All Activity

This could have some of the most substantial indirect impacts we've seen. It's already very large and could double by the time it nears Hatteras. Substantial coastal erosion, flooding, even TS impacts along the coast.

An update from yesterday's run for week of 8/25 fwiw.

GEFS ensemble puts SEMA in the picture. Run is pretty west and has jumped big time over the last day. This has trended west almost this entire time. I’d guess it is gonna just keep going west until it runs into NC and then goes north to scrape Cape Cod.

Some records from 1993 have been very difficult to beat. It still remains the only year where the warm spots had 100° heat from June through September. Was the only year with 9 days getting to 100°. But the 2020s are getting close to surpassing the 1990s for total 100° days with 4 years to go. The 2020s only need 3 more 100° days to set the new record. Monthly Highest Max Temperature for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ June Through September Maximum Temperatures Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 2025 103 101 96 M 103 2021 103 97 99 91 103 2011 102 108 98 88 108 1994 102 99 95 92 102 1993 102 105 100 100 105 1952 102 98 92 94 102 1943 102 95 97 93 102 1988 101 101 99 86 101 1966 101 105 95 91 105 2024 100 99 100 87 100 1959 100 93 96 93 100 1953 100 99 102 105 105 1934 100 98 90 85 100 1923 100 99 92 90 100 Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Jan through Dec 100° Days Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 1993 9 0 2 1949 8 0 3 2025 7 136 4 2022 6 0 - 1953 6 0 6 1988 5 0 - 1966 5 0 100° days 1990s….19 days 2020s…17 days 1940s….16 days 1950s….15 days 2010s….13 days 2000s…11 days 1980s….9 days 1960s….6 days 1970s….3 days

The forecast track really hasn't shifted all that much over the last few days when taking into consideration that it would have taken a few hundred miles in shift to bring direct impacts to the coast

I was leaving the jersey shore and getting gas in Brick when the storms rolled thru. Lightning struck directly across the street and everyone lost power….after 3 gallons

Didn't get much fanfare but yesterday was the hottest day of the month in Boston.

Not sure about Phoenix as a whole. But the heat island effect looks saturated at the Sky Harbor airport which isn't far from downtown. Actual and adjusted temperatures have warmed at the same rate since 1980. This means that the airport is warming at the same rate as regional sites outside of the Phoenix heat island. Before 1980 there is evidence of heat island warming at the airport (or some other site specific issue).

I just closed a couple.

Westward'ho. The track keeps ticking wnw. It's going to be close for obx i believe,she's making her own way tbh,a total monster of a storm currently.

49.4° 30s up yonder

Had 1.90" in the COCORAHS gauge this morning.

Down to 61F in E CT, only 0.05” here, not nearly enough. The good news is the air is off for most of the week!

45 outside, 50 at the kitchen island- I probably shouldn't have left all the windows open last night

Picked up 0.87" of rain last night. Well done, atmosphere.

Trade winds/EWBs look to strengthen significantly in the coming couple of weeks which will enhance a more La Niña and -AAM regime as we go into met fall

Definitely cool out there and breezy.

Orioles shut out Astros 2 out of 3 games... I never saw that coming! Lol

This is way more intense than Georges was, especially after Georges interacted with land throughout the Caribbean. In fact, if I recall, Georges sort of underperformed in the Gulf of Mexico.

30c water temps working their magic. We see it in the gulf and west pac. Here we go with the Atlantic version.

How did Georges 1998 compare

Good grief Erin is primed to explode.

Yeah, I'm starting to feel like I may eat my words that Erin would never be able to regain Category 5 intensity. It may still not, depending on how much it needs to bomb a pressure drop to contract that RMW enough to get there again. But deep convection is really circumventing the eyewall at present, and at this rate, all the old cloud debris in the eye should dissipate at some point this morning. If we get a warm symmetrical eye during the daylight hours today, it may well exceed my expectations. We're going to have some interesting recon flights today.

The appearance has improved dramatically as the deep convection is now fully wrapped.