All Activity

Tell me what you think about your situation Complication, aggravation Is getting to you The Sunshine scares the daylights out of me.

There are no absolutes, definites or guarantees in weather. You, me or anyone else can’t guarantee MJO phase 8, a SSW or that December is going to be cold on November 20th. If I made a post like that saying it’s going to be warm you would have jumped all over me

Weird. Looks fine on Twitch but not when embedded. Grrr

I must be getting old I can't remember what happened here lol

White Christmas here last year. First in a long time.

would be nice to see a snowier December during the holidays! Last yr had some cold but it was dry as was the whole winter

Dammit! Was working earlier. I’m new to Twitch, I’ll have to figure out what went wrong

I would say both posts suggesting I cool my jets are mostly just excuse making about the accuracy and statements that we should just accept it and don’t complain. Models cover all the bases. Thats how they are scored for funding. So the status quo is content. I see no serious improvement over the last 20 years. I believe they try to do too much, like using a microscope for very close up inspection rather than a more backed off binoculars approach. Between now and Christmas Day we will see everything from 30 and snow to 60 and sun for Christmas Day. That’s not science, that’s cover all bases guesswork

I mean how many damn years lately have we been stuck with La Nina too?

It's something we should be watching closely. The SSWE is imminent. Considering a typical 10-30-day lag, I suspect that the December 10-25 period might see the coldest anomalies relative to normal for such cities as Chicago, New York, and Philadelphia. That's still far out and we'll have to see how things evolve (does the PV split, where do the twin vortices wind up, etc.).

I used to be hopeful but after the last 9 years I can say unlike Justin Berk, I do not have faith in the flakes haha.

Bottom 3 most likely

https://www.meteonetwork.it/models/mjo/ I recommend Paul Roundy's site as well. You can look at the MJO in different portions of each month based off research. Both phases 7 & 8 have their best responses in weeks 3&4 of DEC https://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/roundy/waves/rmmcyc/index200reg.html

What is the website for these ENSO based MJO plot composites. Thanks in advance

You are getting a MJO phase 8 with a SSW. Thats a cold wintry signal. December is going to be cold and to think we didn't need a volcano for that to happen. Many people are cautious which is fine but there are signals out there that the MJO will be going into 8.

BOM agrees...almost identical

doesn't work for me either, but could be our company firewall

Getting a clean phase 8 pattern during December is going to be a challenge with any convection lingering near the Maritime Continent.

The Euro Weeklies look like they have for the past 3-4 weeks which is cold weeks 3-6 w a warm up at the very end. They were prob a bit quick with the pattern change. They are about two weeks delayed from the original cold looks of a few weeks ago. For now, I think Dec 10 to just a few days after NYs looks BN for temps. For snow lovers, the concern would be cold and dry. The good thing about a +NAO is that the Gulf would likely be open for business. Could be warm up and rain…just have to time it with some of those inevitable highs coming from the prairies of MT. With a potential for SSW…we could see the cold hit 2-3 weeks after which would be an extension of cold into Jan. Model chaos on the horizon indeed.

My goals before Christmas: Outstanding: multiple snow events, whether all advisory/warning/combination of these Great: One warning level snowfall event. Good: One advisory level snowfall event Bad: No snow Shut the Blinds: patterns fails and we get back to zonal puke

You sure about that?

IMHI, it really isn’t a Texas Blue Norther. That Euro cutoff partially pumps a ridge which locks all but the northern tier out of the cold during the first week of Dec. It is the Four Corners cutoff which drifts southwest into Baja and slowly runs out of steam…that is the pattern issue in my book. I am fine with a SW cutoff which eventually kicks out - pay me now or pay me later set up. The slow stall and drift into Baja is the thorn. The good thing is most ensembles get to the same EPO/PNA ridge setup by ~d14. The NAO(chuck mentions this in the MA) has gone poof, and that doesn’t push BN heights(over Canada) as far south as originally prognosticated. The Weeklies are only half completed as I type. I see Jeff has posted. Gonna hit enter and read it.

Ok but if current ens guidance has the right idea, the combo of a +PNA/-EPO and a southward stretched TPV will begin to provide a mechanism for cold air transport southeastward for the first week to 10 days in Dec.. Beyond that there are hints of Scand ridging expanding into the NAO space- if that does happen and we end up with a -NAO, the cold will be in place underneath.

Deterministic models are pure chaos. Ensembles are flopping around but one can at least find some reasoning for that. After the Thanking cold a brief warmer episode is likely because of a little -PNA. However the Alaska ridge persists, so warmth probably won't. In fact by day 15 the EPS and somewhat GEFS hint at cross polar flow. Some support for return to cold mid-December, and perhaps lasting, comes from a retrograding Rossby wave. Since that's a 500mb feature we don't need to debate the SSW. Strato heights are well AN and want to reflect at 500mb. While I don't believe SSW wrecks cold patterns, it doesn't always favor North America. SSW signal is best for Eurasia. Things like the Rossby wave can turn odds for North America. The weekly charts may be picking up on all this. They go with the warmer week before settling into a colder regime with less back and forth. We'll see. Stuff changes every day. Who knows if all the background forecasts verify? At least the results make some sense this afternoon.

The SE Ridge is kinda like SEC Football. You hate to see it coming, and you know its probably going to win in the end.