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Thanks. Not to be greedy but when we are minus 5.9F I think we should have scored more snow than we actually did. Either way, this December was a solid "A" grade.

Set goals not resolutions!! That is all I have to share. Next few weeks look bad. Resolutions will probably end for most people before the pattern changes again. Even more before mid February.

10 and a half inches of snow here so far this winter. That's solidly above normal snowfall to this point.

Check out Fulton, NY’s, forecast: New Year's Day A chance of snow showers before 2pm, then snow, mainly after 2pm. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 19. Northwest wind 8 to 11 mph, with gusts as high as 22 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Total daytime snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible. Tonight Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 13. West wind around 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 14 to 20 inches possible. Friday Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 24. West wind 7 to 9 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 13 to 19 inches possible. Friday Night Snow. Low around 16. West wind around 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible.

Strange to see you side with ACATT and going with 20s for highs

Yes, absolute same page.

Yeah if we start getting days in the 60s/low 70s in Jan we are probably in a shit the blinds pattern.

Congratulations! Great job forecasting.

Nice write up. I think the -EPO/+TNH just after mid-month into late January is real. I also think the cold is real. The risk again would be the +NAO/+AO/SE ridge tendency that comes along with a +TNH regime. I can see a gradient type pattern with overrunning events and SWFEs. The question, as always, will be where does the gradient set up? New England would obviously be the safest on the cold side in such a gradient pattern. Probably can get a better idea of how it’s going to play out the next couple of weeks

Not really....it's the favored outcome.

I think Pope has nailed it here TBH....same page with respect to first half of January...not great for coastal snowfall.

20% chance of snow in the forecast here. Did pretty well with that the last 2 days lol.

There’s a fine line between mid 50s and low 70s this time of year.

Oh I know! I'm a Cooperative Observer for NWS (RSTM2). This past December was the first time in years (5+?) that we didn't hit 60°. EDIT: First time since 2017 for my site.

I should be a bit after mid month...I think 1/12 to 1/13 is a bit early.

Dude, it's the first day of the month.

Having some days in the 50s is normal around here in winter. Did ya know the high temp the day before the Jan 3-4 2022 snowstorm was around 60? It was snowing 12 hours later.

Not sure Saturday is completely dead for a small event even if its on life support

Agreed, that’s what I’m going with as well. Unfortunately I slept through the squall, but it was great to wake up to this first day of the year! Happy New Year everyone!

1" here overnight. Stuck in the mid-20's and windy.

3.5" total/depth, sun starting to come out

Just reflecting on the improvement in the PNA region however once the negative EPO arrives I agree we do not want an overly positive PNA. As @CAPE has mentioned we have done well with small to medium events during previous winters which featured a negative EPO pattern. There's no reason to think we cannot take advantage of this time period later in the month for snowfall opportunities. What is also encouraging to know is that the polar vortex is not likely to strengthen significantly and even though the Arctic oscillation is forecast to rise from standard deviations of -3 it will likely head back down again according to the models

Yeah with an amped EPO ridge we have a mechanism to deliver the cold. Having a neutral/slightly -PNA can facilitate shortwaves ejecting eastward further south. Otherwise we need a healthy NS wave to drop south and track underneath. We will need the NAO to be favorable to keep the SE ridge flat/suppressed and most of the guidance is depicting a ridge over GL in the LR.

It was nice to get that alert. I jumped up and watched us get absolutely demolished. Then right back to sleep.