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JB says it's discontinuous retrogression and 1985 is the analog. I have no idea if that's good or bad for us.

GFS looks great for the NYC metro! Get your snow shovels and salt ready again.

Sleety north. Get that wpf bomb south please.

End result is pretty similar. Just won't budge south since 06z though. ENS will be intriguing.

We need you here in the forum. It will get warmer here...sometime. Just hang on tight till we get out of this winter. Only a few more months of winter to go.

Monmouth county is going to win on that GfS run but overall a great run for all of us!

Just like 12z was, it's still a good run.

Gfs

It’s pretty sleety, at least. I’ll share the map once it generates.

This hasn’t changed in like 5 days . 1-4” in SNE. Lowest valleys, shore .. highest hills and North of 90

It looks like 18z GFS won't be what we want.

GFS looks good for 2 inches area wide!

HRDPS too

AIGFS is a little colder on the surface then previous runs. Not super ptype confident but think it might be snow -> ice for most north of 66 (for Friday)

GFS manages to squeak out a little Christmas Day snow TV for some folks in northern Maryland. Torchmas

Until tomorrow

Extreme temperature gradients in Asia and North America with multiple 4 to 5 sd jet streaks. Overall, the Northern Hemisphere is very warm for this time of year due to the warmth covering more real estate. So it will be hard to trust individual model storm details beyond 72-96 hrs. Since a tiny shift in the gradient between the strong 500 mb mid and high latitude blocking ridges can cause a big swing in local sensible weather. So we can say it’s looking like a very active pattern with the details to be worked out in the short term.

This is what we need at a minimum. A more established block /more confluence/ stronger HP to the west of the 50-50 low would be better.

I actually didn't say I preferred it, you assumed that..it was noteworthy because the models suddenly chopped 20° off our highs overnight. But of course, your assumption was correct. The untimely melting of the snow makes for a bare Christmas, but the ground is frozen and lakes covered in ice and January and February are big winter rec months in Michigan...so why on earth would I want 60 over 40?

Yeah…high outlier comes back to earth. Still think 1-3” away from immediate shore is the good play.

That's freaking awesome.

Between the increasing snow forecasts for our area and the kids running thru norovirus (some at peak, some all better), the trip will be on Wednesday. Dealing with Christmas Eve traffic seemed the better choice. GYX afternoon added an inch to the above 3-5. Hoping for nice dendrites and 12-15:1 ratios rather than crummy flakes and 8-9:1.

Ideally yes. Lets hope. I have my doubts.

nice rug pull at 18z. HRGEM is paltry