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EPS Some of these are so close but I included them in the "fail". Anything with AGC not in all purple.

Can we get a separate banter thread please? Too much nonsense here the last few hours.

Damn, I wasn't far off

Still a lot of time for details. There is no doubt in my mind that we mix here. I am ok with laying down some taundra before the next storm

If we were to even score 6" here, it would be a huge win and lots of trail systems will open.

Regardless of where the nam goes the rest of this run, everyone remember that it is the nam. I'm not model bashing, just pointing out that past 60 hours it may be on acid.

I agree. I feel like streams aren't interacting as much and the dome of confluence is pushing down more so at the 57 hr mark.

Can someone please point me in the right direction for the elementary school thread? This one is still too scary and I just don’t want to get banned before a storm.

Be over Minneapolis this time tomorrow

Better confluence than 12z Nam run will help. Still lower heights at 60hrs vs 12z Nam.

I do like seeing the trough more positively tilted out west through 60

So far less N/S phasing and lower heights out front.

This is why I hate this time frame - the "mid range". Someone needs to develop a good "mid range" model because the shifts between the long range and mid range, are almost always nerve wracking! Hopefully when we get into NAM range, which will start tomorrow, we'll see stuff nailing down more. The 12k NAM is running right now and the end frames may capture some of it.

This. That's what I thought he was doing and why I was thinking his analysis is pretty whacked if doing run to run comparisons.

Gonna be interesting to see the extent of ice cover in the lower Great Lakes in a week or two.

Everything came together perfectly from the perspective of producing as close as possible to the theoretical maximum for a single storm in our region.

The NAM is about 70 miles better with every piece of the vorts at 500 it looks like.

I'm not sure what he's seeing tbh

60 18z NAM

FYI, when you do analysis of a model run, everyone assumes you are comparing it to its previous run. If you are comparing it to a different model you have to say that or no one will know what you're talking about...even more than normal.

Heights still a little lower than 12z Nam at 57hrs

what u got otg? radar looks good for a DAB later here unless virga again

Almost a negative tilt over AZ on the NAM at 60hr lol

NAM should be better. More seperation with the streams at 5H out to 60

not that it matters much, but the 18z NAM out to 54 looks like it would end up being less conducive to an earlier phase less interaction between our southern energy and the stuff diving out of Saskatchewan, noticeably lower heights out east as the ULL over SE Canada is a little later to depart