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  2. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Beautiful pink asters. A great native fall perennial that should be used in place of non native mums. 34 at KFOK already. Forecast low of 35, likely makes it to the upper 20s in the pine barrens. .
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    The only thing I like as much or more than cold and snow is getting the forecast right, so there is nothing worse than when I go cold/snowy and winter sucks...last thing I want.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, the most likely outcome is it's just an exception to the October=winter N Pac pattern rule and it's just delayed.
  5. Stormchaserchuck1
    Yeah I think the whole year is when you have the strongest event on record, and there are basically no negative H5 anomalies in the mean April to the present. Will be interesting to see if the pattern sets up for the 1st time as the N. Hemisphere Winter comes, it did happen for the S. Hemisphere Winter.
  6. LongBeachSurfFreak
    For sure, it’s been shockingly cold in the Arctic this summer. So cold air is available to source. And anyone that claims to know exactly what is going to happen during an unprecedented event is just wishcasting. A very warm start, possibly record warm and of course wet is starting to lock in. After that the amount of uncertainty is off the charts. That’s why I think something like 83 or 16 is really on the table just as much as 73 or 98. .
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    Heh...I just ran that narrative through AI and needed to go cyber-stroke after reading the response. All I can say is we had better get that pig GOA low soon.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, October is usually telling for that....if we manage a cool ENSOish North Pacific, or hybrid type deal without MC tropical forcing...look out.
  9. Brian D
    Go NFC North! And Go Brewers starting Friday
  10. Stormchaserchuck1
    Nov-Mar +AAM 30-50N is a common pattern.
  11. Stormchaserchuck1
    Yeah I mean I'm 39F at 10pm. It's felt cool from the 2nd half of Summer on. I think there will be -AO tendency this Winter. And the N. pacific is looking nothing like El Nino right now... still.. told ya lol ENSEMBLE LOOP Will be interesting to see the N. pacific pattern this Winter. Monster low pressure likely won't dominate
  12. mitchnick
    I know. I get what you're saying. I just don't think this winter will act as hostile to cold/snow as worst case, at least not imby. And I also think the atmosphere is moving slower getting pieces in position thanks to the years of MC forcing and -PDO. That's why I'm more convinced with the formation of the Aleutian low than you. But as I said, time will tell and December will be here before you know it. Once Halloween hits, the holidays just fly by.
  13. GaWx
    Thanks. Do you know whether or not it’s normal for +AAM to be prevalent within 30-50N at any point during a strong El Niño? Or does it tend to stick closer to the equator? Have you seen any actual data? The only other El Niño for which I can see latitude based relative AAM from this site’s data is 23-4 because it only goes back to 2022. Reviewing 23-4, the 30S to 30N region had the main +AAM only during Dec 1st-Jan 15th and it never exceeded +3 SD for any latitude. That paled in comparison to Sept 14th-Oct 3rd of ‘26, when it exceeded +4 SD in portions of 15S to 15N!
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    This season isn't as easy as people are making it out to be....aside from it's safe to say it won't average cold. This is my 13th one of these seasonal deals and this one has a lot more conflicting data than most make it seem. Last year was just about the easiest one I have had.
  15. Stormchaserchuck1
    I'm not saying it can't snow, if the Pacific neutralizes we can do it with -AO, which I think we will have some -AO this Winter. But I'm pointing out a very likely flaw: long term modeling in the N. Pacific.
  16. Avdave
    Bottomed out at 40* this morning around 6:15am today Currently hanging at 48* at 950pm
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    Literally every polar indicator looks great, so I do think it's unreasonable to expect a favorable window....is guidance overdoing it? Probably-
  18. MJO812
    Be careful with that. We know weather does its own thing. Who knows maybe we will get decent blocking .
  19. MJO812
    The sea ice and snow cover doesnt look bad at all in Canada. We never seen an El Nino this strong so we dont know what the outlook would be. Going to be an interesting winter for sure.
  20. mitchnick
    I said my piece. We disagree. Only time will tell. So do you choose pistols or knives? Lol
  21. Stormchaserchuck1
    I disagree. Seasonal models and several weeks out models have show major error in the last few years. You can mark my words- the seasonal model mean is showing a -120dm N Pacific trough for DJFM. I think it will be significantly higher than that. Odds of them being too low is probably 95%. In 23-24 they were showing -90 to -120dm Winter mean and it ended up being +45dm. It's not narrow minded at all. Narrow minded is thinking it's going to be the same as all past El Nino's. History says Aleutian Low is an established El Nino pattern starting in October. That is not happening this year at all.
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    I don't want to give people the wrong idea....I'm not looking for an excuse to forecast 2002 or 2009...not happening at all. My whole argument is for a decent to very good 2-4 week stretch...somwething perhaps a bit more protracted than 2016. I agree with Adam that nothing is going to run the show over El Niño, however, I do think the Pacific currents and the higher latitudes are aligned to potentially provide a window of deviation from the straight super El Niño enema.
  23. mitchnick
    BS Chuck. Sorry but neither you nor any other person is better than the model consensus . Do you think they're not using analogs too? The models will have their errors, but the consensus is overwhelming. And don't be narrow-minded . The mean Aleutian Low has not been proged to get started until next month. But before the mean trough is established, you're going to get transient lows in the area, which is what has been happening. And that loop is for 1 run. Go back to older runs of the ensembles and you will see multiple lows showing up.
  24. Stormlover74
    No rain til Halloween?
  25. psv88
    59/38 split today. Nice day for fall baseball. Too bad my kids’ teams stink.
  26. Met1985
    Temp down to 43 degrees.
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