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Interesting little swirl on the satellite and radar right at the MD/PA border. Land Hurricane forming! /s Glad to have some rain after missing most of it over the weekend.

GEFS east but still a ton of spread and some interesting members. The GFS does have an east or OTS bias with coastal's though not sure if really only applies with winter and dealing with Arctic airmasses. If 12z euro is similar to at least yesterday's runs this is going to be a hell of a battle between the suites. One of them is going to get totally schooled

I believe that the reality we perceive is the end product of what I call 'synergistic inheritance' "plank pixels" exchange information and a byproduct of that interaction ( which takes place at C rate, never more, never less...) creates something near or perhaps substrate to the Quark spectrum ..etc. the formulation of the fundamental forces of nature takes place in this near infinitesimal scale ... whereby larger and larger constructs emerging and the Quark spectrum. we recognize (eventually) as energy and matter.

Another day and another wicked thunderstorm in the Valley!

GFS blipped but so far all the other 12z runs, meso and global, look pretty solid.

treys second fall winter severe weather season forecast is planning on being released this Wednesday https://x.com/convchronicles/status/2102072657894142101?s=46&t=nTdsbQZkQMPkUI3zGjAXJg .

Line formed just as it moved in from the west. SC actually got hit pretty good from it. PWS showing .4". Complaining worked. Lol.

Gonna be a forest flattener

Hopefully a very safe weekend for apple picking.

Weather models cry wolf. Can't handle blocking well in 2026. Everything pushing out to sea, or well South.

6z EURO most impressive with the LLJ

And then by the end of this century under modest SSP2-4.5 assumptions. Philly should have winters that resemble those of early 20th century, Memphis, TN, summers that look like those of early 20th century Shreveport, and full-year analog of Memphis, TN. Winter Summer Full-year

As we head into the middle part of the 21st century under modest SSP2-4.5 emissions, it looks like this. Note, if SSP3.3-7 or SSP5-8.5 are correct, then the warming will be even more robust. I know the latter was "retired" but some still say *actual forcings* aren't too far off from that projection, even if emissions are substantially lower. By mid-century, Philly winters will likely resemble those of the Pacific Northwest, with summers looking like early 20th century Fort Smith, AR, and the full-year looking like Chattanooga, TN. Winter Summer Full-year

big forecast bust so far today. beautiful day, mostly sunny 70F DP 58F

This is really coming along well. Here is Philadelphia. First, recent observed conditions (2016-2025). We can see recent winters feel like early 20th century Asheville, NC; recent summers resemble those of early 20th century Wilmington, NC; and full-year closest match is Knoxville, TN. Not perfect match, as Knoxville had warmer highs, but fairly close. Winter Summer Full-year

You know this is going to find a way to miss. I’ve seen posts about this for what seems like a week now. Im sure I’ll be apple picking with the kid on Saturday with mostly cloudy sky’s and a stiff breeze. Hoping to salvage some of the weekend

Light rain falling. Good for my grass seed.

that track with a lower pressure would be fun

Watch gfs come 200 miles west at 18z

12z UKMET's your dealer if you're seeking a d-drip hit off this thing ...

With lots of mayonnaise to at least moisten them a little bit.

Pouring Southside of winchester. Nothing at home 3 miles away.