All Activity
- Past hour
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Radar not very promising despite the warning for northern Middlesex County.
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Close strike -
.11" from that one. Tried its best to split right around me, but still got grazed.
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Raining again. Off to a decent start here. -
That does have a bit of a llvl meso on it...relatively weak but worth watching -
At the base of wachusett lots of rain and some good gust
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HRRR looks very dry outside of NW NJ
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2026 Mid-Atlantic Severe Storm General Discussion
SolidIcewx replied to Kmlwx's topic in Mid Atlantic
Mesoscale Discussion 1783 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0104 PM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026 Areas affected...portions of West Virginia...northern/central Virginia...and southern Delaware Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely Valid 281804Z - 282000Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Severe potential to increase through the afternoon. Damaging wind, large hail, and tornadoes will be possible. DISCUSSION...Ahead of an approaching cold front across West Virginia, mostly sunny skies across portions of northern/central Virginia has allowed for temperatures to rise into the low to mid 80s. Steepening low-level lapse rates and increasing MLCAPE are noted across the region as a result. Strong mid-level flow is supporting deep layer shear around 40-50 kts. Flow is generally perpendicular to the front, which may support a mix of clusters and supercell structures. Steepening low-level lapse rates will support potential for downward momentum transfer and damaging wind. With any supercell structures that can maintain, large hail and perhaps a tornado will be possible. More modest low-level shear may somewhat limit the tornado potential initially, though the low-level jet may increase into the late afternoon. A watch will be needed soon to cover this potential. -
I agree , the southern portion of the line isn’t expanding much and will probably miss NYC.
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Cell has a TVS on it on Radarscope now. -
The thunder from that storm NW of Worcester has some of the most rollingest rolling thunder I've heard in awhile. I could hear a slow motion crackle going from south to north like it was on slow mo.
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Sun finally out here in Suffolk county, hopefully can fuel a good storm or two this evening.
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This always looked to me like the max would be near Passaic/Bergen/Rockland Counties and I still feel that way.
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You love speaking in absolutes lol
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Eastern part of that line in CNJ may clip me or just miss me to the west here in Morristown.
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I think our chance here is largely with whatever coastal storm develops. For today I agree the vast majority will be for NJ and Hudson Valley. Some of the modeling did get wetter east of the city today so we have to wait and see. But I’m not too optimistic.
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I think relative to what models showed yesterday this is more W-NW overall. I think this initial around stays mostly Newark west now, its the activity post 22Z that may be more of a factor to the east.
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Heneedshail -
It’s the same people that call bust before an event even starts every time. They over analyze the radar instead of just letting things play out.
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Effin raining pretty good here.
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Somers had 1.7” ish based on stations . Someone in that general area that got trained had to be over 2” 0.00 here sun in and out now -
Tornado Warning NW NJ.
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Euro says goodbye to Western CT -
Agreed! Sometimes better to remain quiet and appear the fool than to speak and remove all doubt.
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Tornado warning for parts of SW Sussex County and Northern Warren County WWA Summary for Tornado Warning Issued by PHI
