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URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 1141 AM EST Fri Dec 12 2025 OHZ039>041-048>050-057-058-PAZ013-014-020>022-077-078-WVZ001-002- 130215- /O.NEW.KPBZ.WW.Y.0024.251213T1800Z-251214T1800Z/ Tuscarawas-Carroll-Columbiana-Coshocton-Harrison-Jefferson OH- Muskingum-Guernsey-Lawrence-Butler-Beaver-Allegheny-Armstrong- Indiana-Higher Elevations of Indiana-Hancock-Brooke- Including the cities of East Liverpool, Steubenville, Aliquippa, Salem, Cambridge, New Philadelphia, Pittsburgh Metro Area, Follansbee, Ambridge, Indiana, Ford City, Ellwood City, Zanesville, Beaver Falls, Cadiz, Carrollton, Armagh, Columbiana, Butler, Dover, Malvern, Weirton, Monaca, Wellsburg, New Castle, Kittanning, and Coshocton 1141 AM EST Fri Dec 12 2025 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations between 3 and 5 inches. * WHERE...Portions of east central Ohio, southwest and western Pennsylvania, and northern and the northern panhandle of West Virginia. * WHEN...From 1 PM Saturday to 1 PM EST Sunday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow bands may prompt some counties to be upgraded to a Winter Storm Warning. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Please report snow or ice accumulations by calling 412-262-1988, posting to the NWS Pittsburgh Facebook page, or using X @NWSPittsburgh. && $$

The NYC metro area is going to warm up. We are not New England

Went back and looked at the reanalysis maps of the Dec Christmas Eve tornado in 1988 in TN to see if that was possible with what the models seemed to hinting at a couple days ago,guess four words should be noted"GOOD LUCK WITH THAT" This pattern we are in is just like we seen last year when we was off to a fast start but collapsed when the blocking into the Western Aleutians/Being Sea set in after the tornado outbreak in March this year All this does is pull the JS further northward makes the severe shift up into the OV,in which is what we seen CIPS yesterday morning had some good analogs for tornadoes around Christmas from the LMV into the Mid South,but the models yesterday afternoon crapped that out building the subtropical ridge further northward Still over 10 days out,this could always change again.We more than often get severe before cold in the cold season.I.E the severe outbreak last winter where Vortex is at in MS. in late Dec

Yeah, the Euro got taken to the woodshed on that one. Kept trying to show southeast CT/RI/MA blizzards.

The Euro Weeklies suggest the most intense and persistent torching will actually be concentrated well to the W and SW of the E coast. So, whereas a big warmup vs the current very cold pattern is coming on all models, that big warmup in the E US appears to take it to only moderately warmer than normal instead of downright torchy when averaged out.

I am going to try a new way of posting. For the 12z suite, I am going to put all note here instead of 5,000 posts in a stream of thought fashion. I will simply edit and amend this post as the 12z suite progresses. Feel free to comment! 12z CMC...is having nothing to do with a prolonged warm-up prior to 240. It has the Dec 20th cold front. 12z GFS...Doesn't have the 20th cold front, but has one on the 23rd. The 12z GFS...gasp...erases the furnace by 276.

those usually setup where Monticello and north get massive snows while we rain and drizzle! No thanks please just give us warmth if it's not going to snow!

Well sure, a couple things about that though. I've seen those charts change very rapidly in the past for one. As they start picking up on any specific tropospheric pattern that are the drivers of said events. Which models aren't great with at extended leads as we all know. Or even 5 days for that matter . Also that chart is from yesterday's weekly run. I didn't see anything resembling what I posted about on any of the runs yesterday. This was something new today in the 00z eps members. Lastly, I didn't call for anything to happen. That was just perfect opportunity to bring it up as it's a good illustration. Plus seeing that within the 00z eps members is a little interesting.

1989-90 but warmer.

https://x.com/weatherwilly/status/1999483716192915683?s=61

Phase jobs mostly don’t work for DC but can for Balt and northeast. What happened to this being a fairly narrow strip of precip to now to a B style coastal transfer ?

Agree Northern areas should continue to do well .

I have a house in Rehoboth and an apartment in Elliott city. This is gonna happen.. 100% just like this. because the snow gods hate me and my family

@WxUSAF did you try to program the 12z UKIE snow max over you?

You can get huge cutters in a gradient pattern. It will be very hard to avoid one. It’s possible but unlikely. The gradient also sets up decently north…so it’s gonna get milder and milder relative to normal once you’re getting south of NNE.

And then that one random time it turned out to be right, haha (can't remember exactly when that was)

Some flakes in Wilson.

Buncho, you’re late brother

From the Banana Belt of central NC congrats!

Im not sure if we gonna see a big warmup. So much cold air up north. Looks like a gradient pattern to me

Im not sure if we gonna see a big warmup. So much cold air up north. Looks like a gradient pattern to me

bengals tickets for a game w/ low teens air temp and sd's wind chill are going for about $20 on the upper bowl, lower for 40-50. Will probably be there, thats almost too good to pass up.

Im not sure if we gonna see a big warmup. So much cold air up north. Looks like a gradient pattern to me .