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How can anyone take the seasonal models at face value for the winter which is 4-6 months away when the May forecast for this June and July only 1-2 months out had such significant errors? This is another example of the models not having much skill beyond the 15 day period. Notice how the ridges in the mid-latitudes verified much stronger leading to the strong -PDO +AMO pattern. The forecasts were going for a general Nino 3.4 correlation which didn’t work out. So it looks like the models are just defaulting to Nino 3.4 climatology for June and July. Back in 2023-2024 the winter forecasts also defaulted to general Nino 3.4 correlations with the ridges verifying much stronger and the troughs weaker. Forecasts from around May 1st June Forecasts June correlation for Nino 3.4 June verification July forecasts July correlation Nino 3.4 July verification

71 degrees picked up .30” of rain over night.

Ended up with 2.5 inches of rain from that storm in just about an hour. That 55+dbz was about 10 minutes of it.

It was above 55dbz for a while. 55 is 4 inches per hour and 60 is 8.5 or so.

Incredible rainfall rates over the last hour or so. It was coming down so hard a few minutes ago that it looked almost like snow in the street lights.

For the most part all of these seasonal/climate models are depicting a boilerplate Nino wrt the h5 height anomalies. Basically we can see its gonna be a Nino and not a Nina lol. Beyond that, the devil will be in the details and we just can't know yet.

If you want to be adventurous, try Dolly Sods. Very rugged and very unique for the area and has a Canada vibe- 'Features rare sphagnum bogs, heath barrens, and stunted red spruce trees typical of Canada rather than the mid-Atlantic.' Rough ride up from Canaan Valley but lots of trails and a great view east from Bear rocks, at about 4000 ft. Also check out Seneca Rocks. Not a long hike up but steep so a decent workout and a great view.

I’m getting gusts over 25 what is up

87 today. Beautiful day to sail the new boat. Winds gusting to 20 mph or so was perfect

But the summer just pretty much died after this point last year.

Looks pretty good for gully-washer tstms Sunday. GFS/ECMWF show PWATs over 2" (max 2.5") for the entire region. SW to NE training a good bet in some areas w/ the HRRR showing a 5.93" max just SW of DC. RRFS is similar to the HRRR. just not as high w/ the QPF maxes, but the point is the atmosphere is primed to big rains. A full-latitude, positively-titled trough to our W w/ broad SW flow over us should easily support some big QPF. Showers/sct tstms already in wrn VA and it all slowly moves E during the day, continuing into early Mon AM. Svr risk is marginal. Some supercell structures could be supported for short times. 01/18z ECMWF gives SHRA/TSRA every day through Thu. Nothing stands out for sig svr, just persistent, moist SW cyclonic flow, so lots of tstm activity.

We are spending 4 nights in a cabin near Davis, WV in a week. I know some of you have spent some time there - any trails, out of the way place we should know about? I've looked into the immediate area and well known hikes

Event total of 1.98" here. Definitely much appreciated.

Ham sandwich

Just got dumped on for 30 seconds haha this is amazing. Didnt put a dent in the fire duh.