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at this point I've completely lost track of whether there is anything to care about. I'm just assuming it's going to be cloudy with some light snow maybe.

The resolution is what always puts me off with the AIs. There’s no fine details like the deterministic ops. Everything is more coarse and “fuzzy”. I feel like that would provide more consistency in the mid or long range, but would result in being over generous in the short range. That’s why I always treat them like ens means.

Overcast day with thicker cloud deck moving in from the west not seeing my mostly sunny forecast happening

Cuts down on precip across interior New England, increases in southern and southeastern.

Both AI models (euro and gfs) are wester than everything right now. A good test to see how those perform.

Go big or go home. Tap the gulf and take our chances with suppression.

12z GFS was lit with threats this run, same with CMC

I just am morbidly curious how long they will keep doubling down.

Weenie ?

I hope you get crushed

Yes the wonderful UKMET and its mysterious 'great scores' Rarely see it mentioned in a NWS forecast discussion. I gotta keep promoting my storm just in case...otherwise if it does produce, unlikely as that may be, the peeps will say I gave up on it.

If AI delivers, I’ll give my degree to Nvidia and buy Jerry food and drinks at the next gtg.

Yeah it ticked west lol. This is nuts.

Lol it actually got better versus 06z. What a mega disaster this is gonna be for the skynets. Or it will be one of the great coups.

Superchuck

4-6” in all of sne. All hail AI

just glanced as mesos and hi teens at midnight into low/mid 20s early am. I'd think that'd be enough to let whatever falls get to the surface. couple looks at skew t's for lanco not bad imo.

uncle!?

Several of my southeast Georgia friends are still excited, as am I. Here in Macon we're rarely on the northern fringe of the snowline (Feb '73, anyone) but a few ticks north with the precip shield and just a slightly stronger push south with the colder temps and my early Sunday morning dog-walk could provide us with a memorable jaunt around the neighborhood.

AIfS quite robust. I have qpf and it looks like >0.5 to the CT River

I have been in agreement with @Carvers Gap for the last 10 days or so. This is a progression that should work out for the southeast/deep south. The changing puzzle pieces are evident in the snow projected to our south and east over the next few days, and also potentially scattered through out parts of TN tonight into tomorrow morning. Looking at the longer range evolution at 500 on the GFS and Canadian........... it's a really good one that should throw a winter chance or two from here to the Ohio Valley. I just hope it's the former and not the latter when the pieces come into view and get under the 3-4 day range.

..many up in SE PA that also works lol

They need to get smoked. Winter to date, they are 40% under normal snowfall.

Ukmet is actually a good model scores usually just under the euro. And ya if and most likely the gem is wrong it’s a bad bust for this close.

we hope and pray Not yet on Lake George but going to be next few days