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12Z UKMET: still no actual TCG shown in textual output but 1007 mb low is E of Nicaragua headed slowly in the direction of Nicaragua. Don’t know yet if it will landfall there though. Run not finished. Edit: looks like it.

Thanks for tagging me @WxWatcher007!! I’ll gladly help provide some insight. First, congratulations to your son opting to go for meteorology! It is a rigorous subject to study and master, but when you truly love something, you will give it your all to succeed and I have no doubt he will do that! No matter the case, if he ever has questions, creating an account here and chiming in on the Banter page will certainly help alert us and we can answer any questions! As for school choice, that is a big life decision and as you mentioned has multi-faceted criteria for picking what is best. Since you are in Virginia, HIGHLY recommend staying in-state with the current state of school cost. Unless there is a well planned and funded secondary source (509’s, inheritance, etc.) which is none of my business and what you can manage… I do recommend staying in your state of residence for lower cost burden. VA has multiple schools for Meteorology and the Virginia Tech program already has a history of putting out grads into the Weather Service and private enterprise. I actually now a few myself, and they are excellent meteorologists. It’s a great program, but does lack a Grad program, as previously mentioned. Having said that, the curriculum is still very respected and the masters programs, if you son is interested, can be accessed at other schools, including the ability to do it virtually!! Millersville University of Pennsylvania (My Alma Matter) has two online Masters programs geared towards Emergency Management or GIS. Mississippi State has an excellent program, as well as Western Kentucky University, University of Oklahoma, and others. The accessibility to have a Masters education is now easier than before, and each school has its niches to help wherever a grad student wants to move towards. Some Universities also have ties together due to professor influences (Millersville had connections to North Dakota University, Wisconsin-Madison, and Wyoming), and others do as well. There’s so many options at the end of the Undergraduate tunnel. My recommendation is staying in-state to save cost (VERY HELPFUL for the future for debt) and go from there. Virginia Tech is a great program and probably a top choice for VA, but UVA I believe also has a program and is also well respected! I hope this helps and good luck to your son and family choice on the next step!!

i don’t know why they even issue outlooks. they just look at a classic ENSO map and plot it.

Wow, I love the optimism, but I am, uuummm, on the complete opposite side as you haha. I think Grunk will be totally overwhelmed in his first start in an environment like that and the team eventually just fades in the second half. I can't get the images of that one game in Iowa City out of my head.......the one where our backup had to come in because Clifford got hurt (I think Robeson was the kid's name?) and he was completely overwhelmed and the game turned into a total sh&t-show. I could be messing up some details but yeah, you get the gist. As always, I hope to be wrong!

In a big change from prior runs, the 12Z CMC hits Nicaragua on 10/24-5 with a strong TS!

Focus is naturally on whether this will be a US threat, but I am very concerned about possible impacts of a slow moving hurricane passing directly over the Caribbean islands. Particularly Haiti which is under a significant humanitarian disaster from ongoing gang violence and political turmoil

I always mention this - but anecdotally these convective lines are well know for coming in a bit earlier than progged at range.

We're now into the range where we can start to see what this looks like in terms of hi-res simulated reflectivity. Both the NAM Nest and HiResW FV3 at 60 hours have an intense line to our west. We'll need a speed-up to boost severe potential locally, but a strongly-forced convective line will likely cross the entire region after dark. Any severe threat, or even lightning potential, will be low due to a loss of diurnal instability, but the dynamics will ensure that both threats are non-zero. And again, if this speeds up by 3-6 hours, the threats for lightning and severe will ramp up accordingly.

Good point. Even Wilmington was colder than Greensboro.

From DT: Folks this is an incredibly bad forecast in every possible way. The premise is that La Nina is going to continue throughout the winter even though ALL of the data clearly shows La Nina ending by December (this includes the climate models which are run by the NOAA/ NWS/ CPC) So the premise of this winter forecast -- that la Nina is going to last through the winter is just absurd. Consider their forecast from last winter VS the actual temperature anomalies for December January February 2024-25. That NOAA NWS forecast was heavily based on the weak La Nina lasting through the entire winter -- which it did. For this coming winter as I mentioned above... the data is overwhelming that the La Nina will be over by January 1-- possibly by the middle of December. Yet the NOAA/ NWS winter forecast 2025-26 is almost identical to the busted one from last year.

That’s awesome! edit I sweat o pasted this before I saw @Itstrainingtime’a identical post!

This jet extension was well modeled on the ensembles 2 weeks ago and it’s verifying. Maybe (hopefully) the models will have some clue about the long range this coming winter

Full defense (mechanism) mode.

Meteorologist Bobby Martrich from EPAWA likes a +TNH pattern with a -EPO for this winter.

Beautiful day indeed Home opener for the Wolf Pack in Hartford tonight, couldn't ask for a better day

Meteorologist Bobby Martrich from EPAWA likes a +TNH pattern with a -EPO for this winter.

Meteorologist Bobby Martrich from EPAWA likes a +TNH pattern with a -EPO for this winter.

And the Sandhills all the way to near the coast. Just inland from Jaxonville got down into the upper 30s

I'll take 10 more of today please. Pretty in the woods.

Maybe he can see in the future .

You really think this winter will not be good ? There are no signs of a crappy winter right now. Yes its early right now so let's see in November. This looks like an average to maybe slightly above average winter for Philly and NYC.

Were we able to grab the data from here?: https://wkevin.com/new_england_snow/

There are two ways for winter temperatures to have an effect on snowfall amounts for any given location. The first is through the average winter temperatures. The second way is the temperatures on the days that the precipitation falls. Even during winters with favorable colder storm tracks for NYC, they don’t reach 50” on the season if the overall winter average is much above 32.0°. So tracks which used to produce heavier snows in a colder climate now produce less as the temperatures become more marginal. The reason you reached 50” in the seasons that NYC didn’t is a function of the colder temperatures where you live. Plus the temperatures aloft are also colder in interior Northern NJ than they are closer to NYC. Many times the coastal fronts stall out just to the north and west of NYC leading to a slower mix or changeover to rain for those areas.

Looks like we'll hit #4 here if forecast holds. Almost lost it yesterday, but got to 60.4F.

our freeze warning was downgraded yesterday to a frost advisory. it briefly got down to 32 so there was some patchy frost.