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I’m like Griswold’s boss on the phone right now. “just give me something….anything!!”

I think there is a pretty solid consensus right now that DC is about the northern extent of an inch. Further south - and you don't have to go too much further south - 1-3" seems right down to RIC. A casual 50mi shift north would help many of us, but some minor accumulations would be sweet.

I'm in my office in Waterbury today. When I got here at 7:30 it was clear and 28° on my car thermo. I looked out the window an hour later and we were in the middle of a full blown squall. Not sure about any temp drop yet.

Thanks. Will be interesting to see if it impacts morning rush and schools. .

Looking quickly, after peaking mid-November, the SOI seems to have been on a rapid decline but this could also be due to local weather patterns and system influencing Tahiti and Australia. But let's say that is not the case...based on SSTA trends, an argument could be made the La Nina has already peaked (at least for this season). But this is just a very quick, basic assessment. but not sure what point he was trying to make posting a daily contribution to the SOI value

Earlier. Like 4-5 am.

With any luck, a bit of "phasing"...and subsequent propagation.

most modeling seems to be thinking that DC is the dividing line for an inch.

That’s my shred of optimism as well. I just don’t see how low 50s are doable with this cloud deck moving in.

What time does it start in dc? 8am or so? .

Looks like Richmond will have more snow season to date than Methuen MA. by later tomorrow.

I still have heavy frost and it's only 32.6 with clouds taking over. May not get much above 40 today unless we get more filtered sun.

Thought this bit was kind of odd: "The revised analysis shows economic damages from climate change till mid-century are substantial and outweigh the costs of mitigation" It seems the relationship of the costs shouldn't necessarily be 1:1 or anything like that. Every dollar spent on mitigation doesn't lessen the costs of CC by a dollar - it may be much less or it may be much more; and you may actually want one or the other. E.g. say the costs due to CC (generally storms - wind and flooding) end up being $500 billion in a given area over the next 25 years, if no mitigation was done. You could spend say twice that - say $1 trillion - on sea walls, stricter building codes, river flood mitigation (drainage and walls), and lessen the resulting damage costs from $500B to say $300B. Was it bad to spend the $1 trillion, since the net loss is $700B? Maybe, but maybe not if you consider that there are also lives involved; presumably less lives lost in the do-mitigate case. Looking from a strictly financial standpoint - it seems like you generally would *want* your mitigation costs to be less than the damage costs, right? This is due to the unpredictable nature of storms. If you spend more money to mitigate then the delta between the two is by definition wasted money - generally. That said - there's probably some low-hanging fruit that is worthwhile. E.g. the US built a series of flood-control dams after the big Ohio river flood in 1937; this likely ended up saving money in the long run, so that might be a case where the cost of mitigation reduced the likely cost of non-mitigation damages. Same is true for flood walls in various places - usually it's money well spent. But it's rarely a 1:1 tradeoff though; so comparing the two sets of figures seems odd.

Actually, 6z euro looks better.

Trending down, yes, but the thing is AAM forecasts have been biased too negative over the past 30 days. When correcting for that, AAM may be closer to neutral.

Look at the SOI around the 23 of Nov then next week,this is when the models get chaotic with the MJO,but even that today, look how negative the SOI is today,the LaNina base state has been taking out and it is acting more Nino now,seems like the JMA and Euro are going into the COD,then back into the WH afterwards possibly and should probably climb back out the COD,actually the GEFS isnt far behind

So much for the snow melting. Got about an inch the other day and it hasn't even melted off the wood in the middle of the field.

Wow..ok. Thanks for the info Paul.

Low of 30.0 on the dot. Once again, heavy frost

Probably the best run of the 3k (not saying much). Gets the 2" line to EZF, about 1 to DC.

I'll have to go look at the latest SOI now but something about what he posted doesn't make sense. A prolonged period of negative SOI would typically coincide with EL Nino conditions while a prolonged period of positive SOI coincides with La Nina. A tanking SOI would imply either going towards EL Nino or an ongoing EL Nino event would be strengthening.

Heard on the radio that we could set a daily record low tonight. Granted the record (12) is easily the softest December record on the books, as the 5th is the only day that has never reached single digits.

I want to send SEAL team 6 after this guy .

Maybe the date can bring about a “changeable event”