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Too much warmth in the east.

Like I said, too much warmth.

Yeah basin wide is warmer than west-based, but I'm pointing out that 91-92 Winter warmth was an anomaly in an event with that orientation.

Did Hubbardston throw down any salt?

Right....events that strong always have warmth in region 1.2. Okay.....I get that. But that doesn't make me wrong....good luck getting one that doesn't.

NAO part of that composite is "other factors", not completely connected to ENSO imo.

Spring peepers triggered here… Not even a little bit I mean they’re like loud choruses driving down the roads

That is a composite only a mother could love.

Wow....I really sucked in February; I'm sure Roger is laughing at me from Heaven right now.

The only way I can see that making a difference is if it's spilling over into Nino 3 and 1+2. If Nino 1+2 is +2, instead of +0.5.. because of the physics of that situation support a CONUS ridge

The NAO is weakly correlated to ENSO. There is in statistics a point of "random" where X amount of examples if they show something can be deemed as not significant. Then the logic of weak and strong in the same area is different, and it doesn't make sense. It's a shame we have so few data points, but the physics of meteorology and Hadley Cell/mid latitude Cell meeting points support generally cooler conditions in the Eastern US in Strong (>2.0) west-based El Nino's, as long as the eastern ENSO regions aren't going crazy

Exceptionally strong....I don't argue 1.5-2.0 can be favorable.

A sample of 50 Strong El Nino's might change your mind?

Maybe I'm wrong...but until I see data to the contrary, I will feel as though extremely strong ENSO is hostile for high latitude blocking.

Right....on average.....exceptionally strong events aren't average.

El Nino events actually favor 10mb Stratosphere warmings.. which can be -AO

No, I'm not "stuck"....what I do know is there is literal dearth of high latitude blocking when ENSO is exceptionally powerful, and I don't think that's a coincidence. Okay, the sample size is small....but it still is what it is.

We are so lucky the indexes were what they were in the middle of Winter. The longer term (14 month) index pattern is horrid for cold.

I see where you are getting stuck, you are taking analogs too literal. There are only really 2. The mechanics of the situation don't change, it only changes the amplitude. If forcing is west-based, that's +PNA and a stronger +PNA if it's >2.0 in the west (RONI). I'll take a really, really strong +PNA. You just don't want it to get too close to the west coast, US, which is more tropically east-based

I would prefer it a bit weaker...but I don't doubt we could have had a good interlude(s) if the polar domain were not so hostile. I compare all of these analogs with a fine-tooth comb this summer and fall.

So why wouldn't the opposite produce an opposite anomaly pattern?

Agree 100%.

Also there have been no La Nina's <-2.0. If there were, I bet they would be warm if they were west-based (maybe before 1950 there were some, I'll have to check)