All Activity

Models are downright nasty here tomorrow aftn. That is quite the LLJ. I'm also noticing strong low level frontogenesis (coastal front) somewhere near 128 to about here or so. In fact HRRR has over 4.75 here. Seems right with instability aloft and strong LLJ helping with convergence. And yes, snow above 1500' or so in srn VT, Berks, and Monads.

wow the years on this list are a like Who's Who of some of our coldest/snowiest February, March and April patterns and they warmed up so much in May! 2015 ! 1979 1982 ! 2018 ! 2004 1993 ! 1964 2014 1960 ! ! = years had a big snow event in either March or April or both

Like 90% of the rain will happen on Thursday, with only a few showers today and Friday.

Just rain down here.

The cool weather isn't bad I just wish it came with sunshine instead of these out of season coastal lows. May 1-20 didn't actually feel hot at all, just somewhat warm with temperatures in the low 80s. Above normal to be sure, but not hot.

The closest that we got to that was February 2021. It was actually the 19th coldest for the entire CONUS and 9th coldest in the Great Plains. But since the Northern Hemisphere was pretty mild overall, the cold was only able to occupy a narrow portion of the Central CONUS. This is why global temperatures are so important in determining what the range of winter potential here in the CONUS. Less cold means a smaller area will have the cold coverage. This is why the cold was narrowly focused into the Plains and the East Coast was just a little colder than average. If this was the 1970s the cold would have been much more extensive. What may seem like a few tenths to a degree or more globally has very large consequences locally to nationally. This is why we need to know the global to continental patterns in order to know the range of parameters for the winter forecast. The difference between a .250 and .330 batting average to someone that doesn’t follow baseball may seem trivial. But it’s the difference between an average hitter and a baseball leading batting average. Some would say that even though the winters are much warmer these days, what’s the difference since even in a warm winter I still need a coat and gloves. While the 2023-2024 winter was the warmest since 1895 in Michigan at 30.5°, it still felt cold outside. This average was still colder than every NYC winter since the 1970s. A colder winter climate like Michigan will always have more leeway. But where many of us live near the East Coast is along the margins as we warm. So a small shift in storm tracks on a global scale from just SE of I-95 near the Benchmark to west of the big cities and further into the Great Lakes makes a world of difference for our sensible weather.

Dry air eating the rain up as it heads east-very much like our winter disasters, but models seem to be keying in on heavy rain in the morning as the coastal low takes over.

Heavier rain will happen overnight. We should get at least an inch from this event.

Only 51 degrees here right now with light rain. So nasty out there. 0.16" of rain for the day so far. Feels like late March today. I'm going outside shortly for a run, and I'm going to wear gloves lol.

I wish there was a functional feature to block a chosen person's ability to place an emoji upon the down right corner of these posts... So when some -SAD insufferable incel puts a 100% approval on a hate post it tells them, 'seek help' instead. LOL

The epicosity of suck is absolute today... 45 F, slate gray with wind at times has utterly 0 redeeming value. Between today, tomorrow, right thru early Saturday is basically rock bottom for this spring if you ask me. Hell if it'd done this crap in April, I'd almost give it a pass because April's abysmality ( if that could ever be a word ) leaves no expectation anyway so it's kind of living up to it's billing.. But this? In late May? Nope, it is too late in the year to be save rep-wise. Pure putrescence

Hey all, I need to drive to Springfield MA tomorrow or maybe even Friday. Want to avoid that Noreaster rain. What would be a good time to leave. Generally, want to leave the earlier the better. And, I feel that leaving friday would be most people driving due to Memorial day. (sorry if this should be in another forum. "banter" is usually just stuff about someone's new toy like a new car, lol)

Its been in the 50s all day here. Currently 55.

wont be great-ULL still around will be overcast with temps in the 50's by game time

I wonder if local offices pushes for it. They are under a plume of steeper lapse rates moving in from the west and the breaks have yielded some very steep llvl lapse rates. The HRRR does have a few intense storms developing in the next hour or two. Dewpoints on the lower side though for what you'd like to see

Making 'merica great agi'n has NWS short staffed and stressed to substantive analysis ?

Well I got A lot of rain this past Friday night so I'm good lol

It's coming!!! No soundings available, however, if you close your eyes you can see the EML coming straight for us

Wow...don't see this too often. A tornado watch for parts of Ohio and Pennsylvania...under a marginal risk. An MCD was issued 1:46 saying watch unlikely (20%)...then at 2:40 a tornado watch comes out. Environment not terrible with the breaks in the sun there

Me going outside into the slightly less overcast sky.

Radar out west looks paltry. This has the makings of another underperformer potentially. I'm not going to be sad with that outcome.

Fortunately I dont care what most like or want lol. I could do without the rain, but Im always a fan of cool temps.

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 310 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 240 PM EDT Wed May 21 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Eastern Ohio Western Pennsylvania Far Northern West Virginia * Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 240 PM until 800 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Low-topped supercell and related hail/wind and tornado potential should focus in a narrow zone regionally near a warm front this afternoon until around sunset. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles east and west of a line from 35 miles north northwest of Pittsburgh PA to 30 miles west southwest of Morgantown WV. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 55 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 23025. ...Guyer

Hopefully Friday night will be decent for the Mets/Dodgers game. 53 degrees will suck at citi field.

.13" rain last night. 63 degrees at 2:30 is 10 degrees below the normal high of 73. No real improvement tomorrow or Friday.