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Experience, for sure. I always look at as much available guidance as I can, and when they don't agree, I make mental notes on which ones did well and which didn't. It's not as tough to keep track of as it sounds. Or you can just cheat and use AI:

Normal highs already max out in the upper 80s. Since July daily averages are pretty flat, the avg high for the month is nearly the same. 87/72 at LGA EWR 87/70 Teterboro 87/69 Meanwhile Central Park tops out at 85/71. Philly 88/70 Down in DC they now have normals in July at 90...90/73

So sorry was on vacation DCA: 101 NYC: 97 BOS: 97 ORD: 100 ATL: 99 IAH: 105 DEN: 104 PHX: 118 SEA: 93

Well one is within the same cloud and the other jumps between 2+ clouds. Usually you just see IC or CG reported since it can be difficult to see the path of the bolt.

That's pretty funny .Good one !Lol

Amazing how quick those storms popped up. Checked the radar 10 minutes before taking pictures of the moon and then while I was in the middle of the shoot I felt the gust front and had to scramble into the car. Basically went from 0 on radar to a strong line of storms hitting (with some hail but strangely no real thunder) in 20 minutes

As things look from this juncture ,we have a pretty good shot at a cold/ snowy Winter. The QBO should help lend to a more negative AO and NAO and the other drivers going to a more favorable position I see not much reason to not go for an overall cold and snowy Winter. However ,the IO bears watching as it , as we know, can throw a Monkey Wrench into an otherwise guaranteed Driver Setup but, not too concerned atm .

Is Horrible Hell Heat on the horizon?

Probably once out of puppy stage. Right now he's a lunatic and menace at times.

This is an odd line that has flared up

But one thing I still don't understand is the difference between cloud to cloud and in cloud I feel like they're basically the same. Idk, fire me...

Lol, I know. I observe remember?

Cloud to cloud

Climate change is affecting lightning frequency?

I don't know that the climate is the primary driver for that though. I'm thinking it has more to do with taxes and had more to do with cost of living. My mom and stepdad got their condo by the bay in St. Pete in 2011 for 70K in a short sale. It's now worth around 300K and was worth even more a couple years ago.

Might be hazy tomorrow-HRRR shows another smoke plume coming east behind the front.

Yeap. Line just developed from just north of the Capitol Beltway WSW into The Plains, VA along I-66.

Gotta be fairly wealthy to live in Stowe if you’re moving. Housing costs probably comparable to the Boston area.

From the NOAA marine forecast. That would be a sea breeze. THUSW winds around 10 kt

Only thing torchy is your speed

The 270 split precip magnet is at it again.

Lots of catkins on one of my American chestnut trees this spring. I’m hoping to get my first flowers and burrs this year.

Nice sunset tonight.

Looks pretty! I hope to get to visit someday!

Indeed!!!