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Son of a gun, I remember that! Was on Skyline Drive in Virginia heading north in my Olds 88 when a freak, violent snowstorm struck. With strong winds and cannon shots of thunder drifts built on the road so quickly I (and everyone else) got stuck. We had to wait for a snow plow to clear the drifts before we could move again. When finally getting down from the mountains saw it had only rained just below us. WILD!

one thing out of all your analysis is the GFS ensembles are west from the previous run

Yup!

Just trying to stay positive as we are damp and cold outside today....anything to stay away from brown glaciers later on. Saturday looks decent for us, for now at least. Would love to grab 1-3, before Sunday

Yep, same… although my schedule sadly includes beer-tasting “work.” It’s a tough life, but I shoulder the responsibility so others don’t have to. A real sacrifice. That said—LET’S GO SNOW! You people living in fantasy land, do your thing and bring it home.

Significant Snows Possible Latter Half Of Holiday Weekend Eastern Mass Weather asserted late last week that a significant storm was highly unlikely to materialize on Friday into Saturday. However, there was a distinct possibility that the follow up wave could produce major winter storm this coming Sunday Monday, due in large part to subtle changes in the orientation of the western CONUS ridge. There is now a growing signal amongst guidance that such a storm may indeed materialize. Synoptic Overview There are no changes with respect to the prevailing thought process surrounding storm number one. The energy will simply fail to coalesce soon enough for the region to be impacted by a major winter storm due to the follow up disturbance triggering a reconfiguration of the western CONUS ridge into a more positive (southwest to northeast) orientation. This subtle change promotes a slower down stream evolution, which results in the energy phasing over the Canadien Maritimes instead of just off of the east coast. While this does not preclude snowfall, per se, it doe relegate the region to a lighter snowfall that may accumulate an inch or two over the higher terrain of the interior. These type of wave spacing issues, as referenced last week, were a common occurrence that consistently plagued storm potential last season. Thereafter, the amplification of the incoming trough over the midwest will allow for a reconfiguration of the ridge back to a more positive orientation. This will afford the system more of an opportunity to amplify fast enough to have a greater impact on the region by Sunday night into Monday. However, there remains considerable uncertainty concerning whether or not it will amplify fast enough to provide significant snows for all of the region, or whether the primary impact will be more confined to eastern zones. Anticipate a First Call on Friday. Threat Assessment

Somehow this was still posted in the wrong thread

The GDPS shows 3 separate periods of snow - including weekend, daytime snow! It ends up as a fairly long duration light event with moderate snow accumulations region-wide. I like that outcome a lot. The GFS shows a high-end threat. That's a beautiful coastal storm evolution with NESIS potential. Things have been trending better for 2 days, but we might have reached the end of the trend. The UK backed off and the GEFS individuals are all east of and weaker than the GFS SLP except one weaker member near ELI. You could argue it both ways, but I prefer not seeing the OP GFS west of the ensemble spread. That's a red flag.

There is satellite imagery on it:

As you mentioned re the reading out in Reno, that is an extremely pumped ridge. Just need orientation and depth around the Mississippi and there could be something real.

Scroll up and see what SnowGoose said about that.

Yeah, numerous spots out West and in the Plains are over +10 so far. This was a pretty big miss from the model forecasts issued around Christmas. They were much too cold for the warmer pattern which verified. EPS forecasts from 12-25-25 Dec 29 to January 5th Jan 5 to 12

Clear west trend on the Canadian

What the GFS is showing right now.. especially how it compares to the Euro and how far our we are and the recent trends seems awfully familiar. I am trying really hard not to be negative.. but we need I swear I have seen this same thing play out like 30 times before. Its almost as if the GFS has a in tendency to over do trends in medium range and then correct back as we move toward game time. I hope I am wrong.. and we finally win one!

I love Chris J... I do, hes a great dude and a snow weenie. But man posting that on FB is dangerous.... the average person isn't reading all that theyre just seeing the pic and running with it.

rev is that you?

Just looking at the Euro since 12z yesterday it has trended closer to the coast by about 225 miles. We will need at least that much additional adjustment to score. I'm hoping for it all at once at 12z.

Clear west trend on the Canadian

Maintain the view of a more active southern stream with cold air nosing into the northern tier and potentially into the midcon. MLK weekend is the start of our best pattern potential for higher impact snow storms in quite some time. Pieces are on the board, it's a matter of putting them together.

With regards to Sunday, our shortwave is near the North Pole right now and will have a rather complicated evolution: Using the 6z Euro as a neutral example: Starting location: Complicated evolution:

We work as a team. You'll be seeing me as well lol. Katabatic is a great guy. We had a blast on our last chase. He's become a lifelong friend. I look forward to you joining us at Snow Camp! I like everyone here. I even really like JI. I'd let him join me on a chase. No complaining on the Tug Hill though lol

Love this. Just wanted to say I appreciate everyone for fueling my hobby and helping me learn new things all the time. Biggest thank you to the red-taggers who take time from their busy schedules to contribute here!

GFS is shades of the often forgotten January 2018 coastal blizzard. Close to 2 feet and hours of legit blizzard conditions in Point Pleasant Beach that day.

I'm genuinely surprised that I've been mentioned here. Thought I provided nothing but here we are. Today I'll be thanking @SnowenOutThere. Firstly, thank you for creating this thread. This forum definitely needs something like this, and maybe the other subforums can take a hint from this. Secondly, I would like to applaud you for your amazing posts. You're a top 5 poster IMO. The quality has improved rapidly, and whenever you post I learn a lot from you. And lastly, thank you for being so supportive of me by putting up with my BS. It's really helped me to find a place in this forum.

Back in the olden days, didn’t the UK sort of hint at where the EURO was going to end up on its next run? I feel like I remember folks making those connections back in 2014-2018 when we were tracking storms left and right