All Activity

I would think so as well. The base is very solid for it's depth.

Wagons south

The coldest low of the 1st third, if not the 1st half of December, look to be in the upper teens. Not much of a temperature spread there. Looking like a colder version of December 2014.

step in the correct driection

Steady south trend

Yup has rain/snow line flash collapse SE look to it. … probably in the process of correcting it’s native NW bias

What is the point of your posts? Just trying to outdo snowman19? Stop trying it can't be done.

0z 12km is torched. very nice for CNE though

Of course official NWS measurements are never made on concrete or driveways. A good mailbox or wood deck can work quite well for snow measuring if you don't have a trusty snowboard like some of us weather weenies employ!! LOL!!

Would be yeah

WB 3K NAM is cooler this run, but still just rain east of the mountains. Comparing 925 and 850 to 18Z.

Ok

NAM is juicy.

Nice map IMHO!! As you mention I suspect an adjustment will be needed tomorrow...a nice 50 mile NW in snow accumulations may well hit the mark! Thanks!!

Our first call map. Don't really think it changes much but we'll see.

Yeah. We've been bleeding the wrong way all day. Going to be close all the way to the M/D line it seems.

Pasty?

NAM takes rays grid down. Let’s have no power with 4 kids.

Both NAMs continue to hate this system and insist we torch at 850

No surprise Nam has cooled

Collapsing up to game time. Hope I hang on for my little accumulation.

I don't know if others feel this way, but I get really sick of the PSL interface and just making one map at a time. So I made some code that you can put into google colab. It allows you to set up your parameters via function arguments and you can select a range of years and get individual plots for all those years. It lets you do composite plots too but what I really had in mind was if you wanted to say, look at 50 hPa heights for December for the last 50 years. You can do it quickly. It will just get you 50 maps in like 45 seconds. It's just for Anomaly plots. I can't guarantee it won't break. But it seemed to work for what I tested. Anyway, I know a lot of you make these plots so maybe this helps somebody. There are some commented out examples at the bottom. psl_code.txt With that said, the reason why I made that is I wanted to look at the polar vortex position in relation to the winter. I see two current paths in model guidance. The AIFS camp that wants to keep the PV over Canada and the GEFS camp that moves it further east. Here are some matches I found. With that said, the group I grabbed for 50 hPa look colder than current guidance for mid month. So maybe my composite wasn't so great or maybe it'll trend colder at some point. Not sure. Looking ahead, the central Canada centered PV case rolls forward to a cold eastern half of the country in Jan-Feb. Not surprising given the analog years I found. It's similar in the PV-east case, but January is warmer. Maybe this is all garbage. But the thing that has caught my attention is the PV being displaced south over Canada. It just makes the cold more available and its probably why so many of the similar PV years were cold. I am not sure I buy it being as cold as these show to be honest and maybe by late December it'll be different enough that this analysis didn't mean anything. Time will tell of course.

Gotta think a lot of the bigger terrain available off 242 might be in play by now…and I’m not talking about The Dip. @bwt3650 you hearing any rumors? Hypothetically of course

but I thought..