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Sometimes there is way too much focus on what phase a particular teleconnection is in or what the upcoming phase will be, however, there really is no right answer. It depends on what outcome or result you're looking for. Generally speaking, the most active weather is going to occur during the transition period, this is when you're most likely to see potential for stronger weather systems. This is why if you're rooting for a big dog, like a top percentile type of snowstorm along 95, you want to see the NAO becoming less negative with respect to time as a storm is riding up the coast. In the sense of the PNA you would probably want to see the PNA becoming positive (ridge building into the west) but ultimately, you would want the PNA to be progressive or transient because you want that trough to continue ejecting east which would then come with ridging building into the West (developing RNA). If you're looking for active weather you would want the pattern to setup and kind of remain a fixture for a period of time...this is something that can work extremely well for us and is how we get the periods like we did in like 1996, 2011, 2013. But because pieces are constantly moving globally it is extremely difficult to get such regimes to develop and maintain during the cold season. What you would hope is to get a great pattern to develop but be able to revert right back to that type of pattern after periods of relaxation.

Warmup doesnt seem long anymore. Models seem to focus on the flip around the 12th.

EPS shows NN temps (at least at 850mb) starting Jan 11 onwards. As a reminder, our Jan climo 850s are at -3 to -4, so it can still snow (or mix) if 850s are slightly AN. GEFS/GEPS is warmer and more borderline, and delays the cold by a day or two. We want to root for Euro to be right.

The banter in the Jan Med/LR thread this morning (and much of the last few days/weeks) is too much. Wish people would move it here to Banter where it belongs. It's no wonder why so many red taggers and the more established members of the forum have absconded the last few years. We've seen the flood of banter in the LR before during times when there's not much to track and run-to-run hope-casting drives the dialogue; it's getting old (despite the best efforts from the more established members to normalize expectations). Been on this forum since nearly day one and was a long timer on Eastern before going back to the late 90's. The influx of banter in the Med/LR has always been a challenge, but it's much worse in recent years (as others have commented about on why they no longer post much). Maybe that's the result of the explosion of social media where the trend today is to type and send before thinking. There's so many posts that people unleash in a knee-jerk reaction that should be considered for a while and then deleted; as some have commented about doing themselves (for those who exercise good self-moderation, hats off!) Again, the focus is on the smut in the LR page. Many of the newer posters need to either post their banter here or read more and post less in the LR page. We all want snow, but the other junk is getting old.

Well i successfully shoveled my driveway earlier this time versus yesterday doing it then having a 10 minute coughing /gagging attack cause of this dam cold! Yey!

I tend to agree and suppression would be equally bad if we swing for too much cold. My only concern with Canada being the only source region is how much cold air do we scour out through the 10th and is there any room for a resupply? It’s going to be like walking on a tightrope looking at the ensembles because Canada modifies quite a bit.

Both can work in New England. Some huge storms here with both. -PNA you don’t want it dipping down in Mexico though …you don’t want it to severe.

It depends...the issue isn't as binary as the question implies. It depends on the pattern and location....generally speaking, +PNA is beneficial anywhere on the east for cold, phase potential....but in the northeast, sometimes a more neutral or even negative PNA is preferred if there is a major NAO block....below about 40N, you always want a +PNA.

Luke, c’mon man, I know you think it’s funny, and it is at times. But when do you stop the constant ribbing? If you’re remotely being serious…I’d give it at least 3-4 days before we really know for sure which way it’s leaning. But whatever.

Flurries and 24F. Deep winter. Great mid season winter vibes, cold, flurries, gray.

A lazy flurry or two here as well. Just a few 100 bazillion more and we'll be on to something. I can remember as a little kid seeing flurries and not understanding weather (not that I do now), that I could somehow will it to snow if I just concentrated hard enough. Spoiler aleet: it never worked out.

This might not be the right place for this question... and I know there are a million cavoites but in general for snow and cold do you want a + or - PNA. The things are read online are +PNA means colder but slightly drier for the northeast while a -PNA means temps more normal but wetter. Thanks

When do you think we will know?

Usually trough in Europe & trough near Japan corresponds with a trough in the eastern US, but there is usually a brief lag.

Someone replied this to me the other day but the stuff that was supposed to happen next week kind of popped up out of nowhere as an "added bonus" while the flip was always supposed to be roughly mid month. Even BAM's latest post talking about a potential red flag isn't 100% on board with can kicking it. Neither is CWG: https://x.com/capitalweather/status/2007118457418957123

Is it too early in the new year to cancel winter? .

I think there is a recency bias for folks to see a deep, cavernous trough on the west coast, and then just kind of throw their hands up and succumb to the prevailing theme of the decade....but don't forget, that was in fact abandoned last season, regardless of the lack of snow around these parts.

Well at the moment we don’t..so I agree. Just saying.

The EPS would def be more favorable to us in the long range than the GEFS/GEPS. All 3 would offer plenty of chances with that look but the is more of a SE ridge flex on the GEFS/GEPS which we know the risks (and rewards) associated with that. I think the EPS would make it a little easier to sneak a coastal in there.

mm I see some critical changes in the EPS though. namely, 3 days ago ... it, and all of them, were going from the breakdown into a -EPO. 2 days ago, that switched to a +PNA with less coherency inov that Alaskan sector yesterday, we were hybridizing between -EPO and +PNA ..which is like walking on a ruler - not sustainable. meanwhile the operational GFS was thinking it's May 15th now, the EPS is sending a coherent +PNA for 2 to 3 day, that then retrogrades into a -EPO, which is actually kind backward of the canonical evolution. usually, the -epo fades S and the +PNA takes over.... that's like 1 complete cycle. If the winter enthusiast is lucky, that becomes cyclic, meaning more than once. that was 2015... but I'm digressing. Point is, these may seem merely nuanced but they are aberrant enough to gum up the works. all the while, we are waiting for the N. Pacific ridge to collapse.

Yea. We just don’t know.

Congratulations to Tom on his 2025 win, and many thanks to Roger for all the time he has put into this contest over many years.

I still say that the +PNA will win the month. I would be careful about buying the deep -PNA as much as I was the -NAO...I bet we see that go "poof" in like fashion.

Sell the GEFS and ride the horse. Winter continues