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I had a sheet of ice on my asphalt driveway this morning and almost slipped on my backside. Not expected or forecasted. Hunter is right about the short-term guidance. We've been monitoring the Globals for a week now. Attention turns to the shorter range high resolution guidance for more nuanced possibilities.

All I can think of is break dancing when I look at those maps.

Main takeaway is the NAM puts itself in Euro's camp, even though it trended a touch colder.

I know people are blowing off the NAM as crazy, which it probably is, but if it is handling dynamics correctly and it shows that sleet line progress so quickly I wouldn’t bet against it. I was in NYC for the Boxing Day storm and from a couple days out it was hammering a quick changeover that the other models didn’t have and it was completely right.

At the end of the 3k NAM run, it has the snow/sleet line notably south of 12k NAM in Kentucky. Maybe 50mi? fwiw NAM thermals are definitely worth watching, but like starting with tomorrows 12z or 18z?

Double edged sword, IMO. "Potential for significant winter weather" likely does not move the public needle enough in the event a devastating, 2002-esque ice storm does come to pass. I do agree that anyone with an iota of Carolinas forecasting experience should know better than to make p-type specific projections beyond three days lol

RGEM next up

I wouldn’t trust the NAM at 84 hours but you never know.

I'm worried too but my only hopium is that it is a true artic airmass (in place before the storm) will be a little more stubborn than usual WAA. I've been here too long. That warm air aloft ALWAYS comes in quicker than modeled. I've been telling friends 6-10 so hopefully at least 6" can be reached.

How long until we get storm cancel from people?

Can't expect the Nam to get all thermals correct at the far reaches of its forecast period. And it's the far teaches where thermals become an important factor in final snow totals.

does the NAM ever lead a trend?

And it’s the NAM at 84 so take it for what it is worth.

Waiting on better locked in hires stuff to assist forecasting where all this sets up and for how long for precip types.. Really tough to make those calls attm.

2"

I can't help myself - I'm watching column max temps and how they progress. Here's how they compare at HR 60 across the models that PW has with that metric. It's a good sign to me that the 3K NAM is a touch colder. People can hate on it all they want, but I've learned to not bet against 3K NAM temp profiles (good or bad) within 24-36 hours (though this is obviously outside that range).

Still getting a chuckle out of this... maybe if we were at 10K feet in Little Cottonwood Canyon in Utah during an upslope storm...

I'm going to post the Correlation Coefficient to annoy @mattie g

I've officially given up on this storm for Knoxville. I think it might start out as a little snow, switch to sleet/freezing rain, and then end as a cold rain that will, hopefully, melt any sleet/freezing rain accumulation we receive. While the end result has been disappointing, it has been fun tracking the storm with everyone! I'm going to have nightmares the next time I hear the term "baja low"!

I think developing El Niño summers(which we might have this summer) tend to have ridging and heat out there too.

The only thing NAM did was not give the warm and fuzzies of passing around 20” Kuchera maps. Don’t think it changes much at this point.

Per Ken Graham, this is going to be the first time they run wintertime recon in the Pacific and Gulf. Big Dog FTW

He was also in the same thread talkin about not seeing a strong chance for vast dry slotting. He seem to think it’s wet wet.

It turned from overruning to an amped miller B.

Yeah but its the NAM at 84hours. Thats like the GFS at 144 isn't it?