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It’s insane to me we’re talking about a storm with coastal influence and possible 20:1 ratios. To say that’s rare would be a massive understatement

Suck me sideways.

https://www.facebook.com/share/p/1A3p99WK5K/?mibextid=wwXIfr Lastest from Brad P!

I don't know. Normally, one doesn't see such a pattern. More may have been involved.

Why not just WSW from noon to midnight in that county area for potential of 6” or greater?

FFC out of Atlanta afternoon video is really good stuff!

The long range HRRR has snow ratios at 17 to 20 to one,it's gonna stack up.

“More and more models”

Jeez this is insane

And south-central virginia

Yup def a beach storm kitty hawk up to you guys.. Congrats

3k

Ocean temperature gradient

I wouldn't use the nam for precip at all at this range. It's going to move every run

We cant have the ULL track as far north as the NAM and RFFS show or we will get downsloped plain and simple. Luckily the Euro, GFS (somewhat) and AI models have it going in a better spot for us.

Guess we'll just call this the storm that could have been. I for sure thought this was going to come up the coast days ago but totally wrong on that. dendrites post this morning illustrated why it wasn't happening and those signals with trough, dPVA, and dynamics were there the whole time to tell the story.

What's interesting to me about RAH's last product is that the dry slot is not apparent on the 90% low end, but does seem evident on the 10% high end. As if we're either getting a broad shield or getting bombed with comparative dry slots. (IANAM, so what do I know?)

Maybe they just hadn’t updated it yet .

is it me, or are isopleth's overlapping here lol This is the ugliest looking thing I think I have ever seen *edit - Ok, I see it now, the 531 perfectly matches the NJ coastline and the "overlap" is just perfectly timed to when they pinch-off from one another

Here’s my Accuweather forecast. (Yeah I know lol) but it’s nice to see my % isn’t that far apart. .

I'd say you're good. 29 or 81 are always taken care of. Main roads in NC get brined like the dmv. Side streets are last in line or ignored completely in rural areas but not main roads

18z NAM had it snowing through 21z Sunday for HR

WRAL adjusted their totals. They are concerned about dry air being wedged between two maxima. They said there is a dry slot showing up on "more and more models."

Hi Don, do you think that the lack of sounding data in the 6z and 18z runs might contribute to the divergent solutions?

For now, but it trended NW