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Clearly not leaning on gfs with their thoughts since they have the 1” line back to I-81.

that data gap is so stupid. It pisses me off everytime I look at snowfall data.

A 2 pm 4 model blend for Augusta County is .6" Kuchera. WWA's for Rockbridge south for 1 - 3 inches

Dec snows last 100 plus years in Hartford 50/50 shot of big snows.

there is almost a better shot at getting severe weather on May 31 than there is a white Christmas

NWS is very agressive:

Not to mention you can all models/runs for free on Pivotal Weather beta site.

Yep since 1975 25 out of 50 years had 0 snow cover here

Euro operational has cold returning with a vengeance the 26th. Eps? Naso much.

It should be enough to satiate everyone at this point, as it's expanded a great deal.

Not clipper, but interesting I think...The 12z Euro loses the infinite loop feedback over Pac NW. We saw something similar w/ the repetitive and erroneous Baja lows earlier this month. The 12z GFS got locked into a Pac low(maybe it is right?) complex, but the Euro kicked the trough eastward. Take a look at the differences. There is cold air drainage into the NA Prairies on the Euro. Compare that to the GFS at the same hour. Now to be fair, the GFS eventually kicks everything eastward. I think anytime we see a standing ridge over the SE this winter, we are really going to have to question what is going on upstream. Those ridges can happen and there is precedence. But they have been mirages this winter. I do think a Chinook is coming. But until the PAC NW repetitive low situation gets resolved, everything after that is probably a crap shoot. BTW, infinite loops have always interested me, mainly because they are a pain to programmers. I had to take three programing classes at UT. Infinite loops were challenging puzzles to solve, and sometimes a huge pain in the you know what. We really want to be routing for that 1050+ hp to continue to show up on modeling. This could be a blip, but worth watching.

Please keep the bedroom talk between you and wifey private, thanks wolfman

The station recorded a gust of 27 when it blew over. Highest gust of the year and the station is at 2m, so it’s pretty impressive

Biggest caveat I can see now for this clipper, would be the inevitable 2 hours of virga on the front end

The 18z HRRR tries to bring the clipper in a little further west initially with a band of snow from Scott Co Tn, through to about Maynardville and points east.

I know we've hashed this out before, but my buddy's place is a little under 4 miles east of the Tioga/Potter border and a little over 3 miles SSE of Gaines, close to 2,000'.

I’ll be watching from Henderson, NV. It’s gonna suck having 65-70 degree temps and sunshine. But honestly, I do want a snowstorm…just don’t think it’s physically possible in our area without a more active southern stream.

You really need to be outside of 495 and north of I-84 to get higher than 50/50 chances for White Christmas climatologically in SNE. ORH was around 60-65%. Obviously recent years have been bad. I think last year in 2024 is the only White Xmas in the 2020s. For ORH, then you have: 2019, 2017, 2013, 2012, 2010, 2009, 2008, 2007, 2005, 2002, 2000. You could maybe count 2020 on a technicality (the snow wasn’t 100% wiped out by 12z which is the measurement time but certainly by 18z it was) So we’re sitting at about 50% since 2000.

From what I can gather from CAPE and Psu's posts...for this particular kind of setups 60 hours is far away. Best not to get any hopes up on anything given the balancing act going on. I'm counting it as partial fantasy until we get to at least Saturday.

I couldn't tell you why I think that's unusual, except in looking at these sorts of images over the past few years, that looks odd.

I’ll take .25” of liquid, fluff it up and give me 4”…that’d be fun.

That is a very unusual water vapor image IMO:

Moving to SW VA is looking like a forward-thinking, winning decision.

I know but with such a narrow band of precipitation, still enough time to shift. someone into misery or into snow heaven.

This is the 80’s to a frieken T! Something would always go wrong, and sabotage a good system, and now we are right back to it again.