All Activity

Moisture has been a problem for years with this -PDO and/or Niña. Heck, the 1"+ rain that was supposed to fall today ended up at only .38" at York Airport.

Yea how Many storms that formed so close to us destroyed us. We need more dig and more time

Well ukmet is usual dry model anyway

Yes by quite a bit. I guess that's all we can ask for right now.

Just to emphasize the big shift from 12z. Also see the deemphasis of the other lows.

GEFS finally support the op and the UK is hugely improved. Yes precipitation is lacking across all guidance relative to the mid-levels. Is that a function of meager lift and lack of overrunning or will it beef up as we get closer?... If I had to guess right now based on the GFS/ICON/UK general evolution, I would expect locally heavier QPF but a lack of a widespread precipitation shield. In other words, I think the lack of classic overrunning out ahead of a surface low decreases the overall magnitude of QPF that we would normally expect with a strong system... but locally, deformation is probably being undermodeled at this stage by the global models.

Taking zero credit for this analysis but what I’m hearing is that our low is developing too late and rapidly occluding - meaning we aren’t pulling in enough moisture in time. Solution could be a little more dig.

lol. Historical East coast suck

I'm still very interested in tomorrow, but the simulated reflectivities all suggest very scattered activity. Should be fun for those who get under one of those heavy showers, and we'll need that intense omega-driven cooling to combat fairly warm low levels. The simulated reflectivities show rain except for right under the most intense cores.

As Jb says…we don’t live at 500mb. All the models look amazing at upper levels and none have a snowstorm

You know I am good at that. Just not in weather anymore apparently.

In H5 I trust. Models are still all over the place. Hopefully we'll see them lock in on an HECS in a couple of days.

Just catching up, good analysis all, great blog post Ray To add to all the flies in the ointment, I think the ULL over St. Lawrence River is hindering trough from tilting more negative, scoots this east just as it looks ready to explode. Diminish that and we’d have a huge hit on this 0z GFS.

I guess we’re getting hammered.

Came back to find this, hahaha

The UKIE is in the Canadian camp. Not much cooking there except some NW flow snow showers and cold. It's not the best place to be on team ICON/GFS vs the other models.

Hopefully either we or Deep Creek cashes in next weekend because I have fam on standby to run out there if things don't look good for us in the low country...

You sure about that? Bwahaha!

I guess. But with a cutoff low like that, just hard to accept. Oh well. Surface is resolved last.

Looks OK to me.

We need the gom to wake up.

These models show incredible h5 looks but end up with nothing. What's new around the Mid-Atlantic?

Only thing I can see is too much interference

Still, marked improvement at h5 for UKIE, we take for now. It agrees with the GFS on that front... just struggling to get anything to happen at the surface.