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It's about as potential saturated as Earth can really produce. It's ironic that the model so cleverly devises mean to maintain gas and match at such close proximity, yet nary the twain shall meet? We'll see about that... I dunno - I was talking to Das the other night, who nicely described the setting as "there should be storm right there". Well, we're seeing them attempted...This runs back to 01/02 after losing it last run(s). Go back yet a run before those, and there it is again. The other guidance have been more and less guilty of the same frets and starts. The consistent ...yet.

It has it breaking down quicker tomorrow. Asheville switches over earlier to rain

What i sent to friends just now FWIW Final Columbia area forecast. 5-9” of snow, 1-3” of sleet, light freezing rain or drizzle at the end. Highly recommend shoveling first around 9-10am tomorrow so the second round is manageable. It’s going to compact down into a ~7” deep glacier. For Harford County I said 6-10” snow and 1-2” sleet

Where are you looking at? Tennessee? .

Justin Burk is calling 6-10" .25" sleet

I'm expecting 3-6" snow, 1-3" sleet, .10" freezing rain DCA.

What a way to end that 6" storm streak. Ka-boom!!

I haven't been looking quite as much at this thread, obviously, with the upcoming event taking most of my focus. But overall I like the signal as we approach the end of January and first week of February. And actually that signal was appearing around that time for awhile now. I gave a very cursory glance at the GFS surface, and caveats aside about a deterministic run way out in time, but damn it looks to unload another 1050 high into the US near the end of its run!

Spot-on. WX/PT

Sleet in sweetwater 30F. .

Flurries here now

Models look to be targeting the east end of the metro for the worst of the ice. That is .50-.75" of FRAM accretion in the blue. Matches up with other models.

Nam vs radar 1 pm guessing NAM is too far north with mix by about 20 miles or so

Very close to better. Euro AI better, most short range keep it snow longer or entirely. I think small changes are possible that can make a big diff in totals. .

Point and click on NOAA has lowered our ice totals from .5-.9 to .3-.7. Still not good. Hearing around here that it's coming in later/drier? In Rabun County. Temp is been steady at 40° since yesterday. Slight breeze now and then.

Euro is fine. Not worried about rain on Long Island lol

Well, it WILL take a bit to get the moisture down to the ground layer. It is pretty dry in the lower column.

Updated. Mets playing catchup

Went way down here, thankfully!

Light snow has been consistent in Bentonville yet the radar shows nothing. Not sure if that’s a sign of the atmosphere squeezing out any moisture because it’s so cold or if lift is increasing quickly.

The cold air is pretty locked in currently looking at all the obs around here.

Nice 6-10. Thats what we should expect.

You and AMZ are probably in the best spot in the forum for an all winter weather event.

Well we hit our forecast high 21F/-8 dew point

17 here