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Ouch. Tomorrow night is really going to rip some winds through here. This is from the euro. 925mb plus a sounding from the same time. I usually feel like winds are whatever, but this time it looks kind of legit. Nam just spit out something similar too.

Thank you! I had a brain malfunction! I’ll edit my original post to point to the error and correction of dates. I apologize for my mistake. The new map for Oct 5-11 has a slightly stronger cold signal than yesterday’s: @mitchnick

Tunnels to towers 5k walk/ run is still going on Sunday. I will be participating in it. Going to be interesting weather wise.

We have a lot of movement below the belt

WHAT...For the High Surf Advisory, large breaking waves of 9 to 15 feet in the surf zone. For the High Rip Current Risk, dangerous rip currents. For the Coastal Flood Advisory, up to one half foot of inundation above ground level expected in vulnerable areas near the waterfront and shoreline. For the Coastal Flood Warning, one to two feet of inundation above ground level expected in vulnerable areas near the waterfront and shoreline.

Yeah just odd. LIke did they look at a bufkit sounding? lol This is what happens when you're tied to model blends and WPC grids.

NAM drops 3-5 inches of rain LI now

State of Emergency for NYC , Nassau, Westchester and Suffolk.

they've downplayed it the whole way--meanwhile the NAM drops 3-5 inches of rain on LI /S CT flood watch anyone?

Cookies?

Really bizarre behavior by them. No coastal flood watches yesterday either around here. Strange.

3K would make damage boy happy.. 50-60 gusts.. ?

Wouldn’t be surprised to see Long Island maybe even queens and Brooklyn get upped to high wind warning. Models seem to be increasing them sat night into Sunday

Convective models finally not treating this as tropical. AWT.

I think 60 is possible along the CT coast, with maybe a spot 65 in SE CT.

That cold map is for Oct 5-12.

3K much weaker and thus further north

surprised they didn't with the afternoon update.

Satellite already looks like a beast incoming.

they need to convert to a high wind warning there

Maybe gusts 60-65 on parts of Long Island later tomorrow on the 18z NAM.

Respectfully submitted

With Fernando waiting in the wings!

I’m not saying the Euro is necessarily going to be right. But I’m passing this along because it’s objectively determined and easily available to the wx community. So fwiw: The new Euro ensemble (12Z) maintains the 90-100% chance that the 0Z and 6Z had for a tropical storm to form from this: The run from just 24 hrs earlier for the same period had only just over 70% for the chance:

Best gusts yet, acorns flying into windows. Probably 40ish.