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I have read (from semi-reliable sources) that the very high arctic...above 80N....has been freakishly cold this summer. What's up with that? Is it a super +AO?

77 / 73 Soutern Florida type steam continues today. Enough sun gets min /upper 80. Tomorrow the sunnier day and looks like in the hotter areas a shot at 90. Trough generally into the GL-NE 8/21 - 8/28 with near normal and chances of rain and sotherly flow on the eastern side of the trough. Overall warmer beyond there.

73 degree dewpoint at 9 am. nasty. Bring back the drought.

The answer to this question will determine if there is a backlash, strong la nina or a carryover el nino in 2027-28. If it peaks early, then it will have a head start to a developing a strong la nina (just look at the transition to la nina in 1988). If it peaks in the climo window, we'll probably have a slower decay, and have a carryover el nino in 2027-28, before we go la nina in 2028-29.

Hope youre right! We are a more nickel and dime snow climate so youd get multiple jebwalks here even in the mildest winters. Make or break is how many big storms can we get, and how big are they. Might be a little optimistic to think crawling out second story windows in DC, but if the juiced jet meets cold air, should see a good storm down there.

It's been a few years since the lawn's been this lush and green in late August. 77F/DP 73F

given the magnitude, the godzilla el nino almost certainly already playing a role in our weather and i'm curious to see how things play out as we head closer to october, suspect we're about to see a warm fall for the record books

Looks like Pivotal recently changed up their RRFS products. They only had RRFS-A for awhile, but now there’s RRFS and GSL-MPAS-RRFSA. I’ll admit I haven’t been keeping up with the documentation on this.

It's either going to peak early ... or, peak in the climo window, which obviously then begs the question over how extreme it'll push. It may sort of plateau? Like I wonder if there's a ceiling - in fact, there has to be. There's only so much thermally available in the global system. That is why I suspect a plateauing of sorts might be observed if this rise continues to be absurd so early... We hit a max earlier in the autumn and it levels out..etc. The thermal input into the ENSO warm mode is barrowed from the surrounding planetary system from two sources. The first being additive by solar flux. The second being a complex heredity. These sources can only give so much - and they may in fact be down(up) maxes due to variable ongoing constraints year-to-year. In this situation, the antecedence is definitely providing an impressive warm heritage. What, with the global atmosphere and oceanic ongoing empirical data hovering the curves in top 3 months and months on end, occasionally toeing them in first place along the way. It's like a dad that is 6'9" tall, and a mom that is and unusual-for-female height of 6'1", having a son together - gee, why is our kid 7'1" by 17 years of age. Enter NBA scouts... When the winds turned, the background available source and state is thus so favorable ... it's like an explosive warm ENSO growth. But, that kid isn't going to be taller than Robert Wadlow's GOAT altitude of 8'11.1" at the time he had grown to death basically. Just 22 years of age. Actually, the gentle giant required ankle braces that were specially fabricated by cutting edge early last century prosthetic science ... This caused an abrasion sore that got infected and then he died of sepsis. It's thought that he'd grown so much that his circulatory system was inadequate, lending to the infection fester. Little bit of useless trivia... haha. Can you imagine seeing a human being that is just one foot less than a basket ball rim?

Sun is going to come out later and its going to feel very uncomfortable - forecasted upper 80's here from Mt. Holly Also radar is not showing the true intensity of some of these showers - have to really zoom in to see it

Thanks... The promos for it are inticing. I'm at the point that if I add another app, I should probably drop one...

Pouring

Heaviest rains have shifted SE in the 7 day from the WPC

Saw a bat in my backyard this weekend

Speaking of satellite, I just noticed too Steve's site has satellite. Sick

I am really thinking about it as well. TornadoTitans also released something today https://titantrack.tornadotitans.com/ Not sure if there is an app but this seems pretty freaking cool too. I did anything that has easily viewable satellite

My favorite bit of sports trivia is about him. He's the only player who ever has played for a Grey Cup winner and Super Bowl champion from a team in the same city. He was on the Stallions in 1995 and of course the Ravens in Super Bowl XXXV (and made the very first tackle in that game!)

There has been measurable rain here for 9 of 18 August days. 4.15” for August.

Finally got some rain last night. 0.25-0.75" around the TH area. Temps have been reaching the low 80's the last couple days with low dews. Very pleasant summer wx. Looks like 75-80 the next few days with more rain possible later this week.

I actually have not used it, but I’m thinking about getting it because it looks really nice. I know someone who uses it and they love it.

Definitely thankful for every chance now that we're back in normie weather mode, hopefully we get something decent and not too much crapvection early

August 18 1953: Four heifers near St. Martin were lucky; a tornado picked them up and set them back down again, unharmed. For Tuesday, August 18, 2026 1925 - During the late morning hours a severe hailstorm struck southeastern Iowa completely destroying crops along a path six to ten miles wide and 75 miles long. The hail also injured and killed poultry and livestock, and caused a total of 2.5 million dollars damage. The hailstorm flattened fields of corn to such an extent that many had to leave their farms in search of other work. It was one of the worst hailstorms of record for the nation. (The Weather Channel) 1983 - Hurricane Alicia ravaged southeastern Texas. The hurricane caused more than three billion dollars property damage, making it one of the costliest hurricanes in the history of the U.S. Just thirteen persons were killed, but 1800 others were injured. The hurricane packed winds to 130 mph as it crossed Galveston Island, and spawned twenty-two tornadoes in less than 24 hours as it made landfall. (The Weather Channel) (Storm Data) 1987 - Thirteen cities in the eastern U.S. reported record high temperatures for the date, including Orlando FL with a reading of 98 degrees, and Portland ME with a high of 94 degrees. Newark NJ reached 90 degrees for the thirty-sixth time of the year, their second highest total of record. (The National Weather Summary) 1988 - Twenty-two cities, from the Carolinas to the Upper Ohio Valley, reported record high temperatures for the date, pushing the total number of daily record highs since the first of June above the 1100 mark. Afternoon highs of 102 degrees at Greensboro NC and 105 degrees at Raleigh NC equalled all-time records. Evening thunderstorms in Montana produced wind gusts to 75 mph at Scobey. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1989 - Thunderstorms over the Middle Atlantic Coast Region and the Upper Ohio Valley produced torrential rains in eastern Virginia during the late morning and afternoon hours. Totals ranged up to twelve inches at Yorktown. Williamsburg VA was deluged with 10.78 inches of rain between 6 AM and 10 AM, with 6.72 inches reported in just two hours. Flash flooding caused nearly twelve million dollars damage in Accomack County VA. Early evening thunderstorms in the Central High Plains Region produced walnut size hail and wind gusts to 80 mph around Casper WY. Thunderstorms produced locally heavy rains in the Yellowstone Park area, causing fifteen mudslides. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) Observances: 18 Tue National Fajita Day 18 Tue National Couple's Day 18 Tue Bad Poetry Day 18 Tue National Ice Cream Pie Day 18 Tue National Mail Order Catalog Day 18 Tue Never Give Up Day 18 Tue Pinot Noir Day 18 Tue Serendipity Day 18 Tue World Breast Cancer Research Day

A little runway help edging the temp not out of the question, but I get it.

Yes, we snowshoed in. Pond was frozen solid.

Temperature pattern heading into late August looks close to average.