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My 3rd string QB had to start the game...

'Surprised to see SPC already mentioning the wintry thunder/convective potential in their current D3 outlook this morning. Which will only jump up the icing accumulation in ETX.

Great post! Can see that 50/50 is trying to work it's magic here. Any amount helps to lock things in.

@MillvilleWx conveyed this last night.

You are reflecting the trap in snowfall forecasting. if a meteorologist forecasts 6 to 12 inches people immediately say there’s gonna be a foot of snow. One to 2 feet reflects the reality of the models as Jeff said earlier, which is regionwide 12+. It would not be surprising that there would be lollies 2 feet. Yes it’s aggressive three days out, but it lets people know this is gonna be an exceptional storm. Just the cold itself is gonna make it exceptional beyond heavy snow.

I can’t wait for BOX to delete his total from the PNS

SREF mean is almost 11-12 inches at 10 to 1.

Pretty much.

Kudos to WFMY 2 in the Triad. They’ve said all along that all they know is there’s a lot of moisture and it will be cold. And that’s it. And that will end up being correct most likely. Anyone who was saying anything else definitely got out over their skies on this one

That seems reasonable. Doesn’t CHO usually CAD better than the metro area?

Yup. This is why my 2018 measurement got tossed. My new practice in these events is to report storm snowfall and depth.

Pretty much. After that it's a timing thing, if the phase out west comes together quickly, heights will quickly rise. Do many variables here, it's simultaneously frustrating and fascinating to track.

We can't make fun of the NAM then post the 87 HR SREFs. Both our terrible and outside there "usefull range". Both the 12k and 3k have a small but noticeable cold push over the east through 36. Thats all I am looking for.

Mike Margavage

Crazy how we went from a super suppressed drawn out storm to a miller B plowing right up the apps in a matter of 24 hours. Also, GFS barely gets us (RDU) above freezing for the foreseeable future. Will be interesting to see how that plays out based on if we get IP or ZR

SIAP...

Here it is...

Ray 27” 1717 20”

I was wondering what my total would’ve been the other day, because I didn’t clear. I just stuck my ruler in in the morning. Wonder if I would’ve been over 7 inches. Wet snow to start then more fluffy.

NWS STL hedging quite a bit

That’s about as far I will consider trusting on that model….36 hours

100%- count me in lol In light of this total clusterf$%k, they need to move their prediction scope backwards to 72 hrs max on just about all of these models ouside of a very basic probabilistic outcome (with a wide safety net) until they ingest metadata with a closer linkage to an actual event. The flight into the Baja low last night confirms this Some of the models I have built are for US-based equity futures and futures options (SPX/NDX/RUT)- if I were to have to made this magnitude of an error, someone(plural) big goes bankrupt, especially since it involves delta hedging by prime dealers (market makers). I know I sound like a broken record about incorporating metadata, but my models are comprised of approximately 60-70% (or more) of a combination of real-time/near-term. Market makers have to stay delta neutral (first order Greek) at all times, and also account for the four other second-order Greeks in Black-Scholes; plus inventory (sold calls/puts, often in complex spreads) has to be zeroed out constantly. And a lot of the flow is HFT (high-frequency algos)....and my models have to predict this 2 to 3 days in advance. Why not more? Because the variance/covariance and correlations completely lose any accuracy without recent metadata- they go from a very robust model to stick-thin with no predictive power within the span of two trading days ....the phrase "you can't bring a knife to a gun fight" comes to mind

Always appreciate your detailed posts. I am obviously someone who is guilty of posting Kuchara at times , but I certainly don't ever expect those totals that any model puts out. Maybe RD9108 does.. Just kidding bud.. It helps me put together a range. As ROTT said, it is fun. That is what following this weather is all about for me. Enjoy any snow we get.

It’s been several years so I’m not sure if this is still true but I know at one point t the UK ensembles were counting ice as snow which inflated their output. That kinda looks like it still does.

Seems a little odd to have lower totals west of dc. Dulles will do better than college park in this type of setup.