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So it’s Monday…

Bottomed out at 15.5 degrees around 3 am, then once again temp started to rise and managed to pull off a non-diurnal temp for what seems like the 10th to 12th time since Christmas, crazy. Currently 21.4/13.0 at 8 am with SW 8 gutsing 22 mph winds.

4.0” here in Hubbentucky. I’m sure 4.5” in Templeton

The ensemble for the 6z AIFS is almost identical to the 6z Euro…looks like they may have fixed the algorithm for the ensemble at wxbell. General agreement right now between deterministic models and their ensembles and the AIFS ensemble. Either way, four days to go(five for some), this could change. Right now the 6z AIFS is an increasingly bonified cutter. The AIFS has change quite a bit overnight. The AI models handle hp over the top completely differently. Honestly, I don’t trust the AI models as they have each burned me this winter pretty badly…I will have to dig back through the Dec or Jan thread and find it. The AIFS Euro has been very warm d5-15 and badly so…but sometimes it swings very cold. I have found the Euro to be more dependable in my own experience as we have gotten deeoer into winter. The AI models look over amped….but deterministic models seem to be inconsistently handling the Baja low. The AIFS models may or may not be mishandling hp over the GL area…deterministic models have been sometimes too aggressive with cold this winter. When looking at the model verification graph posted by Tellico last night….the AIFS was kind of mid. The best model was the AIFS Euro ensemble, then the EPS, and then the Euro. Now, admittedly maybe that was just for that moment in time. As for the AiGFS…it has been completely awful at all ranges. I give it no credence. The UKMET/AIFS is a formidable pair and cannot be discounted. As for now, neither is budging.

There are two possible outcomes for this event: 1. A major ice storm affects southern CAD zones, and DC and points north get a major snowstorm. (Euro AI, UKMET, GFS AI, Euro) 2. A major snowstorm affects southern CAD zones, and DC and points north receive little to nothing. (GFS, CMC) What do we know of each model? The Euro AI is often locked onto an event inside D5 and is often deadly inside that range, but can be locked onto an incorrect solution, only to fold 48 hours before the event (credit to @high risk). It also often has a QPF bias. The Euro often tends to overamp low pressure systems, but it also tends to hold back energy in the Baja. It also often has a QPF bias. The GFS tends to show more suppressive, progressive solutions, and often tends to verify NW. The CMC has a major cold bias, and tends to overdo Arctic HPs. It also, generally, has a suppressive bias, but it is less prominent than the GFS. The UKMET tends to struggle on thermals, often being too warm. It also tends to overamp systems. Since the GFS AI is new, I don't know much about it. Although more operational models (that I'm aware of; I have no idea what Google's model outputs) support the northern solution, ensembles have been trending colder and snowier towards the southern solution over the last 24-36 hours. This is why I am skeptical to declare victory for the northern solution just yet. It would be easy to go with the Euro AI, just because that has been the best performing operational this winter inside D5. However, a major caveat to this is that the upcoming HP may be so anomalous that it hasn't received enough training data to output the correct solution, just due to its inexperience (credit to @WxUSAF). This should be a good test for the AI Euro. Now, it's too early to declare anything, but I am leaning towards the northern solution. 1050 HPs are extremely rare and often overdone in setups like these, and I don't think it'll be able to suppress it enough. However, if a ultra-strong HP does pan out, the Euro AI may have a greater probability of being wrong. Stay tuned...

I just want to de-clothe and lay in the middle of the yard

Low of 17F here. But, of course, we have bare ground.

4" at my office marstons mills.

And that the speedo fits

16

AI’s seem to love a snowstorm up here

Thursday looks like the only "warm" day and that's upper 30s/low 40s. The rest of the week looks primed to keep the ground cold. High in the 30s, lows in the mid 20s.

I hope we all just take a moment to appreciate that winter is here. Ice on the river. Snow on the ground. Arctic cold on the way. Ok, now that that’s over, let’s bring this next one home.

I'm no expert so take what i say with a grain of salt what i do have is years of living experience around here plus the ability to read....what i also have is an insatiable desire to troll JI and to instigate

8

THIS.

I don’t know what this is worth but the iPhone weather app is calling for 16-20” on Sunday. I’m not sure which model this is coming from but I can easily see a scenario where this happens. A massive overrunning event from the south running into a bitterly cold air mass can get it done. And can come north. This looks a lot like PDII, and while it initially wasn’t supposed to hit NYC let alone SNE, it eventually dropped 27” in Boston.

about 6"+/- Nashua/ 26F Scooter Congrats! Your son gets an A+ , while you were sleeping! Hope the majority got some as well.

4.75 here in Dayville

9.7

Thank goodness…looks like you jacked. And good for you. You were definitely due. Glad you guys got the goods. Will this satisfy you for a little while? Hopefully curb the incessant whining? Snow isn’t melting either. And Hopefully we all get more being we still have two full weeks of January left, and 8 weeks total of the winter season to go yet. Enjoy .

Snow is really holding on out there. It looks like about 5-6 inches total for the weekend in Central MA.

You'd think! A fail would just be bad luck i.e. a random anomalous high at the wrong time. But hopefully not!

We had 6 just shy of 11 here, and there is just shy of two more out there now. Obviously it’s compacted some, but there definitely was close to that here, no doubt

Always, smh Although it has been awhile since we've had this kind of moisture from the stj during a nina...so you'd hope that would help. But then ya got that dang high pressing (not sure if that's a random NS thing or not).