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This could end up being the bigger story when it's all over

It's simple from here on out - if it isn't in the high-resolution models inside 36 hours, take it with a grain of salt. I have never in my life seen so many thread the needle examples - and no matter the ingredients, it fails. Is what it is - hoping the 2m temps mean sleet for a while, makes sledding fun!

Just something to keep in mind. I honestly completely forgot about this. https://x.com/weathertrackus/status/2014021511263252774

No second snowstorm on the euro a little glum about that

as event approaches, its running into a 1042mb H, and while it does get nudged NE, antecedent cold coupled w/ that should hold ground for most of the duration. If it ends as sleet...fine, thats just a snowpack densifier.

For this winter storm, they called the North shift perfectly. 48 hours ago, while we were sweating suppression they were thinking DC and Balt would mix.

Middle Tennessee, north of I-40 (to the north and west of Nashville) looks to be a disaster zone on the 12z Euro. 6" of snow and .5-1.00 inch of ice.

Was the lunch in Georgetown?

lets see what the nam says about mixing issues only model i trust when it comes to that..

You’ve been around through a lot of disappointment. A lot. That’s what this area produces most of the time. You’ll be back. And I’m grateful for that.

Who has got eps?

I prefer Randy’s play by play to Uccellini’s

How credible and accurate are the guys at BAM weather?

That was a great positive bust over performer for N/NE MA. I was just looking at the forecast essex and they were going 6-10 in Essex i remember we had a map for most of SNE for 5-10 and Nrn Ma ended up with 12-19. Kinda funny that storm doesnt get referred to often as one of those big ones, but it was a big dog for some.

February 2014 was like this. Still gave ABE 16”.

I was in Herndon VA for that, got about 18" of snow followed by several inches of sleet.

The Euro brings in mixing issues early Sunday afternoon now. We might not know until we get into NAM range since that model is so good at sniffing out mixing problems.

I had 16+, recently checked out the maps for 1/29/22 and I was definitely just shy of the local max which you caught more of. I had 18 in 1/4/18 too, local max in Ocean was like 22 for that one. I like where we're at, the sleet threat is real but we've been the QPF max in NJ for a bit now. It's going to be a dice roll but we'll either jackpot or still do very well and sleet at the end, rain is possible but for now I'll wait to see how the north shift evolves. I still think CNJ (as in middle third of the state, not cultural CNJ) is going to do extremely well. Hopefully the entire metro gets a major storm.

It is, you can see the mix line in Delaware. Different purples.

When the rain falls on the pavement, even if the air temperature rises above freezing, those paved surfaces don't heat up at the rate the air does. It will be a f'n mess, that model hasn't factored any of that into its assessment.

Thanks! So it's not an acronym for anything?

Ya that do. But not usually 300 miles lol

THIS!