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Was already posted!

Anne Arundel Co is dismissing 2 hours early tmrw.

Very similar here in North Ridge in Alexandria.

I was just playing around with the archived radar data that’s on RadarScope Pro the other day. Here’s that tornado, that’s a pretty pronounced velocity couplet for 1998 NEXRAD data. It was roughly reading 110-115mph gate to gate on the data.

The storm currently bringing blizzard conditions to parts of the Upper Midwest will bring a soaking rain to the New York City region tonight and tomorrow. A general 0.50"-1.50" rainfall with locally higher amounts is likely. Strong thunderstorms are possible in parts of the area. The rain could end as flurries or a period of wet snow in some of the distant northern and western suburbs. Following storm, a shot of much cooler air could arrive on Tuesday. Lows in New York City could fall to the middle and upper 20s with highs in the upper 30s and lower 40s on Tuesday and Wednesday However, with the AO likely to remain generally positive through around March 20th, the cool period likely won't be as prolonged as had been the case during this past winter's cold regimes. Temperatures should return to the middle and upper 40s by Thursday and the 50s to end the week. Uncertainty about the closing 7-10 days of March has increased. The major weather story this week will be the super March heatwave that will develop in much of the western U.S. March monthly records are likely to be smashed in numerous cities, including Albuquerque, Flagstaff, Fresno, Las Vegas, Palm Springs, Phoenix, Reno, Salt Lake City, and Yuma. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.9°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.1°C for the week centered around March 4. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.80°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.23°C. Neutral ENSO conditions have now developed. Neutral ENSO conditions will continue through at least mid-spring. The SOI was -9.19 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.602 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 70% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March (1991-2020 normal). March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 44.5° (1.7° above normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 2.0° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

Just pondering the definitions and inner workings of SPC outlooks....I try not to be that person who continuously "forecasts the forecast" - but I could see SPC going to 75% wind but perhaps holding to CIG1. My reasoning is that the SPC outlooks are "within 25 miles of a point" - I don't think you're going to see much argument from most folks with setting that probability to 75% if severe criteria is 58mph. I'm less certain of TOR percentages - I am not sure that will go any higher than 15% unless there is a game time identification of a more robust corridor of tornado risk. Upping TOR percentages is harder because of the more isolated nature of that type of severe. If there truly is a QLCS - even if it only has sporadic swaths of 58mph winds in it - in a major metro corridor like I-95 - you're going to probably verify on damage reports pretty easily on the wind category. Anyway - I'm just rambling - and I do think we stick to a moderate - but I could see them tickling the high risk even more by bumping to 75%. They can go to 75% and still have this be a moderate risk.

My house is surrounded by monster trees. We can go to the basement during the line if it looks really bad.

Well, you'll have no idea if you dropped Pivotal, lol (too early)...

Lots of BLDU obs out there at the manned ASOS sites. Love to see it.

this month we've had snow soon after 80 degrees, so maybe we can also get snow soon after a tornado, snownado?

What about 1986 and 2009? (I'm not including 1987, because that el nino was already in progress, and it had dissipated already by the end of winter 1988... giving a jump start on the very strong 1988-89 la nina).

Yeah, feel the big tree concern. I am in the DC condo situation so I’m unconcerned, but family is well in the forests of Arlington. Big tree took down the neighbor’s roof during the derecho. We get ours inspected every year since that but it always scared me during thunderstorm season.

Good to hear! We're in the foothills not too far from you as the crow flies. We've picked up some snow as well this month. Unfortunately every bit of moisture we get is quickly sucked up by the un-ending wind. I've lost track of the severe wind events we've had this past fall/winter; we've had our power knocked out 4 or 5 times.

Perhaps I am wrong, but based on experience I tend to be highly skeptical of these forecasts when there is an easterly flow off the very cold Atlantic ocean. That is a stable air flow in March. The forecasts stubbornly have rain tonight. It likely will not happen until the flow is southerly (later in the am.) Hopefully the action heats in the afternoon, but I have a hard time believing we have anything beyond mist until then.

I’m definitely disappointed we missed out on big dog numbers. It looks like 10-14” totals in the southern burbs a few miles south of the airport, but this has still been a quality storm. Snowing all day and top tier time outside with the kids.

This is nuts

You’ve inspired me. I think we will do Panera! Here’s a picture of the hundred plus foot trees around my house

tornadogenesis time for a new screen name

I’ve thought about telling my family to do something similar but will wait til the line actually forms. At least head to the Starbucks lol.

Won't see many ZFPs like these in our region Zone Forecast Product National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 415 PM EDT Sun Mar 15 2026 DCZ001-160000- District of Columbia- Including the city of Washington 415 PM EDT Sun Mar 15 2026 .REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...Mostly cloudy. Highs around 60. Southeast winds around 15 mph with gusts up to 30 mph. .TONIGHT...Showers in the evening, then showers likely with a slight chance of thunderstorms after midnight. Lows in the mid 50s. Southeast winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 30 mph. Chance of rain 90 percent. .MONDAY...Showers likely with a slight chance of thunderstorms in the morning, then showers with thunderstorms likely in the afternoon. Some thunderstorms may be severe with damaging winds and tornadoes in the afternoon. Highs in the lower 70s. South winds 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 35 mph. Chance of rain 90 percent. .MONDAY NIGHT...Rain showers with thunderstorms likely in the evening, then rain showers likely after midnight. Some thunderstorms may be severe with damaging winds and tornadoes. Much cooler with lows around 30. West winds 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 35 mph. Chance of rain near 100 percent. .TUESDAY...Mostly sunny. Much cooler with highs in the lower 40s. West winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph. .TUESDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 20s.

We live in the foothills west of Fort Collins and you can add about 5 mph to what Fort Collins had. It kinda tore up our trailer cover, that had previously survived fierce winds the past several years. Oh well the damage could have been worse - our house and trailer are still standing .

Agreed. Currently surrounded by 4 - 100 year old white oaks near the GW Parkway. Considering taking family to library for when the line passes. My wife thinks I’m overreacting.

The irony is that we could have a 20" pack in place on April 1st ...

Fake news.

I'd be having a mental breakdown. lol