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That brings up a fascinating ask; what winter is the closest to having most of its cold/snow in Nov and the first 3 weeks of Dec? There would still be wintery wx after the solstice due to the small database of winters we have.

4.5 inches glen rock nj

sandwiched b/w 2 cutters

Op Models swing wildly at 10 days. Think how many mega storms have been at 10 to 15 days this year yet we have had none. Absolutely useless for sensible weather.

Thats not a snow in VA sleet to rain.and GFS op? Gets so convoluted and unscientific at times in here

We all know you’re not posting as much because you’re prepping to win Mr Universe.

8.0" Huntington Station and season total. Thanks for compiling and making the map!

We need a reshuffle I won't argue that. Maybe we can finally get that Greenland block in early January. I'm still concerned that the Pacific may not play nice for the majority of the winter, similar to the past 5 or 6 winters.

Nevermind the future...the present is scary on many levels...

Models have really struggled this late fall/ early Winter. Carvers gap in the Tn Valley Sub brought up something that could be right. Feedback in The Pac NW. Watch the Cycle's and check out the Runs that keep the East colder. Look at the difference in the PAC NW. Also, Webb has some rather interesting Ideas as well. We , no doubt need to shake any semblance of a GOA Low as we all know but, it is possible to work around it until we do. Chill covered those. The MJO back in Ph 8 hopefully helps as well.

Since Thanksgiving I discussed 12/5 and then 12/21 showing up analog wise. Also stated no true and lengthy warm up until 12/27 at earliest. For sure we won’t stay in 20’s and 30’s every day but Christmas 60’s that were egregiously model indicated won’t happen although 40’s into 50’s might for 2-4 days

16.9° for the low. Currently 25.1° and cloudy. Driving around in the hills, it seems like 400’ was the magical number for more accumulation. At 300’, virtually identical to mby at 30’ ASL.

This current pattern isn't ideal so a reshuffle is a good thing. We've just had a nice cold period so obviously the pattern is going to relax some.

Snow shower/flurries quickly pushing into PA

THIS 100%

Bottom line: gotta kick that Aleutian Ridge

Their year there for sure…at least early on it seems. Nobody saw that coming.

If humans make every decision based on the dumbest people of the population, we’d get no where.

Im saying I Know the markets and ive done amazing the last 10 years.

At least VA gets another snow event on the GFS. They could use it.

We can't even do shit the blinds patterns properly anymore

I'm saying this season all the models have struggled mightily. All the models have been having a hard time this season. Sure we will see a reshuffle and that will be a good thing I think.

Low of 15 Minimum wind chill of 0. Currently 24 Doubt I exceed 27

Yup, once again it sets us up with cold from the passage of the lakes low and sneaks in some precip to take advantage shortly thereafter. This really looks like our only long shot chance at a white Christmas if we steal the event itself and hold off enough heat so… may as well track!