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Isaiass to be

<Beavis-and-Butthead Voice> Heh, heh, heh! @ravensrule said "pro BONO!" Heh, heh, heh </Beavis-and-Butthead Voice>

So sorry to hear that Carver! I’ll be praying for you and your family!

The forecast track and storm motion keeps the center over relatively deep heat content. Obviously, shallow SSTs remain quite high and untapped due to limited frontal progression and miniscule TC activity so far this season. The system will not be a slow mover, so we must depend on the timing of development and changes in atmospheric conditions: How fast does the TC intensify versus how fast favorable atmospheric conditions deteriorate to hostile? The key limiting factors up to landfall are increasing mid-level shear and potential dry air encroachment to limit or weaken landfall intensity.

Dew is 33, gonna be chilly and frosty tonight

Firmly in the cone of uncertainty over here.

Well that has 5 plus days to trend too…so I think the handwriting is on the wall. The tenor is it likes to rain this spring and summer..and now fall.

And I think that will only increase as we start to close in.

Working for them thus far

Fire on the Mountain

It’s supposed to pass right over the loop current. And the tail end of a trough is often quite favorable. There’s a lot of moving pieces but a hurricane landfall looks plausible at the moment.

82 today. First 80 since September 11.

Nice brisk evening. Gonna be frosty in the AM. Mid 30s here.

Beautiful sunset in progress

Divorce is always an option. I know a good attorney if you need one. Plus @mitchnick would probably do it pro bono for you.

Having a closed surface circulation and its approximate location should give the TC models a better handle on environmental interaction. We'll have to see if there is RI potential prior to conditions becoming less favorable. I suppose there does exist the possibility of rapid intensification occurring, leading to some panic, only for the TC to rapidly weaken prior to landfall. It is an annoying forecast in that regard and subject to big changes quickly. It's tough to approximate exactly when strong mid-level shear will impede or disrupt a core, especially if the system intensifies faster than forecast. But no TC is going to be immune to 30+ kts of shear prior to landfall. Yet, before that shear escalates, the system will have very strong ventilation. Therefore, the ceiling is high through the first 72 hours. How close does the core get to the coast prior to shear obliterating it? Not like this would be the first time we've been psyched out by a hurricane in the GOM, of course.

Sorry for the loss, it's hard watching our parents get old and pass away. Once they do, it's a short trip til we get there too.

Pretty likely Lamar misses the Atlanta game. Even if its precautionary. Not a disaster if they lose, as there are 2 division games that follow as well as in-conference games after that. Losing to an NFC team with no Lamar and having him back a week later(healthy) is an easy tradeoff. And they could still win this week with a solid game plan in place for Snoop that is run heavy- if the OL can get it's shit together. Falcons are so explosive right now the way to beat them is to eat clock and score a few times, keep their offense off the field, and our mediocre defense too lol.

Now that we do have a well defined center and recon data that will be incorporated into the models, we should hopefully start to see gradual consensus on the eventual track and intensity. I'm still a touch skeptical, but far less so than yesterday given how much more compact this tends to be. These BoC systems can really produce. Just goes to show how even in an otherwise historically inactive season things can change quickly.