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Combined, the NW Pacific and NE Pacific are near 700 ACE

We’ll crash fast outside the city-winds are pretty calm and dewpoints around 30. I’m pretty confident many drop into the 30s again and maybe near freezing (of course outside the city).

29 to 61. Felt nice taking the dogs for a walk. Trees really popping now

Looks like a 12/24 map.

Odd. Today is the strongest the weeklies have shown it at 10mb. https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-anomaly-10t?base_time=202610240000&projection=opencharts_north_pole&valid_time=202611090000

Was able to go on a 3 mile walk today. Can’t get better weather.

10/10 day today. Mid 60s.

Today’s Euro weeklies has the trough in the south getting started by week 3 and deepens it the next 2 weeks. This is the earliest the weeklies have showed the southern trough. https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-anomaly-z500?base_time=202610240000&projection=opencharts_north_pole&valid_time=202611230000

This Niño has got to be a financial windfall for the YouTube mets.

First the niño precip was supposed to kick in during late summer then it was Labor Day then it was the equinox then it was late October, now it’s been can kicked to some indeterminate time in November. A couple head fakes occurred in that interval, the most recent one wrapped up a week ago. When is it going to be our turn for a sustained wet pattern with no rug pulls, the stars shouldn’t have to align for our area to get precip…

I haven’t had any complaints. I feel like it’s been a normal to warm fall, like they all are now. I’m just saying it seemed like you were arguing that freezing frost in October was somehow impressive. id have to look when the average 32 date is here, I’m guessing we were later than average

Warm November ahead

New maps reveal who could see more snow during this year’s super El Niño | CNN

Never made sense...the guys on social media calling for "wild weather" ahead in November maybe right for the wrong reason...wildly pleasant weather.

39 this morning on top of the hill. High of 63

DE-FENCE----CLAP-CLAP-CLAP.....DE-FENCE-CLAP-CLAP-CLAP

Good call. The 12z EURO caved on a total wind reversal and split. This is starting to look like a Canadian warming and definitely not a SSWE

This works for me. Below normal temperatures this time of year don’t help in the snow department. Above normal temperatures this time of year are typically tolerable. Let the pattern flip towards Thanksgiving just like last year & then hopefully we can score a little early snow.

We grow and flower .Tgiving or later looks very realistic

Tomorrow and Monday will be unseasonably mild. Temperatures will top out in the middle and upper 60s. A few locations could reach 70° on Monday. Afterward, it will turn slightly cooler with readings in the upper 50s for Monday and Tuesday before temperatures again warm into the lower and middle 60s for the remainder of the work week. Dry conditions will likely persist through next week. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +5.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +3.3°C for the week centered around October 7. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +4.98°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +3.12°C. ENSO Region 3.4 ties the all-time record set in the prior week. The ongoing strong El Niño, will continue to strengthen through the mid-fall. The SOI was +6.77 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.543 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 84% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 59.1° (1.2° above normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 2.2° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

My eyes and my heating oil budget like this!