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Something to watch potentially as we head into November.

It's curious that the seasonal models and Chuck's formula are flagging some -NAO because I agree the background is hostile.

denier board

October is the wettest month here, currently 5.39" and the only month over 5". Thru today we've had 1.95". After April/May/June came in a bit AN, we've gone back to dry.

35.5 for the low with some frost

47 for the low here. Really takes a long time to cool down with the water proximity.

Hurts done for the season. Anyone else having Eric Lindros flashbacks?

broke down and put the heat on this morning.

The universe itself is a cosmic quantum computer read my thread in the science subforum. I did say that democracy does not work in a nation of idiots. Are these similar to the naturally occurring doldrums at the horse latitudes that Columbus experienced? But I never said it's an existential threat to humanity either. It IS an existential threat to our way of life though. Look I'm under no illusions about the usage of fossil fuels being stopped any time in the next 100 years. Even when they are overtaken by renewables they will still be used because the nature of humanity is to use every single drop of resource until it's all used up. The reason why an all of the above approach has been embraced is the same reason GMOs have been embraced the human population is simply too high and still getting higher. Until that changes nothing else will change. My issue with fossil fuel companies is their coverup for decades, their lack of accountability and the fact they need to be financially punished for all the damage they've caused. To the environment and in terms of billion dollar disasters.

The model did a good job with the general 500mb pattern forecast. Notice the ridge axis is actually now expected to be more amplified over the Great Lakes. But we got the low off the East Coast keeping our flow more onshore. So more of an Omega pattern than originally forecast. Also another El Niño feature. Once the low to our east moves out in late October, it will allow the ridging to shift closer to our area. But with the high east of New England, we could still see some onshore flow. With the trough getting stronger out West in response to the El Niño, it should mean a warmer pattern for us heading into late October and early November. The average split for late October and early November is around 60/43 at EWR. So any day with highs into the mid-60s and lows near 50° is considered warmer. New run Old run

low of 39F here - coldest since April I presume.

1983 and 2016 both had minor warmings.

I expect a minor warming (non-reversal) and wave-1 reflection event latter January into early Feb.

I know there will be disagreement on this but IMO, the antecedent conditions are not favorable for SSWEs and a very weak SPV this winter despite the super El Nino…..descending solar coming off the max last year, high geomag, strong +QBO; still strengthening and has now downwelled into the bottom of the stratosphere where it can couple with the tropospheric pattern, +IOD. Very unfavorable IMO but we shall see

Here's the paper on the 1846 hurricane, from the SCI-HUB site: https://sci-hub.reatk.com/10.1080/24694452.2020.1838257. I'm a big fan of Prof. Cary Mock (one of the authors) and his historical tropical cyclone reconstructions. Chenoweth also has some excellent papers along the same lines. For instance, "A New Compilation of North Atlantic Tropical Cyclones, 1851–98": https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/27/23/jcli-d-13-00771.1.xml Another late season hurricane which - while not as intense as Hazel and the 1846 hurricane - interacted favorably with an upstream upper level trough and maintained unusually strong intensity well inland was the "Gale of 1878": http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/research/roth/galeof78.htm This is an interesting paper along the same lines which deals with several East Coast hurricanes from the late 1700s to early-mid 1900s: https://scispace.com/pdf/paleotempestology-reconstructing-atlantic-tropical-cyclone-103stxo9p4.pdf

I had the same exact temp as yesterday, 32.4

Wondering if we truly see it push east or get a result similar to this coming weekend. *Frames are cherry picked just to show for the example*

yeah... I was just remarking about this over the ENSO thread this morning. It's anomalously cold relative to pattern - which is interesting ... if one can keep personal druthers out of the perspectives. We've observed a trough scooting quickly through Ontario a couple of times, but by and large ... we've been above normal hydrostats over much of the CONUS below the 45th parallel, yet ... we are getting frost and freeze headlines and lows in the upper 20s. -the longer term temperature anomaly distribution still probably end up decimals warmer than normal. That's been a leitmotif going back ... years actually. We end up above normal against the 30 year base while being below normal relative to daily metrics like the pattern. It's like we've been getting "cheated" from realizing a stunningly warm October along 80W over the continent, stunningly warm a lot of months, due to "pinch low" phenomenon and/or sneaky llv cool inserts, despite the fact that a truer polar branch of the westerlies (jet) has been situating N-W. It's interesting that we just cannot seem to sustain a westerly lower tropospheric momentum under this July setting ... like in Julys either! This whilst frost advisories underneath ...