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Wasn’t expecting the snow today. Small tiny flakes but pretty good intensity

So far with the 12Z Nam I like the trajectory of the precip inbound at 28hrs. HP in a slightly better position as well. Light returns trying to spill over the mountains. 5h also looks different in a good way as well to back up surface reflection.

It is interesting that the HRRR models 850 as the more aggressive warm nose. Guess that would be worse for FRZA because there is less time for it to refreeze? Probably also not worth overanalyzing.

yeah 287 all the way down into Middlesex County NJ

To me the biggest question of the storm is now QPF. Is this in the 0.75” range (CAMs) which would no doubt cause issues but not anything like some of the 1.5-2” outputs we’d been seeing on the globals. There is a huge gap between those sets of guidance and that will dictate whether this is a memorable ice storm or just a sloppy mixed bag with moderate amounts of each precip type

the show had been over up here, but surprised to see the gfs clean house to this degree.

Here are the latest 48-hour ensemble-based probabilities through 7 AM Monday (from NW to SE / Mercer County to Tucker County): 15":15-55% 12":50-75% (up from 30-70%) 8": 75-90% (up from 60-90%) 6": 85-95% (up from 80-95%) 4": 90-100% (up from 85-99%) This is from the discussion this morning. They do mention lower ratios as the warm air intrudes from south to north. Something to keep in mind, but definitely the reason for that sharp cut off on the 06z euro kuchera

Yeah, I know that the signal has been there, it’s just rich to see TT more interested in a fantasy event at this range than a big dog in his backyard.

Agree 8ish seems most likely. That can change though

I think that is closer to 287 but we’ll see.

I have a tankless heater but when I changed out my upright water heater to the tankless, I kept the old water heater and used it as a holding tank. So I pump hot water into the holding tank from my tankless water heaters, and when I need hot water, the circulating pump comes on and pumps the hot water out of the holding tanks. .

I like that call. I told family back home to expect around a foot, for the county I'd say 8-16" with the least amount near Kirkwood and highest amounts around Etown.

Compared to the same frame from 06z GFS, 12z HRRR appears to be better or similar

Been getting dumped on. 3” yesterday morning. Another 3” during the day. 5” overnight.

Yeah, got that. Was talking for my area and trying to avoid/time the switch

NAM coming in colder at the start

HRRR 12z compared to globals

I love how you always pop in before a sleet storm

1/23 12z NAM

How good is the HRRR precip type algorithm? Is it like the Euro with a lot of sleet depicted as freezing rain? Here it looks like the sleet zone is pretty narrow compared to other models. Do you think that is legit?

That’s what she said…

Thanks for your help!!

For areas getting sleet on that frame, the issue is below 700 mb.

Nam looks better. So far at least the high is more south and the cold air push is better also the precip shield is larger and heavier at least thru 30hrs

https://x.com/babowling12/status/2014492451986174233?s=46&t=LVg8BRWCh1zZb6F_t95EVg .