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i didn't realize the title said 18-19 initially this was 15-16 focused but whatever, the whole thing is a dumpster fire.

hey what happen to Doorman?

ICON has snow I-95 N&W on Sun. The RDPS looks decent at 84hrs. Decent start to 0z.

This looks really GOOD Thoughts?

TT Icon does that all the time and I have no idea why, lol

Just looking at MJO Charts one would expect a mild Pattern in the East. Goes to show other Drivers sometimes dictate or throw the MJO effects off kilter. Even the location of La nina apparently according to some research.

Saw this and it perked my interest.

Surprised you didn't comment on the 0z ICON, You usually don't miss a model run...............

Love how it skips the exact panels we want to see. (At least on TT)

Around 12/27 or so this board and other boards and a host of heavyweight professional meteorologists were posting (somewhat giddily by some) about how amazing the pattern looked for cold and probably snow for the next 2+ weeks. Most of the good ones said this simply increased the probability of snow, but was no guarantee of it, as predicting that far in advance always comes with significant uncertainty and such patterns don't always verify. And unfortunately most of us got some pretty cold weather for a week or so and then saw a warm-up that hasn't quite ended yet and very little snow. I'm not posting this to be critical, but I am curious what some of our pros/trusted folks would say about the level of confidence they might have for what looks to be a cold and potentially snowy pattern ahead for the last week in January and maybe beyond vs. the level of confidence they might have had back in late December.

I’m going to need a front end loader for the drive if this is correct

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Hmmmm

I would agree. With a -PNA the GFS is the best scenario for our area. There are literally two 1045 arctic highs keeping that storm down. I'd like to see a neutral PNA such that our margin for error is more.

Looks like most of it comes from a wound up storm system that tracks from AR to the NC/SC border from FH246-270. Verbatim would support some severe weather in LA/MS on the 23rd, too.

The map you just posted isn’t actually a “traditionally” neg PNA, but a transient gradient pattern where the index “computes” negative for a few days. More like a bootleg -PNA. However, I would feel better if we didn’t have troughing in the pac NW. We’d want ridging there to maintain the cold supply as the storm approaches here (even as a cut off low or energy undercutting the +pna ridge). I do like the atlantic side, we have a PV pressing down south towards us with confluence. The biggest failure risk is that the western trough gets stronger, the TPV retreats north or NW, and the eastern ridge pumps, and the storm cuts. So far we haven’t been trending in that direction, though. The other end of the spectrum is where the PNA is so positive (with -EPO) that it suppresses the storm south. Right now that is the most unlikely scenario for that window. In short, with -EPO and a strong TPV in SE canada, we’d root for a neutral PNA if not slightly positive. In this case, too much -PNA, cutter. Too much +PNA, suppression. But generally, we get our best snows snowstorms when the PNA is positive. btw this is why we like El Ninos. STJ undercuts the +PNA, which delivers the cold while we get gulf moisture from a STJ wave. Way simpler than trying to thread the needle during a Nina.

RGEM is cooking up something sweet

ICON trying to be frisky for the 18th. Sorry don’t know whose storm that one is. Lol

Actually, that was all from one storm from hour 252 to 300. Insane storm.

Not bad

I’m surprised at how long this thaw is. Really defined the first half of the month aside from the first 6 days that were average or well below average. Tomorrow is the 14th and we’ll still be 10 degrees above average. At this point it’s not a thaw, it’s a running theme that CONUS has been quite warm this month

That’d be a fun drive out to a long weekend at Wisp with the wife and kids in the family truckster. I’m in.

Yes only 34.6 for me. I'm hoping the 0Z run shifts the 40-50 inch line a little east.