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I suspect the problem is more too many competing shortwaves in an evolving longwave pattern, along with a brisk northern stream, than the MJO. For the most part, the guidance has suggested that the 500 mb pattern would favor a more offshore solution than one that would bring a moderate/significant snowfall to the big cities assuming one placed greater weight on the 500 mb solutions from the higher-performing guidance. The GFS had been the notable exception with a little support from last night's GGEM. There's still some latitude for change, but a big storm is outside the range of realistic scenarios. Back to the MJO, since 2000, the New York City area has had several large snowstorms when the MJO was in Phase 6 at a high amplitude in January. Those storms were: January 11-12, 2011: 9.1"; January 21-22, 2014: 11.5"; and, January 31-February 3, 2021: 17.4". Overall, we're in a transitional situation that continues to favor smaller snowfalls, when they occur. Any snowfall is still better than none, if one likes the snow (as I do).

Clown range for both of them. Want to see GFS come back NW and euro make a move at 12z. Really the only two that matter at 72-84h. The mesos will become slightly more useful as we get closer but not really that trustworthy until like < 48h

Steve D says La Nina is over once the MJO goes into 7 and 8.

Winter will return in full force and have staying power when the MJO goes into 7 then 8 and 1. This looks great.

OK, see ya.

Do you really hate to be the one to say it? Since you say it constantly I sense otherwise.

We suck.

Reggie and RRFS long range are way west

Half inch at the house but barely a dusting coming through Boone. Sent from my Pixel 10 Pro using Tapatalk

I'm beginning to believe something like this is our best shot at accumulating snow with rain changing over to snow at the end

North of the Tappan Zee, so the Canadian border essentially to many here. 38/36 currently, waiting on the cold front, .03 of rain over the past 24 hours. <yawn>

This is classic windshield wiper model shenanigans. I wouldn’t write this off just yet but a glancing blow that happens Eastern New England is most likely.

Yeah I don't think there is any convective feedback issue going on here...hardly any, if any, convection with this anyways in the Southeast

I'll go the Bilbo Baggins route for this one!... "I don't know half of you half as well as I should like; and I like less than half of you half as well as you deserve."

Yea, I was assuming baseline.

It really comes down to h5 and the timing/interaction between the pieces of energy and whether it consolidates in time to take on a neutral/negative tilt. At this point probably a light event is still on the table, but that would probably be more for coastal areas, maybe to I-95. Current guidance only has an inch or 2 for the coastal areas of NC and SE VA...that's the jackpot lol. Its weak and mostly offshore.

Agreed...I think it's going to be until Friday or Saturday before we have a true gasp on the 500mb evolution.

Yeah I mean a bad trend at 12z might be enough to mostly write off any chance at a warning event but even with a poor trend at 12z, hard to punt any accumulating snow for eastern areas yet. It would have to be a severe trend I think.

Oh, boy Miami rule porking.

Say it with my guys and one outlier girl..."I'm a good person and I deserve snow.....but my life with or without snow has value". Breathe......and....repeat......

no, it's vestigial of S/W moving into/through a compressed field

Hopefully nobody expected a KU, but I’m 100% done with another 1-2” of sublimation. If I could move to Fl I would. This is meteorological solitary confinement.

Get a feeling the 12z NAM is going to be a hit of epic proportions

That’s a pretty crazy discrepancy from the Euro and EPS

SREFS look threatening