All Activity

We have a get together at Hopkins Farm in Harford early afternoon, seems like it should be just scattered light stuff by then? Hoping to get lucky despite needing the rain. Sent from my SM-S938U using Tapatalk

Big warming north of Hawaii and with the +AMO off the East Coast are associated with record 100°+ heat being forecast in the East to start July. This is a classic -PDO La Niña look. So while the daily PDO is closer to neutral than at this time last year, the atmospheric 500 mb pattern is solidly La Niña -PDO over North America.

.59" 1-3 am. 12 reports in Augusta range from 0.00 to 1.00".

PDO still drifting higher regardless and contrary to last year's drop at this point.

Just put my T in CoCoRaHS for the overnight .5 -.75” that was expected 24 hours ago. The participation trophy is that I am getting recordable rains now from a passing shower.

The tomato plants are on the edge of being too wet. I didn't give them too much water when I was irrigating.

Happy Birthday, Mappy!

We knew back in May when NJ hit 100° that we were on a much warmer summer super El Niño track than what we have seen before. The floor now looks like 102°-104° at the usual warm spots as the GFS and CMC have. The Euro is really going bonkers over 105°+. This is about as warm as we have seen all 3 major models go within a 7 day forecast.

Hopefully not your tomatoes. The radar is actually starting to fill in and develop some taller echoes at the moment. Hopefully we can get some of those into our area today.

It's the same game for the past 3 years. We're not getting anything besides a few sprinkles today. The only story in town is the extreme heatwave and the drought.

Happy birthday, @mappy!!! Have a fantastic day!

Someone cancelled summer last week . Now who was it ?

Yes I agree while some of us had good rains this week (i had 1.37 this week) others missed out and are very dry, I started irrigating, pumping water out of the creek last Friday for our garden on a sprinkler system (more like a truck patch). Now that I got 1.37 rain this week and irrigating, my garden is actually too wet now at places.

I heard the rain on my roof for 15 seconds!

Just missed some decent rain in NE CT last night, up to 2” in some areas.

All guidance looks smoother and less perturbed... fully committed to a signal almost 2 weeks in the making. Cleanest 500mb ridge cinema yet, one that's also 3 to 5 dm larger in both the x-y plain, and z coordinate integrals in the objective charts. Nice dome, because by geometric definition, that's exactly what a fuckin ridge is - unless you're on the spectrum. Now we can rely on it for communication and clarity, and since 500 mb is the only metric that really counts, there's no cause or reason not to hype the hell out of this sucker weee

Light showers, need every drop before the upcoming heatwave.... .10 so far today.

And you’re calling a game at the first inning…

I think that is true for this winter…not the last two. Those were pretty strong analog years. But analogs for sure do not decide what comes next. We can agree on that. However, long wave pattern recognition during some weather cycles is not overly difficult. In fact, it might more accurate than d10-15 forecasts. I mean warm with a moderate to strong ENSO cycle. That might be different in middle and west TN. E TN often just watches storm tracks with this va cold front watching. For the past two winters, I felt pretty good about seasonal ideas. This one is tricky. But when in doubt, I go with ENSO. That says AN temps for DJF but with MJO cycles into colder phases at times. Storm track is coastal plain at times.

I started a thread for a few sprinkles lol.

He should vacation down here for those stretches lol It's not really the same feel 1000 ft asl

Congrats Kevin There will be no way to miss that furnace later this coming week Wow does that look ugly Can only hope Canada continues to step in and cool us afterwards.

Let’s Hundo next week.

At least we can dissect the fail in @JenkinsJinkies next “What Went Wrong” thread.