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Came across this over on Southernwx

This isn’t our storm. but if forced we would take it. but I hope youse get it

Yeah ok 14 that's right.

HH did lock it, but that run up in modeling had steady positive trends almost in its entirety. This one hasn’t had that at all. I get SWFE is easier to predict, but this has felt opposite. Tip started the thread and it was biblical, we’ve been slip sliding away ever since.

DT-WxRisk‬ ‪@wxrisk.bsky.social‬ · 1h WED AM UPDATE ON FRI - SAT NC VA DELMARVA se New England SNOWSTORM youtu.be/TP5lGA9wl24 last few runs GFS MODEL still has blizzard for Nc/ va / Delmarva - Thats is BS. BUT good chance of a significant snow -maybe 10" in NE NC / Norfolk metro ..several inches RIC LYH ROA GSO DAN.

There's a CNE NNE vibe that is funny. Looks good for ESNE perhaps but just pay attention

yeah, I've seen it when it's snowy there. Beautiful thing

when you live in the little orange area just south of Wilmington...

Euro joins the ULL mountain focus and a late blooming coastal solution. It and weathernext are locked in.

My job is based outta Jackson co but I cover all of Division 14. Basically from Murphy to Haywood co. .

15 from the monster SWFE 34.4 on the season

Hey that gives my backyard 1.5 inches at 10-1 and with rates could be like 10-20

Wut? How many many many times 4 days out have we had the rug pulled with a 100 mile shift ots. All it takes is tiny initialization issues. Last storm didn't lock in until the Hurricane Hunters data started getting ingested.

@Terpeast @MN Transplant @WxUSAF Question... something I've noticed anecdotally over the last 20 years, when 3-5 days out we have models projecting a favorable H5 feature for our area...it trends north a significant majority of the time. However...when guidance has a cutoff h5 feature projected too far south of us...it does not tend to trend north as often. I can think of a logical reason, perhaps if a cutoff is far enough south its far enough removed from the NS flow and not impacted by minor variations the models typically get wrong...and which cause the north bleed in these features when they are around our latitude. Just wondering if you have also noticed this and if there is something to it, besides just random chance and us getting really unlucky lately.

https://x.com/SegravesNBC4/status/2016568040045871476 What a joke

Waiting for those glorious words from a met, "I don't believe the models have a good handle on this."

https://x.com/tbrite89/status/2016579926112010698 A football analogy to characterize how I view our current position on the field.

I’d say lately, 3in fo rdu would be a win, but I’m rooting for much more. Especially if it’s not messy snow.

There were a dozen good hits in there for E MA.

Looked at euro aifs whole run. It has been good so… Feb 5 thought looks like front with low to north Feb 11 moist storm perhaps swfe with track thru cne maybe clipper or 2 in between.

15 here in the very southeast part of Springfield MA. I have it on good authority that just one or two miles away there is quite a bit more in Longmeadow but this is all I can report in good conscience. Very dense and kind of heavy to move despite readings in the single digits while it was falling. We had a good 3 inches already otg so otg totals combined briefly hit 18 inches or so. Amazing event just poor snow growth the duration....even what little fell Monday only had decent growth for a few minutes morning and evening

We cooked! What a piece of sh*t the GFS is...

Hang tough! Don't bail yet!

I'm squinting to find them.