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Odds up at 2pm Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Mon Aug 18 2025 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America: Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Erin, located near the Southeast Bahamas. Tropical Atlantic: A tropical wave located over the eastern tropical Atlantic is producing limited disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression could form toward the end of the week. This system should move westward to west-northwestward at about 20 mph across the central tropical Atlantic and approach the vicinity of the Leeward Islands on Friday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent. $$ Forecaster Roberts

Plenty of his posts have been either deleted or edited recently. For the most part he has taken the hint after some advice behind the scenes. If a poster is continuing to be annoying, either put them on ignore or report them.

Count me in this group. Erin did mount a bit of a comeback, but the structural changes and shear has taken a toll. Still a dangerous storm to be sure, but just entering a new phase of its life cycle as it turns north and expands dramatically. Here's the last 10 hours on IR. Perhaps of note (or not), both the 12z HAFS and Euro pull this significantly closer to the Outer Banks. There have been some modeling head fakes, hence my skepticism, but as we know Erin has been pulling more west at times. Flooding will be the major issue there, but it looks like a TS watch may be justified later today. Even though it won't be a direct hit, I hope Outer Banks folks are taking this seriously.

I see 12z Euro now gives us a significant amount of rain Wednesday. Keeping my fingers crossed because we really need it. Almost nothing here over the last month.

So many people posting fake videos on Tik Tok about Erin hitting the coast

So many people posting fake videos on Tik Tok about Erin hitting the coast

Is it possible to restrict Barry's posting to the banter thread. Has contributed literally nothing this entire time and has been clogging up the thread with nonsense.

Agree. Cold and windy in mid August is not what the people want. Maybe a nice day for a big hike, or for KDX to do some tree murder, but that's about it. Good thing the HHH returns for the weekend.

Evacuation Orders on the Outer Banks. Absolutely fascinating watching the evolution. Beating a dead horse for one last time. Yah, Yah, Yah I know... -------- I'm squarely at ground zero (only 10D to go) for the next

I concur. It looked like it was really going to take off again this morning, but concentric banding and increasing shear are keeping Erin's core in check. The windfield continues to expand. Slill a large and powerful major hurricane, but it should weaken, albeit slowly, from here on out.

The SPC is too hung up on that struggling MCS across S WI and N IL. Main focus will be south near remnant outflow, which is partially washing out to the far west in IA. E IA into N IL will be more of the focal point for new development this afternoon.

Solid garden variety storm

I think we’re in the slow weakening phase now. With the core looking disrupted and wind expanding in all quadrants and the system now experiencing some northerly shear (which its northerly motion now put it directly in the line of fire with) I expect a slow rot of intensity. Likely remains a major through midweek but I believe we’ve already witnessed our secondary peak

Not what I want to hear. Moving my daughter into ODU on Wednesday. Don’t need rain. Will be windy enough from Erin approaching

Lots of U30s

69.4/39 with full sun Yore

We are getting some clearing right after the line so there’s still a chance of storms this evening

Eye obscured, and looks to be open to the south.

SPC already trimmed the slight out of southwestern WI behind the ongoing band, so looks like they expect primary severe threat to be with that and not any redevelopment later this afternoon.

Cloudy and windy on the shore today. Ocean is choppy; not too many in the water. No rain yet...

NAM looks stout. As in beer.

fwiw... for those who need rain: 12z/18 NAM suite in particular has iso 3-6" near ABE and spotty SNE just outside our forum. 12z/18 Canadian and GFS coming up. No thread but monitoring. I think the NAM is telling us something that could happen around here but far too early, in light of model spread, to start a thread. Right now, I'll monitor WPC to see if start adding a little qpf to our NYC subforum. Yesterdays 2-5" vicinity Philly was not well handled by the SPC HREF.

Im not sure but suspect they might have seen plenty of cloud cover this month.