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@Scraff will be at happy hour

With the OP Euro being decent and some of the ensembles interested, I think I can emotionally invest in this one. At least until TimB5412487 comes in and tells me the latest model is way south and weak.

CC helping there more so than in CT ?

I'm not buying the NAM at this range no matter what it says. Euro AIFS says go and it's been deadly this year, so it's go until it says otherwise.

ineedsnow is still tracking the Cape scrape from a couple weeks ago

And we’ll trust it, right

This is what I have been trying to say. Our only hope is to get this phase. Lucky for us Euro Airs has trended towards the phase.

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Boom

Its better but waiting for WxBell maps to post unless someone wants to beat me to it

In an hour, we're all going to be celebrating!!

Euro gave this thread life for at least another 4hrs. Let’s see if it sustains.

Get ready for our first Namng coming soon

Well at least he picked a good one

I don't know if this is necessarily about bringing the storm more north as much as it is building a precipitation shield farther poleward due to better dynamics. That's probably something to watch for. There really is little to support the storm bumping north, however, if we can increase the dynamics a bit (with assistance from a better northern stream) we might be able to build some light precip into the region.

AIFS ENS is more tightly clustered off the Mid-Atlantic coast, QPF mean is 0.7" in Philly (some of that is probably rain at initial onset). There's probably a few big ones in the AIFS ENS individuals

Even down here, my forecast on Thursday evening (night before the storm) was for "4 or more inches, with the potential for as much as a foot" - the following day, 24.5" fell.

Really doesn’t need to be that much colder and wetter to at least get the metros both into something respectable for the setup. And something has really changed in the last few hours clearly, so who knows? I’m of the belief that whatever changed isn’t likely to be fully handled on models in just 1 or 2 runs. Could go either way with further adjustments but I feel optimistic we can bring a few more people into the game.

I get that, but he acts like there is some suspense to come. "Euro Trying, etc". I mean...ok

12z never updated, but.... I didn't see anyone post 6z which was pretty nice already lol. 12z op was improved so we can just assume 12z ENS are better right

I recorded 5" of snow between 4pm and 5pm along with multiple rounds of lightning and thunder. I was a senior in high school and was worried that I wouldn't graduate until July because of the storm. Fortunately it came on a Friday, so we missed that day but we were back on Monday with a delay.

Based on this year, you might lean a bit towards the AI models. But I think that’s probably only true when the set up supports them and I think what I’m hearing the meteorologists and really smart hobbyists say that the setup doesn’t support the better outcomes.

I’m 2 miles nw of 15. This is great news.