I think you misread, he said continental view, not continental flow.

not sure where that poster's getting 'continental flow' out of that 'after the 11th' but what does that mean, 'continental flow'? anyway, those trough nadirs are hitting a min as the 15th is arriving. classical interpretation would suggest there's a storm nested in that time range - but ... i suspect if there is, we need to get past the 7th .. 8th or so before that materializes.

That almost looks too perfect

Especially the fact that it’s always at the end of the runs.

I'm not sure why you worry so much about the very end of the ens runs. You know this is subject to larger errors. I have done some analysis of each of the big 3(GEFS/EPS/GEPS) over multiple consecutive runs(fwiw lol), and I think there is a decent shot at a snow event mid month, +/- a day or so. Building EPO ridge, SW trough undercutting the western ridge with energy ejecting eastward, and a pretty solid look in the NA. All models to varying degrees indicate significant precip in the Tennessee valley with height lines oriented SW to NE. Ofc it might not work out but there is potential in that window on guidance. If it torches beyond that, so be it. As we know, these modeled warmups in the LR have been perpetually pushed back for months lol.

The 12z AI Euro & AI GEFS also show a very workable look in the day 10 to 15 period.

I’m guessing this is why Webb didn’t change back to heat miser?

Did any of the local airports or Central Park report any measurable snow from last night?

12z Synopsis EPS, EPS AI, CMC ensemble, & GEFS AI ensemble all have a very workable & generally similar look in the day 10 to 15 period. Only the GEFS looked different…but @CAPE said that it looked workable as well.