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This narrow band is right at the front

Hard to say nws thinks so. However, strong frontogenesis, marginal instability, and gusty west winds along and just ahead of the cold front will create a good chance for a line of moderate to heavy snow showers, and perhaps a snow squall. Latest CAMs are in good agreement at this time. The cold front will quickly move across the area, passing eastern LI/SE CT 8-9 am.

The lit up Washington Monument for America’s 250th is neat

12/5: 1.3" 12/14: 1.8" 12/31: 0.2" T: 3.3"

hmmm

So that’s what those snow ens charts look like when Steve doesn’t post them.

I want to do a little experiment.. CPC vs Natural Gas Futures. I am so tempted to trade this on my own, but I think a series of practice scenarios played out will give me a higher confidence, instead of jumping right in. Since mid-August, the pattern in the East has been cool. Don't quote me, but it might have been our coldest 4.5 month period relative to average in 10+ years. I personally think the Solar Max, with aurora borealis extending south, starting in May 2024, and lasting through Fall 2025 was associated with a pattern that gave us a lot of negative 500mb height anomalies 60-90N, for the first time since a 2020-2023: a period that was always warm 500mb everywhere. I made a list of analogs that had that warm season pattern (-SLP 60-90N), and it gave me a strong -AO signal for the following cold season (data good since 2012). CPC forecast today is going with a cold January in the Northeast! What's interesting is the very warm forecast for the 1st half of January, released the same time (today): That means Jan 18-31 is projected to be very below average in the Northeast.. now the first 5 days of the month are also cold with -NAO, but it's still a pretty big difference that needs to occur for the 2nd half of the month for that monthly forecast to verify. Natural Gas has been falling, and the March contract at $3.159 is very cheap, and favors a more +NAO Winter (I used a $4.50 as an "even" mark.. below it is more +NAO expected, above is more -NAO expected) The theory is, when and if it gets very cold in the 2nd half of January, will Natural Gas start rising every day, or is the forecast already baked in? I don't think it's in the market, or else the price would be higher in my opinion. I'm only talking about a 2 week period, so the difference will not be big, but let's see if the price rises, when and if it rises, in the 2nd half of January. To be continued...

Jax is such a straight shooter...I didn't even consider it a typo. Keeping it raw, rapid, and real in the moment, those missing characters can and will find you. Part of the fun as posters on a mission. Not to mention, when shortcuts fail, shift happens. *Crickets* I'll see myself out. Happy New Year, everyone!

Definitely more desperate.

Not a chance i see no squall at this rate

Snow squalls and people leaving the bar at the same time on New Year's Eve, 2:00 a.m. sounds great, perfect timing!

Assuming you’re trolling, because no one knows anything past ten days. Sure, it could be mild, but you can always sneak a storm in. Just like it could be cold but dry. .

You remember last year, correct? Thunder bangers and a light show. Wasn't snow but different...

I did 2 ways. Freaking delicious.

I like to consider what drivers are quantifiably most anomalous. Magnitude generally matters. If the MJO is COD and you have a blocking tele that is extremed to one side of the ledger, I tend to give more credence to the latter. Granted, I still have much to learn when it comes to analyzing the atmosphere, especially 'cross-the-globe signals ending in torque or momentum. Three years in met school back in the day and some of the stuff we're talking about wasn't even a topic of conversation.

Fun times between Buffalo and Cleveland right now.

Well tonight we are getting different amounts . Trends on models are bringing s stream in for at minimum another advisory event like tonight

And thus the reason why writing off something 10+ days from now is ludicrous. Nina = short/medium range surprises quite frequently. Not saying this is a hit but those were some big ticket changes in under 36hrs.

DCA _ NYC _ BOS _ ORD _ ATL _ IAH _ DEN _ PHX _ SEA -0.5 -1.9 -2.0 -0.2 2.2 3.8 2.0 2.7 2.0

Show me where 2-4 is modeled outside of a few locations and don’t include NNE. tonight 1-2 as a long shot. Sunday night flurries. Mid week is 7 days away. Why would you want a this with very little water in the snow and as such much more meltable vs a meaty SWFE?

He drew it wearing nothing but his white hotel Teri cloth robe

We're so close.

Ball drop and squall line

oh haha. I did. It see that.

27° Some moderate snow here. Nothing melting that’s for sure. Everything is covered cars, roads. Maybe take a measurement in a little while.