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Definitely a warm trend between say Jan 4-8. The pattern change to an eastern trough still looks good by Jan8-10th. Modeling could easily be missing a cold front in that range. Still, things look reasonably on track. Dec29-Jan10 looks like a transition time frame where the ridge retrogrades into the West. Jan 10 looks like a new pattern w/ an EPO ridge in the West. It has taken a while for the dust to settle, but that is where I "think" we are heading.

I don't think the run before was right but that's just a guess

I cant recall seeing that much ice modeled before even if it is out in fantasy land!

I remember waking up and seeing the back edge clearing south nj and thinking it was about over. Thankfully it slowed and pivoted and we got 6 more hours of heavy snow.

what happened in just 3 runs? to

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 104 PM EST Tue Dec 30 2025 OHZ039>041-049-050-059-069-PAZ013-014-020>022-029-031-073-075-077- WVZ001>004-012-021-509-310200- /O.NEW.KPBZ.WW.Y.0028.251231T1800Z-260101T1500Z/ Tuscarawas-Carroll-Columbiana-Harrison-Jefferson OH-Belmont- Monroe-Lawrence-Butler-Beaver-Allegheny-Armstrong-Washington-Greene- Westmoreland-Fayette-Indiana-Hancock-Brooke-Ohio-Marshall-Wetzel- Marion-Monongalia- Including the cities of Kittanning, Washington, Uniontown, Morgantown, New Philadelphia, New Castle, Malvern, Woodsfield, Weirton, Monaca, Canonsburg, Indiana, Salem, Monessen, Moundsville, Lower Burrell, Ellwood City, Waynesburg, Latrobe, New Martinsville, Beaver Falls, Aliquippa, Ford City, Murrysville, Wellsburg, Ambridge, Pittsburgh Metro Area, New Kensington, Butler, Follansbee, Martins Ferry, St. Clairsville, Cadiz, East Liverpool, Steubenville, Fairmont, Greensburg, Columbiana, Carrollton, Wheeling, and Dover 104 PM EST Tue Dec 30 2025 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations between 3 and 5 inches. Snow squall conditions will be possible during the evening and overnight. * WHERE...Portions of east central Ohio, southwest and western Pennsylvania, and northern and the northern panhandle of West Virginia. * WHEN...From 1 PM Wednesday to 10 AM EST Thursday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions will impact the Wednesday evening and Thursday morning commutes. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Slow down and use caution while traveling. The latest road conditions can be obtained by calling 5 1 1. Please report snow or ice accumulations by calling 412-262-1988, posting to the NWS Pittsburgh Facebook page, or using X @NWSPittsburgh. && $$ 88

I had not noticed that, but whoa! See, I think middle and west Tenn have to really guard against this. This has been a really common feature in past winters. These cold fronts head to Texas(there you go @Daniel Boone) and the front gets hung-up over our forum area.

Lol...guess we are delayed.

Philly looked like it was getting skunked too with the snow shield northeast of there, but then it backed up just enough to put them in a heavy band near the edge and they got 8".

Seriously, this wind can go e.a.d. So sick of it. 32 and clear out.

The cold will definitely take a break at some point, but it took a break in every good winter we’ve had. We don’t live in the Yukon.

End up 16 consecutive hours 35+

No doubt. After last nights run, we got and monster ice storm for the south which takes it to a Cleveland Steamer.

Snowcover is about 50-50 here, but not all of the covered area is even an inch, so I'm going with a trace. But it still looks nice in places.

LFG ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations between 5 and 9 inches. Winds gusting as high as 50 mph. * WHERE...In Maryland, Eastern Garrett and Western Garrett Counties. In West Virginia, Western Grant, Western Mineral, and Western Pendleton Counties. * WHEN...From 4 PM Wednesday to 10 AM EST Thursday. * IMPACTS...Visibilities may drop below 1/4 mile due to falling and blowing snow. Near-blizzard conditions are expected at times, and will make travel treacherous and potentially life-threatening. Travel will be very difficult. The hazardous conditions could impact the Wednesday evening and Thursday morning commutes. The combination of gusty winds and heavy snowfall could bring down trees and powerlines, potentially resulting in numerous power outages. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The onset of near-blizzard conditions could be just before midnight on New Year`s Eve and continue into the early morning hours of New Year`s Day. Make preparations now to avoid travel during this time.

I was 50/50 on going to the MCB. I ended up staying in Kingsport. I have a kiddo who plays in the band for the good guys which is why I wanted it to be warm. They are gonna freeze their tails off! I about froze at the Vandy game. Thankfully, they are young and good at what they do!!! I get to make the midnight run to Knoxville tonight for pickup! I do love it, though. I should be here for the 0z runs. Haha. I slept-in a bit this morning - by my standards. Then I went running, and pretty much froze. Stopped at four miles and had enough of the wind chill. As for modeling. I think they jumped the gun just a hair and are correcting. It is more than common for models to be about a week ahead of the actual pattern change. Overall, the BIG event is Jan 8-9 when the EPO ridge goes up. I still see that, and it looks like it is moving forward with time. Also, models lose things in the 5-7 day range...so there is that. I still very much like where we are headed. VERY MUCH. Honestly, I like reading what you all post. So, sometimes I just back down my volume a bit which can be a bit much. Our daily 12z GFS "this ain't gonna happen" post -> but if it did -> The Day After Tomorrow.

CMC also goes into 6, while Euro stays in weak 7 (let's see what 12z says).

Duster on deck for this evening/tonight.

Yea, that ice storm for Arkansas was crazy, some places over 5" of ice

Clipper Thursday and clipper Sunday.

You said the same thing about this month. Take a break.

About an inch so far with a little more yet to go. It'll be nice to measure without drifting

The 12z GFS spawned some type of monstrosity on January 11th.

Prettty disappointing turn of events although rug pulls are what we specialize in around here