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Got a nice 22 degree halo right now

I need to drive from Charlotte NC to Miami and realize that is NOT happening Saturday but do you guys think I will be much better on Sunday or should I just do the drive on Monday instead ? Thanks for any input

Red sky in the morning, sailors warning.

free libertybell

GDM models absolutely destroyed the physics based models on this storm. How those euro and GFS runs where they had a weak TS still sitting off the Yucatán at this timeframe looking now?

They were holding off for another cycle of guidance to address the potential of a Flood Watch. They started that it was too early to address the wind threat with a Wind Advisory in their morning disco. Always too conservative in my opinion, but it is what it is.

This looks like the type of scenario I can see playing out this winter. A Close race between a cold shot and a big storm.

Idalia should have still been retired. Lesser storms have been retired. Not having a retired storm for 2023 feels wrong. That was probably the most active strong el nino season ever. My guess is that they are probably running out of I names, and they probably won't retire one unless they absolutely have to. Then again, Emily not getting retired after 2005 shows how inconsistent name retirement is.

Cross posting here from the Mid-Atl subform. Crazy the scale of this storm with the jet streak induced diffluence aloft.

I have noticed, too, that GSP never uses the Hazardous Weather outlook. If this doesn't warrant a watch, you would think that they would at least issue a Hazardous Weather outlook. Other forecast offices have.

It might be earlier than that. Keeps bumping up landfall time each run. We’re not working with a ton of time for this to fall apart and it doesn’t matter when the center crosses because that eyewall is obviously out ahead of it. Dangerous situation saw they increased max surge from 7 to 9 feet, not insignificant at all especially with the population center this is plowing into

Managed to get my (now major) hurricane sunrise this morning! Some low clouds blocked it a bit, but still well worth the early morning.

First light

Google DM brings this in around 7 to 8PM. Majority of the models have the pressure bottoming out around 1PM. That give us about a 6 hour window to weaken before landfall. Not much time there to work with at all. Better hope it doesn't strengthen much more this Morning.

BTW, has anybody checked on GSP? They have yet to issue a single watch or advisory for this. Getting on my nerves having counties in my area of Georgia under a Flood/High Wind Watch right next door under FFC but nothing at all from GSP.

I feel like that guy who does those Dos Equis commercials. ISSY once took on 60kt. shear and became a CAT3. When your wrong, your wrong and admit it. Surprised but not shocked. "Stay thirsty my friends." LOL

Recon is heading in for another pass.

65 to 80 mph gusts as far inland as la grange GA???? That definitely seems overdone.

Models accurately forecasted the 10-15 mb drop as it traversed the loop current eddy overnight.

Are there so few names that it is necessary to re-use Isaias when it was just used in 2020? Especially when it was a noteworthy storm which made landfall. Seems dumb. Anytime anyone talks about Isaias in the future it'll always be followed by "wait, the one in 2020 or the one in 2026?"

Also seeing it run east of the forecast track a bit. Destin landfall seems likely at this point. HRRR drops the hammer with rain on the escarpment tomorrow night.

Yes, I though this window was going to close about 12 hrs early than it is. Nice from a met standpoint, not so nice for the Gulf coast.

Isaias is now a major. Bathtub doing bathtub things.

GFS says no….10/25 it has a monster trough and storm on the coast. Yup…it’s a junk model now, and way out in time, but it’s no different than saying what you’re saying. And why would we not want mild and comfortable in mid October? It’s exactly what we are supposed to have. Most of us have already had our first frost, and frozen vehicle morning just two days ago. We are stepping down nicely.