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Powell, I hate to hear that. Hang in there.

JB, Steve D , DT and Henry Marquisity also.

I am honestly on the fence with it. Typically we only see a full destruction of the SPV 1-2 times a decade. I have a feeling we may have to wait but hope I am wrong.

Incoming rain junk heading in. Dark-gloomy-ominous looking clouds outside... 50F/Going to be a raw night/Sat

you're right. just kinda hard to take sometimes when someone's insulting your intelligence in that way. i worked my ass off for this lmao

The Euro Weeklies this afternoon definitely support that CFS MJO map. Get a good window from say Jan15-22nd-ish. Then, we roll a ridge complex through to end the month, then do it again to start February. The interesting thing will be if the cold can actually retreat or if it gets trapped under a HL block. The Euro control had the EC cold throughout the run. Just kind of seems like it is going to be difficult to push the cold out of the pattern for long periods of time, but I could be wrong! Ripe, ripe, ripe for an ice storm if we push a 500 ridge into the SE but the surface doesn't respond to the AN heights, ie stays cold.

You don’t have to engage. We all seen your posts and your reasoning and the quality of your posts. It should just roll off your back.

I took the photo below in April 2024. This from a park in upstate NY called Mexico Point State Park. It’s on the shore of Lake Ontario right in the heart of the snow belt country. It looks and feels like the shore of LI Sound. A town called Pulaski just a few miles away recorded 4 feet of snow in two days with a lake effect event in the past two weeks. If you want to see KU style snow events each year this is where you need to be.

I don't want to "attack" anybody. I'm going to stop responding to specific posts that are personal in nature. I've made my point. Wishing deep snow for everybody.

That depends. Did you vote for DJT?

Posting something showing a trend or what not is not a forecast. You have no idea what he forecastsor what his record is. So it’s kind of shitty for you to attack his expertise. It’s a Weather forum. This forum really shouldn’t be used as a grade of people’s forecasting skills, unless they put their balls out there. If you want to grade people on how they talk about the pattern, feel free to go ahead and personally I think he knows his stuff because when I see his posts describing the pattern, I don’t necessarily disagree with his reasoning. So don’t be a dick and attack someone who is a degreed met. This field already has enough dicks in it.

I disagree. Prove me wrong. I've been posting on this board for a very long time. I've never read a solid forecast from you. Maybe you only provide them privately. You post the same thing on several sub forums. It's pretty much always the same thing.

i literally won most forecasting competitions in my classes at school and had a negative Z-score in WxChallenge. just stop it

Really can't beat this, with temperatures nearing 70F in southeast Ohio.

12Z GFS is a beaut for NE NC/SE VA late next week!

Encouraging 3-4 week outlook. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/

I think one of the big issues with storm 1 is its coming down too far east and doesn't have time to dig enough to our west and amplify. If we can move the trough slightly west and continue the trend of having a taller western ridge we could still score from that one.

Legitimate critique. Which you've never offered ever. We can have a competition if you want. Let's compare degrees, or professions, or have a forecasting competition.

lol the people at my job that I actually forecast for would beg to disagree. you're just an ass

Game Time: THIS MAY CHANGE A BIT BY EARLY SATURDAY EVENING AS A SUBTLE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS PUSHES SOUTHEAST OUT OF IOWA AND WISCONSIN AHEAD OF A ROBUST 700-500 MB VORT LOBE. AIR TEMPERATURES WILL BE FALLING QUICKLY INTO THE 20S DURING THIS PERIOD, AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A QUICK INCREASE IN BOUNDARY LAYER LAPSE RATES AND MOISTURE. HAVE INCREASED POPS A BIT SATURDAY EVENING, WITH A MENTION OF SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS PRETTY MUCH ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA. NOT CURRENTLY TO THE LEVEL OF A SIGNIFICANT SNOW SQUALL SET UP, BUT QUICK COATINGS WITH WIND- WHIPPED SNOW SHOWERS APPEARS TO BE ON THE TABLE, MAINLY DURING THE 6 PM SATURDAY TO 1 AM SUNDAY TIMEFRAME. WITH SOME FORECAST GUIDANCE (EXTENDED RAP FOR EXAMPLE) DEVELOPING UPWARDS OF 50-75 J/KG OF NEAR-SURFACE CAPE (WHICH MIGHT BE A BIT OVERDONE), CAN'T RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME TRUE SQUALL-LIKE ACTION IN SPOTS, SO SOMETHING WE'LL KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON.

Put about a 5-7 day lag on that CFS map, and we are looking at big easter trough by the end of week 1 of Feb or the very beginning of week 2.

People like his posts because he is a cheerleader for snow. And that's what people want to hear to make them feel better. But we should be better than that.

I've followed him for multiple years and he has a poor track record with medium and long range forecasting. I respect his enthusiasm a lot, but he is not yet a good forecaster. Brooklyn does not know what he does not know. He is young and inexperienced and has an unrelenting positive bias. It's relatively straight-forward to describe long-range ensemble anomaly charts in numerical terms and translate that to known pattern configurations. But that doesn't make you a good forecaster at all. Of the hundreds of times he has created an animation to illustrate a positive trend, exceedingly few have preceded a snowy outcome. If you knew me personally or bothered to read my posts, you would know that I am not a troll. I believe in facts and science, not BS and voodoo.

Edicks attacked Brooklyn99

it's happened before so it's not impossible! improbable but not impossible