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Arnab looks quite good as it approaches land. I bet it is 125-130 kt given it pinhole eye and small size (115 kt at 06z). One things that has bugged me w/ JTWC wind fcst once a system is inland. Look at the 28/06z fcst position on the graphic attached. It is a good 30 nm inland by that point, and still 100 kt sustained? That is unrealistic given how coefficient of friction over land is much higher over than water, so winds drop very quickly. And the TC will be quickly weakening at the same time. And still 65 kt sustained 12 hr later farther inland? No way. Now, for this two fcst positions, 100 kt and 65 kt *gusts* at these times are reasonable, but that's a huge difference in sensible wx than these sustained values! Look at the HAFS-A fcst for landfall and when it is just inland. The model shows how big the effects of land friction are!

With all the Lamar critics in the media and elsewhere, you think it was better to have him considered to be day-to-day for 3 effing weeks? What kind of bullshit is that? If the diagnosis is a high ankle sprain, then the team needs to report it as such. Instead it was left to speculation by the insiders and others about the extent of the injury, which just feeds the perception that he won't play with a minor injury/unless he is 100%.

I guess no, temp here is 46F, almost 20 degrees warmer than the last few days

There is a possibility that Lamar may not have wanted to put it out there either. Notice how the national media can never get many details when he's out. But regardless of the reason...how do you go from this to "Lamar and the Ravens should part ways"? That's LaConfora mania stuff right there, lol What kind of dangerous game? What kind of bad situation? I mean Lamar could've revealed the injury at any time. Coulda been his choice for all we know (although I'd love for somebody to ask him why he didn't say anything earlier). To me this was more gamesmanship than anything else. They aren't betraying Lamar or smearing him on purpose, or something damaging to the relationship. I doubt that...and once he (most likely) extends, this will all be moot and he'll be here.

Hailstone record CT 7/4/26 @weatherwiz PT? https://x.com/ryanhanrahan/status/2110020388004462779 One thing though, it is not a complete even radius circular stone, like many giant hailstones are. Looks more a fused conglomerate rather than a mass that goes up and down in the supercooled layer getting more even layer coating each time. SCEC PDF report attached. It also noted the baseball hail event from 6/20/1995 from supercells dropping from the due N. Radar attached. Was @weatherwiz aware of this event? I bet @CoastalWx was not! The anvil canopy spread NE from this storm w/ CBMAM over BOS area. 20261013-Connecticut-Hailstone.pdf

You obviously don't know what the average recovery time for a high ankle sprain is, then. 4-6 weeks. So somehow, in a non-playoff situation, Lamar was supposed to come back the next week or two and play on it hobbling around not able to plant or throw? With 12 games to go and no bye week until December? Bruh...no QB is gonna do that. No player is doing that period--not with that kind of sprain. I'm sorry but these arguments about this particular injury are straight up ignorant now that we know what kind of sprain it is. Call him injury prone I get, because that can certainly be a legit discussion. But arguing that he play on a high-ankle sprain for weeks just because Mahomes somehow did it for a couple games? (And again him doing that was an extreme outlier to the norm) Illogical and unrealistic argument.

Was tonight supposed to be rad cooling or CAA? BDL still 53, doesnt seem like they'll come close to the forecast low of 41.

Mike Masco

We haven't had an epic heat event yet (its all smoothed out currently) from all this here locally but I suspect your right that it would be hard for something crazy not to air itself during this historic period. I wouldn't use March 2012 for any future prediction; its so unfathomable that even during this setup such extremes are highly unlikely. I'm thinking more like the magnitude of the heat Europe experienced in June and parts of July which was going toe to toe with 2003's event in various metrics. I'm personally hoping for 20C IMBY on 'mas day so I can eat my figgy puddin' in the backyard (no rain as a bonus). The tenacity of this pattern is getting insane. Those mega highs just keep spawning in this part of the continent. I thought for sure there would be a flip for all this gorgeous wx with those weeks during 2nd half of Sep and this very dry Oct with constant clarity - much to my delight instead we get tiny blips then back to blue skies for days. Then the models showing it just going on into Nov when I was sure it was ending .

March 2012 or the peak event of it accelerated my passion for meteorology. It was also the first time I was really excited witnessing a weather feature that wasn't a type of cyclone (it was an anti-cyclone! ...maybe?). The ask if it was a before/after flip is intriguing: I do sort of think before and after since it mucked up what we thought was possible in climo regimes. I started thinking what if the whole script had flipped where we get acceleration in unexpected ways of trends in motion.

I’m not going to lie, I’m a little jealous. Have a blast, and bring back some snow with you.

Lamar is injury prone and he ALWAYS chokes in the playoffs, not exactly a great combination. I can guarantee you Mahomes or Allen would be playing with this sprained ankle. He is like Charmin. This is the NFL, not tiddlywinks.

Every even year this decade (2020, 2022, and 2024) has had record warmth in the early part of November. It looks like the trend will continue this year.

Good example here on the AI of how forcing can pull the trough west from time to time. MJO exits the IO and MC where it is completely suppressed, then activates forcing over the dateline and slowly pulls east (along with the trough).