All Activity

True but also we extrapolate the NAM even for 2 inch snowstorms. Its more so a "fun" exercise akin to repeatedly administering electronic shocks to yourself.

Absolutely not. I’m in K’dale and extremely cool. Just never get snow

I do a forecast for my school, I was wondering what y'all think is a reasonable range to forecast for tonight? I'll wait for the 18z suite but I'm thinking probably 4-8 for now? I want to suggest significant accumulation but keep a lid on it for now.

Y'all what some good feels, check this out

I had to laugh at them putting Pinecrest on the Campbell County map. It's about 30 houses on a peninsula leading to the lake on the south end of the County.

I’ve had both my kids and a neighbor text me about the storm today. And it was just mentioned in a work meeting (although they didn’t ask for my opinion). Normies gonna get crazy in another day or two if things stay on track.

Reasonable fear of a rug pull. So many of us have been heart broken for too long lol.

If we got 2”+ QPF with temps less than 28 throughout and less than 6” frozen this would be an epic epic fail

1” of ZR at ATL (or anywhere) would be bad enough. That hasn’t happened at ATL since 2/12/2014 and that much was only from Hartsfield S and mainly E. (That’s the one that killed the Eisenhower tree at Augusta National). Other than the terrible 1/1973 icestorm, which had temps only barely below 32, the last I could find giving ATL 2”+ was the devastating ~2” icestorm of 12/28-29/1935. Temps did drop into the 20s for part of that and probably as cold as mid 20s for the coldest, similar to the 12Z Euro. I read ATL news articles on this 30 years ago at the downtown library. It was horrible. So, essentially the 12Z Euro is calling for the worst combo of heaviest/very cold ZR at ATL in 90 years! Thus, of course it would be correct to bet on it not being as bad as modeled based on history. But unfortunately there’s a small chance it could actually happen like 90 years ago. Let’s hope not! Link to ATL day by day historical data: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=ffc @suzook@dsaur

12z diagnostic mslp, prate, type, etc... and 12z ensemble spread at forecast hour 132:

Snippet from Mount Holly latest AFD- they are the better local forecast office, until they mention the 12k NAM. In fact, snow probabilities of the NBM have actually gone up quite a bit, now showing a 70-90% chance of 2+ inches of snow and a 60-80% chance of 6+ inches of snow for areas south of Philadelphia, with probabilities gradually falling off further north. Likewise, the probabilistic Winter Storm Severity Index (WSSI-P) has increased further with now almost our entire area expected to observe at least Moderate Level winter storm impacts. As noted with the previous shift, these probabilities are higher than the prior forecast cycle.

Man you are in a zero craps to give mode these days aren't you? Lol

Bib Ryan’s famous “of biblical proportions” for 1996

Could be thunder snow. 13.8” wow. JAX does this graph factor in ratio or standard 10:1?

I need to jump in on this. I miss updating the totals. I'm at 21.5" on the season. I may have missed a 1-2"er we've had a lot of them here.

Actually weak La Niña winters are great for big winter snows

Horst is great as well.

C'mon you have to be more creative than that. That saying has been around since the 90's. Now this is brand spanking new! https://bubble-wrap.party/

NAM at 48-56 hours HRRR at 36 to tighten it up. Thursday evening will tell us all what is going to happen, The watches should be out by then

I'm having a hard time concentrating on enjoying my journey. I spent all of 4 hours offline doing some hiking but I can't stay away. For those who care, Horst (remember him) tweeted 2 hours ago - classic setup for a major winter storm. A crippling snow is possible...and so is a few inches. I'm sure he'll post again in the coming days.

That's it. People are anxious.. need something to look at NOW and either validate their hopes or stress the fuck over.

It is anxiety talking for sure because this is make or break for the winter after years of paltry events.

18Z NAM trying to throw us a teaser before the big event. Sign me up!

This was the surface depiction for the January 2022 sleet bomb. This stayed all sleet and snow in the triad (I think a little light ZR to end, but nothing significant). Just goes to show what a strong surface high will do for you. It seems very unlikely that Raleigh and points N & W will have a changeover to ZR for any significant amount of time. The question is will it be a 4-6" sleet bomb or a historic snowstorm