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I’ve heard some also — Brood XIV https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2025/04/24/cicadas-2025-brood-xiv-maryland-dc/?utm_campaign=wp_post_most&utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter&carta-url=https%3A%2F%2Fs2.washingtonpost.com%2Fcar-ln-tr%2F4242211%2F680bb3621e3c794918561e64%2F64fddbb854ee7d10a3e01f06%2F17%2F56%2F680bb3621e3c794918561e64 https://www.goodhousekeeping.com/life/a64795778/cicada-map/

Importance of the +PNA for coastal low tracks bluewave Sorry it's small, imagebb is down. Low's hug the coast in that pattern. CPC says it was +PNA, but the 500mb maps don't show that. We didn't have that piece in February. We had that piece in Feb 2016, and somewhat Feb 2014.

This is why our springs have gotten cooler (high temps) and a -nao has become prevalent in April and May while a +nao is prevalent in the winter now.

At least this will be gone before Memorial Day weekend. From the maps I've seen there may even be some sunshine tomorrow morning and the sun may come out again Friday afternoon.

Some big hail ,the Centerville cell

38.3 here last night. Probably not done with the 30s quite yet this spring but glad it didn't go much below that. Spent several weekends planting recently and it would suuuuuck having to redo that.

^I would say there was more +PNA, low pressure over the north Pacific in those two analogs. Feb 2014 looks like a pretty good N. Hemisphere 500mb match though. It takes about 6 days for a Pacific-PNA change to work its way to the SE ridge. We had a strong Aleutian High late Jan-early Feb. The south-based +NAO kept the SE ridge amped after that, without a major North Pacific trough present to cut it down. AO 50 degrees further north is not a big deal when there are strong anomalies closer, and the Pacific had a large part to do with the colder patterns in those 2 analogs.

But similar patterns with great -AO blocks over 90N didn’t have any issues producing KU snowstorms in February 2014 and January 2016. So we can’t blame the +NAO either since the vortex near Iceland was much stronger those two months than this February. It comes back to the overpowering Northern Stream of the Pacific Jet which was much weaker in February 2014 and January 2016.

It'll be interesting to see how your actual vs. forecast verifies. I bust low/high (sometimes significantly) depending on the setup. Radiational cooling nights I always bust low. Sunny/dry I always bust high. What's the elevation of your cabin?

Nice link! That -AO was completely over 90N, and the NAO was raging positive to the south of Greenland, putting a ridge over Europe and a SE ridge. I don't see that pattern as all that anomalous. When the AO first went negative, we had to have to some time to change the heavy Aleutian ridge that happened in Late January/early Feb. Remember how the Polar/mid-latitude Cell's work - a ridge centered over 90N puts a trough at 45N. And in the Atlantic at 45-50N was a massive low, since this one was closer it impacts us more. -5 AO's of the past had an arctic high pressure further south.

The big cutoff low which has become a familiar late May repeating pattern over the last 10 to 15 years.

Confirmed tornado moving through a very populated area near Jackson TN, though luckily it doesn't look particularly strong on radar.

Look like the event is trending drier for Wednesday into Thursday east of I-81?

We can’t blame the WPO for last winter since there was a decent -WPO interval during the Feb 1 to Feb 21 with a solid block in the Bering Sea.This also coincided with a -5 daily -AO which reliably produced KU snowstorms in the past. Very difficult to pull off with such a powerful Northern Stream of the Pacific Jet which gave us a potent Great Lakes cutter at the some time the -AO was down near -5. So another Southeast Ridge link up with Greenland to Iceland blocking. https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/monthly-report/synoptic/202502

We've really lost May as a summer month. Been replaced by April.

This sucks. https://www.wpri.com/news/local-news/south-county/fire-breaks-out-at-matunuck-oyster-bar/

Beautiful day in the Annapolis area to watch the Blue Angels!

Confirmed Tor headed towards maybe Duck River

Confirmed Tor headed towards maybe Duck River

Nothing stops lawn domination not even footwear!

If we could’ve gotten any of the colder periods this winter to match with decent moisture it would’ve been a 40-50” snow winter in NYC. Instead we had the roaring Pacific destructively interfere potential setups to death over and over, favor more garbage SWFEs and keep other storms suppressed that could form. I’m not as concerned about the rising average temps (although that’s of course hampering our making any marginal temp setup work) as getting the Pacific to slow down and allow amplified setups in a good location for B/M tracks. We can get absolutely blitzed by a storm or two and end up well above average like in 15-16 despite near record warmth overall. Feb 2016 was also an underrated snowy month around NYC and east.

counterpoint: send 'em up

Gray skies, sweater weather and fall feels in late may. No complaints here!

All good points. There is way, WAY too much focusing by some on how much a temp has risen at any given location than there is to the overall pattern. The snow season spans a minimum of half the year for most northern locations, same as it always has. The key is the pattern, the indices, the storm tracks, the available moisture. Its actually gotten comical how some have tried to push the record snow from a decade ago as being in the far distant past or in a different era.

Stay downstate.