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The fall colors on trees are muted this year due to this drought. We definitely can use the rain, but it will be too late to make those changing colors pop. Looking at the forecast models it doesn't look like much rain is in store for NJ in the next 5-7 days. One system will move to the west, in the Ohio River valley, up in to Canada. Maybe some showers overnight Sun in to Monday. I had hoped the system this past weekend would help change the pattern, but I guess not.

He's wrong. The paper documents sea rise that began some 6,000 years ago.

Your table shows the 2F cooling associated with the Phoenixville move, but you need to go back to 1945 to capture the Coatesville move. Here are two data tables which isolate the moves more clearly. Roughly 2F cooling according to the raw data. Regarding the site photos which you complained about. Coatesville's housing stock is almost entirely pre-1920, the city's population peaked in 1930, so todays photos provide useful information about conditions in 1945.

Words of wisdom WolfStock1 - thank you!!

Holy crap with the winds. Stronger than during the nor'easter.

It was much warmer last October than is likely this time around. Last October had a mean temperature of 60.9° in New York City.

@wxmeddler or @Eskimo Joe, DM @dendrite to answer a question or 2

Colors are starting to pop.

Found this screen cap I took. It was Nov 16, 2006. Haven't looked at H5 yet so it may not even be a close match - but anecdotally that's my high water level for Oct/Nov severe potential.

too cold, my heat is on

It's really one of those times when I might be "in" just purely based on the dynamics. Even without moisture it has the feels of one of those very gust shower lines...and more upside potentially. I think there was a really potent storm system in like November 2006 that did some fun stuff around these parts

How much colder is this October than last year's October Don? I like year to year comparisons.

Awesome, ha. Yeah App Gap on RT 17 gets up near 2,400ft passing MRG… no shortage of switchbacks. I bet there was rime ice from the high elevation clouds all up and down the Spine.

Other than a brief warm up this weekend, typical Fall weather-normal to below normal temps- looks likely in the LR per the ensembles through the end of the month, and the week beyond into early Nov on the extended products. Bring it. Love me some 'normal' weather in Fall, whether it rains or not. It's simply the best imo. Also wouldn't mind seeing an h5 look like this in January.

Tomorrow morning will again be very chilly. Lows in New York City will be in the middle 40s. 30s will be common outside the City with colder spots falling into the 20s. It will turn milder during the weekend. Partly to mostly sunny conditions should prevail. In the 18 past years where Central Park saw at least two 80° or above highs and Newark saw at least two 84° or above highs during the first week of October, the temperature returned to 70° or above on at least one day during the second half of October in 17 (94.4%) of those cases. For all other cases, 84.1% saw at least one such high temperature during the second half of October. Therefore, the sharp cool spell very likely won't mean that New York City has seen its last 70° or above high temperature. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around October 8. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.12°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.42°C. La Niña conditions will likely continue through mid-winter. The SOI was +3.54 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.697 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 60% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 58.5° (0.6° above normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 1.6° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

I was on 17 East today from Middlebury to Hill Farmstead and customer visits. Saw some flurries up near MRG. Was my first time on that road. All those horse shoe and hair pin turns. I was so car sick and I was driving . Holy shit . That area is insane . I could see white trees up above 3500 ‘ or so . Maybe Rime ice?

Maybe some more freezes?

I hyperlinked the paper regarding sea level rise at Delos. A key chart: There was more to the story than war. Moreover, the historic site continues to be reclaimed by the sea. https://www.mdpi.com/2077-1312/12/6/870 In short, I made sure that the information was verifiable.

Cold day. High was 32F up above 3,500ft. First true day requiring hat and gloves on the hill. Frosted tips from rime up high.

High of 62 after a low of 43. Damn near perfect mid October day.

I think the Newfoundland warm or cold pool effects whether or not that linkage occurs as it affects the likelihood, longevity and strength of a 50-50 Low. Maybe, Chuck, Larry or Don will take the time to research that and see what the numbers show irt to that.

The Cold pool lends to a 50-50 Low of which stops any linkage.

Yeah, that has occurred more often in later Year's.