All Activity

Will they even measure?

I agree, with that STJ active we will have lots of chances bro. 1 or 2 are bound to hit for us!

FWIW GEFS cut back a touch from 6z. At this range I have noticed that ensembles movements do not really reflect in the next model run.

I wonder if NWS will change their forecast for tomorrow. As of now there is no mention of any precipitation.

Dryslotted.

The snow west of 95 back to the 15/81 folks tomorrow is mainly fronto forcing based; not all that much dissimilar to today: need good jet/vorticity for this. The coastal isn’t having much influence.

Just surpassed 4.5” just south of Blue Mountain Ski Resort. Did not expect an additional inch the past hour. Flake size has diminished and best returns moving east. Maybe can squeeze out another 0.25-0.5”

Surface temps are gonna be marginal. If precip comes down with intensity, temps will fall to 31-32. Otherwise it would be in the mid to upper 30s. The ratios are going to be shit, worse than 10-1.

wow moderate snow reported in the city and +SN at TEB, i expected it to be white rain there, or r/s

As always thanks for the PBP Randy!

The advertised pattern from January 25 to February 10 is why we like Ninos so much. It's super easy to score. The STJ is always active, so there are so many juiced up waves that can tap into cold air to score. Hopefully this 2-3 week stretch is a preview of 2026-27. I'm really excited.

29F with light snow at the moment measured 4”

My guess is they go advisory for most and maybe WSW for interior SE MA. Just a guess.

I'd rather ride the line with hope than have a full suppression. If that makes sense

i go out for a bit and come back, people are honking 5-6 inches...a few runs later, light snow or rain.....it's maddening so i'll check back later, being dragged to a movie i don't wanna see....family time. avatar. hopefully i can catch some zz's.

coming down pretty good here with excellent snow growth. looks like a snowglobe outside

All snow again heaviest all day here in Media huge feathery flakes pushing 2" now (after our fire engine red skies this morning at 7:00 am to the southeast.) Not on my bingo card today but I love it! 32f humidity 81% dew point 27f currently with Heavy Snow Snow total 2.0" Total Snow on Year: 11"

That was fucking awesome. Forget details and 0c lines this far out. Cold air a plenty and an active southern jet is chefs kiss.

12z GFS isnt great either- still decent here but really cut back for I-95 and NW

The 12z GFS has the 0z Euro Arctic outbreak over much of the eastern half of the United States.

they change every run so that leaves me with no confidence. we'll see what happens.

Yeah im not sure where the disconnect is. This is a panel off the 12z GFS. Its snows, lightly, for nearly 8 hours tomorrow. This looks like far more than an inch. Its not a major storm. But that is screaming 2-4 inches for eastern areas.

Yes, I think some need to realize that forecasting is more than just taking 8 seconds to look at QPF/snow maps and then creating a forecast

4" at the level

The models seem all over the place for tomorrow, some too far east some so far west NYC starts as rain.