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York and Lancaster counties are ALWAYS the southern edge…ALWAYS! Like what even is that? GFS has 6 inches here and the NAM has barely an inch lol

36° w/ lots of sunshine currently. I do think Orange goes to a warning for 4-8". WWA for Rockland & W Passaic for 2-4". Once you cross the Hudson south of the Putnam/Westcher border is prob primarily a rain event with some snow to start. 84 is the new "NW of 287" line

Okay, this one you'll have to guess based off the output. (for some reason I can't zoom in onto the Mid-Atlantic with this model)

I'll take "More Shitty Models" for $1,000 Alex.

There is going to be about a 15 mile separation of people with 1"-2" and someone with 6" it appears Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

RRFS for what it's worth... can anybody tell me where it comes from?

Some of these suppressed systems in the medium range...I would not be surprised to see those trend to snow in our area. Nice looking pattern with ample cold in the Ohio Valley. Also, notice how this time frame has trended from a SER to a VERY cold time frame just to our north.

Attention cliff jumpers: the annual panic room is now open.

I think we will get something similar. However we used up 1 above average snowfall winter on 2020/2021 now we only have 4 left lol.

Some decent trends for light snow in your back yard at 12z.

I would wager that you have decent odds at getting your covering and maybe even around 0.5" or so. I think some of the guidance is too aggressive with warming sfc temperatures so quickly. I understand too its the temperatures aloft which are a concern too but I think they will still be cold enough initially to support snow. But at the surface, dewpoints will still be into the upper 20's and probably some room to wet bulb at the initial onset of precipitation which should help to keep temperatures just cold enough.

Models all seem to be in agreement on a 3-6" storm on Wed for the metro area. Let's see how we can screw this one up.

Yeah, man. It was ice skating will jogging this morning. The frost was like black ice in shady areas.

Had mostly light SN, 1.1" and 0.07" LE, followed by 4 hours of light RA. Total precip of 0.12" was 3rd from lowest of 65 cocorahs reports when I looked at 9:30. November numbers Avg max: 39.7 -2.6 Highest: 51, 8th Avg min: 25.6 +0.9 Lowest: 14, 20th Mean: 32.7 -0.8 Precip: 2.35" -1.80" Wettest: 0.44", 10th Snow: 3.7" -1.2" Greatest: 2.4", 16th November 2025 was characterized by a lack of extremes (unless the modest 0.55" for wettest day was 'extreme'). Daily departures got no greater than 7.2° AN or 7.3° BN and only 7 days had 5° AN/BN.

If we have to replicate that period, could we include a 1978 and 1996 in the mix?

After tomorrow..looks like everything is put through the confluence shredder through early next week? maybe some flurries

So we should expect the models to be getting colder?. For some reason the Ak vortex is still there plus the EPS this morning did not look that cold.

Getting to the point that even 18 hours out now draws wildly varying and changing presentation outlooks

I think we are cooked down here....I'm worried we won't even get on the board here, especially at my lower elevation.

Yeah, You want to be NW of that.

Big flag for me is that not only do no other models show this, the HDRPS (highest res Canadian) shows nothing like this minus for the mountains. Given that model is the Canadian member id think has the best shot at this… I’m out

Lol not just a total wind reversal and major SSWE but an SPV split by Christmas week. That Moregarbage prediction was one for the ages lol

I dunno man CT Mets are pushing the snow wayyyy NW

well heh, not to be a dink but this thing isn't likely to be more than manageable in my eyes, and never was. middling middling middling. it's moving too fast. barely below 995 ... all of it. but i get it that 4" of paste can bring down power lines but that's like climo hassle level stuff

You would probably be better off there if the slp wasn't slipping off to the ENE east of NS, At others expense, We would need a track into the GOM to get precip back into the mountains, This one is basically going to be foothills to the coast system.