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Back on now, although mostly from PIT north now.

The HRRR is way too cold vs all guidance, tonight. No reason to buy that with the clouds moving in after sunset and torching above the surface starting by midnight.

I'm happy with a few 1"-3" events. Just want snow.

If Lamar had been able to go Monken would have done the usual nonsensical shit. Our best chance to win seems to be with Huntley managing the game, throwing for 100 yds and mostly handing the ball off. The mediocre OL does better run blocking.

Radar looks awesome for you. Enjoy! Can't say I'm not jealous...

Looking out my window, seems to be all snow at this point. Deck is getting slushy

Seeing some TSSN+ showing up in MN, and MSP should be flipping over now (if it hasn't already).

And rainy day means Rodgers will have issues

The salt usage is an interesting debate. Studies show far more is used than is needed, leading to increasing environmental impacts. On the other hand, it can be snowing 1"/hr and people are still blasting road conditions on social media. 93 goes between Canobie Lake and Cobbetts Pond here in Windham and both have elevated chloride levels.

I was thinking the same thing. The Maine storm was really dense--and more of it. We'll be fine there because of that.

Most likely we would be looking at something on the light side in that window, although I wouldn't be surprised to see something a little more significant slide across the south.

Well he didn't ride the bench this game

Incredible winter morning out there Top 5er

Same here. No melting yesterday. Snow depth yesterday morning was 2.8" and this morning 2.6" from a little compaction. 100% coverage and roof tops and trees still snow covered.

satisfied with WWA ... just the grease factor is enough to send SUVs pirouetting down highways while the entitled arrogance at the wheel is all confused how their elitist automobile is doing that. I seriously saw this once. Maybe some kind of overpass web-cam situated overlooking stretch of Dallas highway ... with an assortment of SUVs parked at angles in the median and shoulder, while regular sedans at least limped slowly through in curiosity before going about their way. Next SUV comes into the frame spinning around ...smash! Next Toyota Corrola drives through the scene ... This went in until the video clip ended where the less self-important environmental pig the vehicle was, the safer it apparently traversed the icy course. LOL I never got a full explanation but ...it seems to me, 3.5 ton 60k SUVs might be overrated in popularity

Maybe it’s just me, but I don’t think the Dec 29-Jan 5 window favors EC snowstorms (apart from lighter snows that don’t pop up in modeling until less than 5 days). But once the +PNA develops after Jan 5 (if it does), all bets are off.

There are many maps floating around and I’m wondering what the opinion is here about SW Michigan (Kalamazoo in the lake effect belt). We are getting pouring rain right now. Will this turn into a blizzard or just an annoying 4 inch snow after one inch of rain?

I do that Gone are the days of getting into an ice cold car.

We have seen this look in some recent winters- a TPV/vorticity lobe under the GL ridge forming the block, with lower heights extending towards 50-50, but southward displaced. A lot of NS action with that look so could be some fun tracking lol. Getting a southern storm to gain latitude/not get sheared out may be a challenge for the Jan 3-5 window.

Yeah if you are getting 0.10”/hr or more QPF, even at 28F, that’s going to try very hard to quickly get to 32F through latent heat release. I think we see a lot of 0.1-0.25” type ice with driving on cold pavement, cold dirt roads and side roads as the bigger issue.

Hrrr is also on the southern edge of guidance with the initial waa burst. Nam/euro are further north with the bulk of it and have alot less qpf from SNH southward

January looks to get off to a cool start in the eastern U.S. and Great Lakes Region. The Southwest will likely remain abnormally warm for at least the opening of January. The latest EPS teleconnection forecast calls for the development of a predominant WPO+/EPO+/AO-/PNA+ pattern. It may take some time for the PNA+ to develop. That's probably where the greatest uncertainty lies. An alternative scenario involves a continuation of the WPO-/PNA- in combination with the EPO+/AO-. If the PNA+ fails to develop and the WPO goes positive, warmth could develop on a larger scale across North America with the cold being limited to mainly Alaska and Canada. That is currently a low probability outcome but a wildcard that can't be dismissed. EPS 9-13 Day Outlook: WPO+/EPO+/AO-/PNA+ (January 1-10, 1980-2025): ECMWF Weeklies (December 29-January 5): ECMWF Weeklies (January 5-January 12): The development of a predominant WPO+/EPO+/AO-/PNA+ pattern is the baseline scenario. Despite some social media rumors of a big snowstorm in parts of the East during the first 7-10 days of January, the forecast teleconnections typically do not favor large East Coast snowstorms. Instead, they favor lighter snows. For reference, New York City had no 6' or above snowstorms during January 1-10, 1950-2025 with a WPO+/EPO+/AO-/PNA+ pattern.

Mixed precip just started here. Should transition to all snow pretty quickly.

I'm telling you the synoptic limitations that are in the actual models. The interpretation after the fact, not sure where this 'I gotta bad feeling ...' trope is necessitated from. Using your worlds, we can't even support the doom interpretation: 'even if 50%' ...well, 50% of what. .9 accretion? that's arithmetically only .45, less than standard warning ice. Ice "storms" don't typically manifest the way this is modeled for a reason. The event timing is too fast. Falls rates may be moderate, and accretion efficient for a time, but it's moving off way, waaay faster than climo icestorm typology. Yeah, 2007 ... but that was a unique situation, and it was also longer than this will be, too. As icing sets up, it release latent heat of phase change; there need be a constant lower DP source to offset this physical process of fixing. There is no source for that. EDIT, ah, I just saw you responded.

No explanation, but I have to mention that someone posted JB saying he thought a trough would retrograde from the east. Maybe he was on to something.