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For NW burbs: the GFS has been ticking east with where the H7 low closes off and it's general track. The small ticks east with that is why areas further NW have been losing some QPF/snow. Again, we just don't know where that will set up right now and 8-16" throughout Berks and the Lehigh Valley is a good call based on current data. What will happen tomorrow is the precip shield will begin to blossom as the baroclinic leaf expands/PVA rotates into the coast with the trough tilting negative. I would not be surprised to see snow as far back as Pittsburgh. Then, as the mid-level lows close off, the larger precip shield will begin to collapse back towards central/eastern PA as the secondary circulation fronto bands rapidly develop. Also, there appears to be an IVT develop across Central PA. You will likely see a dual band structure with the coastal low: one closer to the coast with 850mb fronto and one further NW with 700mb fronto. There will inherently be some subsidence outside of those bands. These bands will be rotating off the ocean from SE to NW. Who ever can catch the pivot point of either of those bands will score the jackpot. Now one of the biggest differences between our models remains just how stalled out our surface low gets, and therefore how long those intense frontogenesis bands have time to rotate inland. The NAM remains the most amped outlier and tucks/stalls the system for hours, so these bands can extend much further inland. The RGEM is less amped and quicker, so the bands are quick to depart eastward. In summary, this has nothing to do with the storm track anymore. The differences really come down to how amplified and stacked these mid-level lows get.

We are lucky to have you. You make us proud. Well done friend. Not often do we get to see writeups like that for this area

We can be a two man therapy group. Part of the whole evolution of this was the cold front and winds happening here so I guess in some way I’m taking part in it lol.

I've also learned that the best banding is usually NW of the best modeled QPF.

3z HRRR much colder than 0z HRRR, probably just reverting back to the real solution

00z GFS put some nice rates down on the coast!

I also think it's time to hang up the ensembles too.

are you saying we're in a good spot for the norlun?

And I bet you made alot more per hour than doing it for the city would

Looks like most models have converged on 12-16 here. Potential for more sure, but that seems like the right forecast for now. Coastal NJ and SEMA seem like the jackpot spots.

Ahh I see. Welp, guess I'll have to accept my fate of being in the middle--but 6-8" still isn't bad. I'm guessing the NAM solution wasn't realistic? (Was that really a triple phase?)

Was 87 in Miami today. Will be 65 on Monday. I come back Wednesday

It's really mesoscale time imo .

This is why many of us are here, but yeah, we hang out w/ some good folks as well. Enjoy all. This is the good stuff (even if a little east for my liking).

They’re crazy high, but this is a crazy strong storm (sub 975 mb) with a lowest at 500 mb of sub 520 and tons of moisture. I mean this is a once in 10+ years kind of deal with crazy heavy snowfall rates that can easily accumulate well on nonpaved surfaces even with temps up to 34-35.

For big dogs SNE-wide, I have learned over the years to want H5 centers to track closer to ACK. I don’t like, and haven’t really liked frankly, these H5 progressions right over BM. Not a met, but my 2 cents

GEFS more robust than GFS

i forgot that one lol..

2/22 00z GEFS Total QPF 2/22-2/23-24 Mean Snow 10:1

From the Philly subforum

Last 2" - 5/13 to 5/16/2025 (3.11 inches over 4 days) 2025-05-13 71 62 66.5 3.1 0 2 0.28 0.0 0 2025-05-14 66 59 62.5 -1.2 2 0 1.30 0.0 0 2025-05-15 77 63 70.0 6.0 0 5 0.03 0.0 0 2025-05-16 77 60 68.5 4.2 0 4 1.50 0.0 0 Last 1 " - 1/25/2026 (our last snowstorm) 2026-01-25 24 15 19.5 -13.7 45 0 1.39 9.3 2 Before that was 12/19/2025 (our warmest day this winter) 2025-12-19 61 31 46.0 8.3 19 0 1.48 0.0 0

i was old enough to remember the days when joe bastardi did accuweather radio forecasts on 1010 wins along with dr joe sobel elliot abrams etc..

Cool. Cheers!

If the norlun is over Baltimore, we’ve got a much larger problem. Would likely mean the storm is way east offshore