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  2. HIPPYVALLEY
    Looks warm and boring for the foreseeable future.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    -EPO/-WPO is usually tough to come by in super El Niño events.
  4. Typhoon Tip
    Yeah, I’ll give it a read
  5. Typhoon Tip
    Regard to these linear correlations… That’s backward incompatible then? Seems that way Descending solar would cancel out the very things the El Niño is positively correlated with…. Obviously not the absolute sense. Just sayn’ You only need two big blizzards to make a winner out of winter
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    John, check out my update from last month.....really hits on what you are eluding to. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2026/06/forecast-intense-el-nino-potential.html I think we are going to maintain about. a.5 delta between the ONI and RONI, which would continue to denote some MC competition with El Niño.....less so than 2023, but perhaps similar if not more than 2015. Guidance tries to push back against that idea, but I'll believe it when I see it....they have done a very poor job with that throughout the past decade, usually erroneously modding in favor of stock ENSO.
  7. high risk
    Some signal in guidance for a few late night / early morning cells, with higher chances to the east.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think a strong -NAO signal from the North Atlantic would be a real feather in the cap of the 1957, 1965. 1986 camps....even 2009.
  9. Typhoon Tip
    Yeah, I should’ve said that ”in relation to the models” I am aware of the climate timing. I just am wondering what it means when the background state of the planetary oceans being so warm to begin with - this represents certain challenges … perhaps even for the Relative ONI ( I haven’t been paying much attention to this thread and very busy so apologies if this has been dragged through the coals already)
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    Some of the modeling may have rushed it a bit, but this El Niño is still ahead of any other on record.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    Should be an interesting forecast for the polar domain this season....on the one hand, it looks pretty definitive that we at least aren't headed towards a strongly +NAO per the N ATL formula, which would be huge because that is game-over in an El Niño of this magnitude. On the other hand, we are now into the portion of the solar cycle that is very hostile to high latitude blocking. Descending solar 2-4 years removed from solar max is strongly supportive of +NAO as geomag peaks given the lag from solar flux. That said, my early solar analogs are not devoid of blocking, so my hunch continues to be some fun and games during the second half after a tepid first half. The key to increased confidence would be getting a -WPO signal, a la 1982...more on that later this season. I will of course draft all of this out complete with visuals to elucidate my thoughts in vivid detail later this fall.
  12. Typhoon Tip
    Where do things stand now, relative to predictions? ahead behind on time
  13. eyewall
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, I just looked back at that section of my publication from last fall. I think if we hold it for another month, we should be good.
  15. Stormchaserchuck1
    It's May-Sept. We are 42% of the way through. May was pretty neutral in N. Atlantic SSTA. Cold pool, -NAO orientation has only appeared in June and July.
  16. Stormchaserchuck1
    I wouldn't worry about that lol. -NAO in Super Nino STJ is ideal. Question is if the Pacific will still respond to decadal +EPO/-PNA pattern.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    No....Boxing Day was very frustrating...it was an occluded, shredded mess....great banding was back in the tri- state area.
  18. yotaman
    Ended the day with .78".
  19. Maestrobjwa
    What? What was wrong with it? But oy that had to be painful for you guys. But don't worry y'all paid us back time tje following December, lol
  20. RickinBaltimore
    Kremer's Jewish Deli was serving all the meatballs tonight I see.
  21. Hurricane Agnes
    Got up to 85 for a high after a 65 low. Started out nice but the dp has crept back into the 70s. Currently 79 with dp 70.
  22. eyewall
    Yeah it was trying for an independence day look over Raleigh:
  23. CoastalWx
    Lobster rolls?
  24. Yesterday
  25. EC609
    March 1993 superstorm. Southwest Virginia. High Chaparral community at 3300'. 46 inches of snow. 30 inches in a 24 hour period. Over 50 inches at High Knob at 4200'. 12 foot drifts, hurricane force wind gusts. Totally insane. This is an area very used to snow. The average at Wise at 2650' in the valley is over 45 inches per season. High Knob itself averages closer to 90 inches per Winter. Snowiest part of Virginia. Most people aren't even aware of the climate of this area. Highknoblandform.com
  26. CAPE
    Alonso hit a home run and Ben McDonald called it a polar vortex lol
  27. mitchnick
    If I do, I'll let the good Lord he can take me now. Lol
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