All Activity

Euro ticked NW but still a miss. It now has some snow for Saturday.

Definitely something to this. NS dominant patterns are chaotic- turbulent, with vortices flying around all over the place- very difficult for model guidance to get all the wave interactions and timing correct, which ofc have a big impact on sensible weather. Southern stream dominant patterns tend to be prominent in El Nino years and generally have a "quieter" NS, esp with a NA blocking regime. Just a matter of waiting for a significant SS wave to track eastward and snow on us(hopefully).

Mike Maze at WRAL only showed the European and said he wasn’t expecting anything with temperatures above freezing. I notice a trend at WRAL. Downcast everything until it is actually within 24 hours.

It Might be on to something. It’s not the only model showing some very wintry set ups after the 24th or so.

Yes we are here for the big chase. The next 1/23/2016 or 2/12/2006 or myriad of other huge storms. The past 20 years have produced monsters on East Coast. Just because we are in a 5 year drought does not mean cannot pull off miracle.

Man, too bad we can't lock in the entire run of 18z skynet Euro....winter of yore.

Euro AI is like 75-100 miles from being a really good event South of Boston, as is, kind of just another middling low end advisory

We have some AA to AAA duster prospects, definitely been worse but I'm also itching for a big league event

Low center was def a little east but precip thrown further west

January rain might be my least favorite weather phenomena.

The low center ticked E but it was stronger with a larger QPF field, so the QPF looked slightly west. It's kind of what @Typhoon Tip was saying earlier about how the center can move slightly E but the impact of sensible wx can move slightly W if the storm is stronger/larger. Either way, we're talking error bars here....nothing big.

Worst part of les, nothing worse than sucking dust while someone gets smoked a few miles away

I think that was pure rage, not anything planned lol

Let's hope no data collection is done through the Verizon path. I doubt it, but certainly if models go haywire....we know.

Just talking truth bro…hope you weren’t offended.

This picture says it all for those of us in the perpetual snowless zone. Luckily it is just one run of GOOFUS but since it has been showing the same thing for several winters it is getting depressing.

Happy for Toronto gang, looks like a legit major

I thought it looked slightly east, but not much difference

Here's the maps of that day. 29.38 over MSP in the aftrn, then 29.27 over DLH that night. Still 29.27 in DLH the next morning, but HP sinking S with 30.14 over near Fargo/Moorehead area. That's a tight gradient! The low slowly weakened over L Superior, and spread out, keeping a decent gradient over MN into the 9th n 10th.

Let’s face it we are all weenies why the hell else are we here? I love being here and seeing pbp of models and talking thd possibilities; that alone makes us all weenies enjoy the tracking!! Revel in the snow / weather!

Ai Euro ticked west

Well they continue to try and do things they can’t do. In Nina’s they can’t provide accurate scientific data and is mostly 300 samples of examples. I think as they have tried to increase their resolution , that’s gotten worse. Northern and southern stream cooperation along with transfers from west of applchns to off the coast just too many gears and parts to predict. Rainstorm already effecting Atlanta and moving northeast ward is mostly already in place and easy. A’s work for us And models and they seem to be gone lately Where I draw heat is pointing this out . Frankly I can’t understand the defensiveness. I guess unlike many I come here for information on what will most likely happen with some attention paid to consistency. . Every single example of what has a 5% chance of occurring and covering every outcome imaginable just is not exciting for me and in fact discouraging .

give me number 2 or 7!!!

What? Someone thinking he's clever throwing F-Bombs is entertaining?

I’m not on the ledge Chuck