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Dry Stretch ahead

Lol, I’ve been around on here a little bit during the offseason! I really don’t do outlooks or predictions of my own, but I do read the upcoming Winter thoughts of pro forecasters & respected posters from the various regional forums on this website. The main theme with this strong El Niño appears to generally show that above normal average temperatures are likely for December & possibly average above normal throughout the Winter. In terms of snow, there should be a greater chance of high impact coastal storms. Of course, the unknown is if we can time up some periods of at least normal seasonal cold, especially during the heart of Winter from mid January to mid February. The hope for snow lovers is that we can time up an active subtropical jet with some periods of blocking with it being just cold enough. The 1 historic storm & done type of Winter is on the table as well, such as 2016 or 1983. Maybe we get lucky with extended periods of blocking, with several chances, such as 09-10 ? Maybe it’s just too warm for much snow, such as the Winters of 97-98 or 19-20 ? Hopefully we will have a chance of at least 1 block buster snowstorm in the heart of Winter! Either way, I look forward to tracking it all with you guys on here again this season!

the cope is spiraling out of control and it's not even november

Highs near 60 with a chilly start to the day with lows in the 20's inland to 30's along the shoreline this morning. Really need more rain, but that's looking meager for the rest of the month.

I know there is a launch tomorrow morning, but that is out of Florida.

Maple tree from a couple of days ago we'll see way more bright colors, I think, with low temps getting lower, but not freezing

Honestly, the funniest thing about the strong Nino this coming winter is that everyone in the north/northeast is prepared for a winter subpar to their climo. Expectations are set. It’s actually the troll comments that there will be no winter at all (in places that would see multiple snows in their warmest winter on record), that will look absolutely ridiculous next spring.

As always, if it doesn't happen on or around the time as proged, we may be in trouble. Fwiw, today’s weeklies establish the trough around the GOA the first week of November and holds it through the last week. We won't have long to wait. P.s. Today's weeklies put a nice hit on the PV too. This has been advertised for a few days now. https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-zonal-mean-zonal-wind?area=nh&base_time=202610190000

DTW lows the last 3 days 37F, 35F, 38F. Light frosts each day, with freezes in the colder spots. Might not see a cloud all week, but what better weather for peak Fall color peeping?

42 at 7:50 am. No 30's this go-round. Next time.

64 and beautiful today

34 for the low at Pen-Mar this AM. Less frost than the day before. Lots of mowing going on today as it has spiked to 68.

the freeze two nights ago dropped most of the leaves off a couple of maples in my yard

thank you for removing any pretense we may have had about your objectivity

Lots of fires with smoke for days. Gorgeous afternoon, 65, bright blue skies.

Foliage seems to have dulled a bit locally after wind, rain, and a couple of freezes.

Even at my latitude it's uncommon - only 6 of 28 Octobers have had measurable snow, most recently in 2018. Elsewhere in Maine - Gardiner had measurable in 2 of 12 Octobers, Fort Kent 8 of 10 but only 4 with 1"+ and none more than 4". BGR 1973-75 had only traces, though the Maritimes had a blizzard on 10/20-21/1974. We also had 0.7" on 10/26/1962 in NNJ.

Residual cold. Look how far the heights are off the coast matching the low anomaly.

Sandy’s track has no comparison in the entire historical record. That alone qualifies as historic. Also while still tropical over the Gulf Stream it had the largest area of tropical storm force winds of any TC in any basin ever. Also pretty historic. As far as timing of impactful extratropical storms, many where in the swing months of oct/nov and mar/April. The flow tends to slow down during this time and this allows coastal storms to affect multiple high tide cycles. The other name for the Ash Wednesday storm is the 6 tide storm. This exact scenario is playing out as we speak. Massive erosion and wash overs are occurring already on the outer banks and it’s just getting started. .

Disagree. That post had the trough moving east by the arrows. It's not moving east. And to say the eastward end is just smoothing out is your interpretation.

Here are the 850s for that same loop:

That’s not modeling a retrograde. You can clearly see the secondary center of LP N of HI moving east to replace it. The eastward end is just getting smoothed out. Come on now. The entire wave pattern is literally locked in.