All Activity

gfs/ggem more W/NW timing for Saturday, Euro op timing is really good for most though

60kt microburst with .06" rain. ha

More NNE. Let’s end Brian’s drought with his roof blown off.

Wispy Steinrrus

Four Seasons Winter, Spring, Summer 2024-2025 scoring 12 pts to winner, 10 down to 1 point for rest of field, and 1 point for all entrants with at least 2 of 3 contests entered. (said I would add this to annual scoring, it may eventually get moved there but for your current interest I have posted it today ... annual leader Tom had a low score in Dec 2024 which explains how this is closer than the points contest for annual 2025) ____________________________ winter ___________ spring _________ summer________ FORECASTER _____________TOTAL __pts___TOTAL _pts __ Jun Jul Aug_ TOTAL _pts __ TOTAL Points ___ Consensus ___________ 1771 __ 9.7 ____ 1767 ___7.4 __ 760 788 540 _ 2088_ 10 ___27.1 Tom _______________________1417 ___ 1 _____ 2053 __ 12 ____788 780 586 _ 2154 __12 ___ 25 so_whats_happening ______1662 ___ 8 ____ 1805 ___ 8 ____ 724 774 540 _ 2038 _ 8 ____24 Don Sutherland1 __________ 1587 ___ 5 _____1733 ___ 6 ____ 742 774 572 _ 2088 _ 10 ____21 Scotty Lightning __________ 1542 ___ 4 _____1741 ___ 7 ____ 766 758 528 _ 2052 _ 9 ____ 20 RJay ______________________ 1703 ___ 9 ____ 1689 ___ 5 ____ 758 746 468 _ 1972 _ 5 ____ 19 StormchaserChuck _______ 1328 ___ 1 _____1953 ___10 ____ 718 724 568 _ 2010 _ 7 ____ 18 BKViking __________________1805 __ 12 ____ 1621 ____ 4 ____ 692 --- --- ___ 692 _ 0 ____ 16 hudsonvalley21 ____________1532 ___ 3 ____ 1933 ___ 9 ____ 740 758 452 _ 1950 _ 4 ____ 16 wxallannj __________________1800 __ 10 ____ 1561 ____ 3 ____732 728 446 _ 1906 _ 2 ____ 15 wxdude64 ________________ 1653 ___ 7 _____ 1436 ___ 1 ____ 724 746 510 _ 1980 _ 6 ____ 14 Roger Smith _______________ 1617 ___ 6 _____ 1368 ___ 1 ____ 686 800 394 _ 1880 _ 1 ____ 8 RodneyS __________________ 1488 ___ 2 _____1474 ____ 2 ___ 648 640 650 _ 1938 _ 3 ____ 7 ___ Normal _______________ 1387 ___ 1 _____ 1440 ____1 ____ 612 616 550 _ 1778 _ 1 ____ 3 (Yoda 542 Aug) ___________________________ Several with a chance of winning this in the last seasonal addition at end of NOV.

Same split first two days of month, 78/56 . Now 12 straight days with no measurable rain.

Got mine done over the weekend. Hope the well holds up during the stein

Should be a wild day

Fairly good agreement on a trough over the Eastern Conus in modeling in agreement with the overall troughy pattern that has been established, leads to higher than normal confidence in a recurve

My CoCoRaHS gauge caught only .64" in August. Lawn is completely dormant.

We only had 2" in August here. Slight chance tomorrow, but overall looks really dry through at least mid September. Hopefully we get blasted with 5"+ from some remnants in the 2nd half of the month.

Last year beautiful colors in my parts

NCAR is refurbishing their website. Tropical Cyclone Guidance Project Appears to be a lot of new variables to be disseminated.

Not that I believe it, but HH GFS is acceptable here for late week through Sunday.

Table of forecasts for September 2025 FORECASTER _______________ DCA _NYC _BOS _ORD _ATL _IAH __DEN _PHX _SEA Scotty Lightning _____________ +1.5 _+1.0 _+1.0 _ +1.0 _+1.5 _+1.5 __+1.0 _+1.5 _+0.5 Roger Smith _________________ +1.0 _+1.0 _+1.0 _ +1.5 _+1.5 _+1.5 __+2.0 _+2.0 _+2.0 hudsonvalley21 ______________ +0.3 _-0.2 _-0.3 _-0.6 _+0.5 _+0.2 __+0.5 _+1.0 _+1.5 yoda _________________________ +0.3 _-0.3 _-0.6 _+0.4_+0.9 _+1.0 __+1.3 _+1.4 _+2.7 DonSutherland1 ______________+0.2 _ -0.1 _ 0.0 _ +0.4 _+0.3 _+0.8__+1.8 _+1.7 _+3.2 RJay _________________________+0.1 _ +0.1 _ +0.1 _ +0.5 _ 0.0 _ +1.1 __+2.0 _+2.0 _+2.2 ___ Normal ____________________0.0 __0.0 __0.0 ___0.0 __0.0 __0.0 ___ 0.0 __0.0 __0.0 wxallannj ____________________ -0.2 _-0.4 _-0.3 _-0.8 _+0.2 _+0.5 __+1.0 _+1.5 _+2.5 ___ Consensus ______________-0.2_-0.3 _-0.3 _-0.6 _ 0.0 _ +0.9 __+1.0_+1.4_+1.9 so_whats_happening ________-0.3 __0.0 _ +0.2 _+0.3 _-0.5 _ -0.5 __+1.2 _+1.4 _+1.3 Tom _________________________ -0.9 _-1.2 _ -1.1 __ -1.5 _ -0.8 _ +1.1 __ +1.5 _+0.6 _+1.8 BKViking _____________________-1.9 _ -2.1 _ -1.8 _ -2.3 _-0.5 _-0.4 __+1.0 _+1.8 _ +0.4 RodneyS _____________________-2.3 _ -0.9 _-0.8 _ -2.2 _-2.3 _+0.9 __+0.3 _+0.5 _+1.8 wxdude64 ___________________-2.5 _ -1.6 _ -0.9 _ -2.6 _-0.8 _ +0.5 __-0.6 _+0.7 _+1.9 StormchaserChuck1 _________ -2.6 _ -2.0 _-1.6 _ -3.5 _-0.8 _ -0.1 __ +0.5 _+0.4 _+3.0 ============ ___ Persistence _______________ -3.6 _-2.3 _-2.1 __-0.5 _-2.0 _+1.7 __+0.9 _+3.8 _+1.4 ________________________ Warmest and coldest forecasts (not including Persistence) are color coded. Normal is also coldest for PHX and SEA. Persistence is colder than all forecasts for NYC and BOS, and warmer for IAH and PHX. (by small margins except for PHX)

82/50 at CON today. Avg 66…normal 66. Right on the money.

It’s Stein . There is zero severe threat

Lol... Right. Normal high temp.for today is 77. But yeah .. we're burning up!!!

Some yellows se of Baltimore today. Probably drought related as much as cool temps.

Loving these cirrus with fallstreaks to the north right now.

Saturday brings the better chance of some severe storms as instability increases and lift arrives in the form of a cold front. Details will ride on exact timing and stregth of this front, how unstable we can get ahead of it, etc.

It has been 2.5 weeks without rain. The lawns have de-greened quite a bit. We could use a good soak again.

In theory the atmosphere should be even more nina like than last year. La Niña development started taking off around a month ago, and will likely be stronger than it was last year in late fall. Whether it lasts long enough to register as an official La Niña by ONI is uncertain, but it doesn’t really matter. At this point, the logical assumption is to expect weak la Niña conditions this winter.

Generally cool and dry conditions will persist through tomorrow. Highs will generally top out in the upper 70s with lows in the 50s outside New York City and low 60s in New York City. It will turn somewhat warmer late in the week with highs on Thursday through Saturday reaching the lower and possibly middle 80s before another cooler air mass moves into the region. A system could bring some showers on Friday. Another round of showers is possible late Saturday into Sunday. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.4°C for the week centered around August 27. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.33°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.32°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue into early autumn. The SOI was -1.42 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.304 today.

Since 1869, there were 26 cases prior to 2025 where August saw < 2" of rain. Just over two-thirds (69%) went on to see a drier than normal (historical 1869-2024 baseline) September. Of those dry September cases, 61% then saw above normal rainfall in October, but 39% experienced another month of below normal rainfall (again using the historic baseline). Anticipating that the question might be raised concerning snowfall in the winter that follows, the shaded regions had the highest frequency of < 20", < 15", and < 10" snowfall. The non-shaded regions had the highest frequency of 30" or more snowfall (with or without the August precipitation constraint). Nevertheless, the statistical relationship is weak.