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EPS going with the OP in LR in really driving that PNA ridge up. That would bring in the chance for some coastals maybe in the 3rd week of the month.

Not uncommon...lol.

@The 4 Seasons 3” total in Dayville (there may be some “official” numbers from East Killingly or Danielson too)

Up until last winter the GEFS was owning the EPS on Pac based stuff for like 5-6 years in the long range, that changed last winter and so far this winter that trend has continued. What has happened though the past winter and a half now is the GEFS is owning the EPS long range on the NAO stuff it seems so maybe lean towards each idea on both with that

Overall in the means the pattern has definitely been different than what we’ve seem from the mid 2010s until recently. It seems like it was just about impossible to get sustained western US ridging for many years. Alek always used to post about how it’s always wet in this new climate. We’ve seen some deviation from that recently too.

Miserable day. I came down with that cold that’s going around to start the year off the right way. A thaw would be nice. A few days near 55 with no wind please

Yeah BDR. I had just posted it. lol

Ensembles aren’t out yet…GEFS mostly out and they are kind of meh. OP euro decided to go cold post-1/11.

Euro Colder, GFS warmer.. Going to be sometime to figure that period out.. We track the small events in the meantime

Snow showers this morning. Might have eeked out 0.1" of fluff with that heavier band that went through. +/- sd's across NE MN this morning. Keeping my eye out for something decent 7-10 days out. My modelling method is showing potential, it looks like gov models are picking up on it, too.

I had 4.5” in that, ~10 miles NW of there, sitting at 16.5” on the season

My parents are in the north end near ydc. My dad estimated 2-3” from that. I wonder if the observer had .25 instead of 2.5. That would match up better with the MHT 0.02” QPF.

December fooled us a bit. The only trustworthy long range looks are ones that show CAD or spring-like boomers. Who says no?

Yup...I am intrigued in that period too. Looks quite chaotic and that combined with the variance indicates the pattern should be more on the active side.

How did the post 1/10 period look to you today Will?

It’s moving at exactly the same pace it has for eons and we are 10 days in. so from a purely quantitative standpoint, your post is as pointless as it is meritless.

.50" from the squall

Been a 8 years since the sub as whole has seen a colder Dec.

Damn. What a classic look to score around here in January. We actually do decent with well-defined SWFE looks like this. I dig it

I wouldn't be a surprised to see a day or three like that, but I don't think that will be representative of the majority of the month.

In everyone’s defense, these waves are pretty weak sauce. Not much upside. The 1/6 wave has the most upside imho if it can maintain enough integrity…better antecedent airmass too. But even that one prob has upside of like 3-5” and the reality is likely significantly less than that. Im more interested in the post-1/10 pattern evolution. Been a lot of variance on that.

somehow I feel like that energy back in the SW ~7th is holding back on the potential for the wave to amplify a bit more

I did't get that from the post of his that I agree with, but figured maybe there was another one that I didn't see.

Really… on January 1st…what’s happening to you Ken? Does the back creak on July 1st? And no, I’m not glass full or overflowing all the time either. Looks like we have a couple threats to track again…I’ll enjoy whatever snow we can get. Long way to go…winter only officially 10 days old..back in great shape. And when we get the thaw, to whatever degree it comes with here, we will enjoy the nicer temps for a little reprieve.

Got woken up to the squalls moving through early this morning. Absolutely smoked. Shook the house. The snow coated everything in an inch of its life. A great start to 2026 imo. Kudos to the hi-res that were on this potential from 36-48 hrs out. This was a strong axis of PVA coupled with impressive PBL dynamics. One thing I learned many years ago with talking to Bernie Rayno at the AMS Conference in Phoenix in 2015, while drinking and nerding out over winter weather….fresh injections of Arctic air tend to bring fresh coatings of white in their paths. This was no different. Happy to see all the cool reports and for some of these pics out of Western MD depicting a winter wonderland @nj2va Happy New Year everyone. Let’s bring home a good winter after a solid start for most.