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miss north

I have black circles around my eyes already, it's hard to explain to others why we do what we do, it's an addiction for sure.

15 / 1 off a low of 10 here. Overall cold to much below normal the next 11 days or through the 31st / 1st. Coldest days look to be 1/24-1/25 - perhaps temps at or sub 20 all day then single digit low (coldest since 2019 perhaps) , then again 1/28 - 1/30. The much talked WAA / overrunning and potential secondary developent later Sat (1/24) - Sun (1/25) and into Mon (1/26) and perhaps Tue (1/27 long duration event. Hints at additional energy clipper or southern in the 1/31 period. Beyond there moderation back towards / above normal.

It's important to know what ENSO does as a first point. There is a North Pacific High correlation (+NOI in La Nina)... when you get a strong +PNA pattern in January... that's not La Nina impacting. I do wonder why Larry got that like 10/10 of negative ENSO -PNA Dec's went +PNA in Jan since 1980. It's right, but that's not what La Nina does.

Careful, we don’t want too much too fast. I am 90% sure the storm will come up north anyway. I’m thinking the mix line will reach as far north as EZF/SoMD despite the models saying it’ll stay south of the NC/VA border.

Down to -11 at the house this morning. This will be quite the cold stretch

low of 17.2F here, looks like DCA got down to 20F.

Agree-you want it wrapped up into one system. Back edge snows rarely if ever work out as well

I think the trends on the Euro the last 2 runs will probably continue and you will be happy. The big NAO settling in this weekend should slow things down and promote phasing. The look at 144 on 6z euro with a deepening low off Hatteras moving basically north with fresh arctic air in place is the kinda thing that we don't see often and can really offer us a lot of QPF with fantastic ratios.

That 6z Euro looked like it was going to develop some decent coastal as well. Might've been 15-20" if it had played out to its end.

Mixed ideas on that.. That has the look of a classic/climo southern ice/mix storm. As a matter of climate course those more often stay safely S of the ~ Mason Dixie latitude. It depends how much is conserved of the jet mechanics as that quasi S/stream wave squeezes E under the continental N/stream. If there's more there, than there's more feedback that subtly but crucially elevates heights over the west Atlantic via feed backs, while it also generates more coherent low pressure/mechanics. That appears to be the pathway to getting clipped this far N. Less, and this stays a southern classic. Either way ...they're likely getting their winter storm.

Pretty much all guidance has been trending north. The question is whether that trend stops or reverses or we see it keep going.

Fwiw TWC stated that Boston COULD get a heavy snow out of this.

Yeah, I am pleasantly surprised with them. It's very cliche on these boards or some people's schtick to say that forecasts are no good more than 5 days out, or stress how bad the 2 week forecasts are, etc.. in reality, the field has improved. CPC does a pretty good job in their 3-4 week and monthly forecasts from what I have seen. Also their long range stuff pretty much paints a picture 1 year out and in the updates every month there are pretty much minor changes. I will continue to keep track of, if their forecasts are better than the Futures and Commodities market.. in my experience so far they are. Gawx also predicted it, saying that the NG price won't react until well into the forecast period, a week or so before the cold hit - that's what happened. It dropped, a lot actually, early Jan, then is up now 23% in the last 2 days. Good job CPC and Larry (+PNA January hit, too)!

Snow and temps.in mid teens would be crazy sick

Low here in Media 9.7f with our 5" of snow on the ground. I think we are looking at 2f to about 5f tonight see how things work out. I mean 2f and a high to 46f on Thursday, you know something is coming soon in regards to a big storm with these temperature gradients that are going to start showing up as we increase our warming in the southern latitudes and bring the warm and moisture north it is all about timing, but the ingredients are there for 1 or 2 blockbuster snowstorms between January 23rd and February 10th or so. Great information as usual Paul.

Hmmm…

Download and then upload to https://imgur.com/ Then direct link them here.

Problem is that some like Tony feel that as though they have a license to spew nonsense because the pattern is evolving in a cold and snowy manner.

I’d like for models to work their way a little north today but I’m just feeling greedy. I’ll take the 1 inch qpf in DC at 10:1+ ratios

At first glance I read that as " Big Stout" lol. Which reminds me I need to get some before the weekend. OK back on topic!

two things to never depend on in New York City: A two part system Trailing edge snow If you’re looking for that, you’re in a bad spot.

Hard to believe it’s been 10 years already. https://iso.500px.com/the-story-behind-the-most-viral-photo-from-blizzard2016/

Looks like DC is about to get a big one to help with these stats.