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perfect for more school closures! LOL

deflect deflect defect

I don't know how to answer this in a simple way so bear with me. The A/B thing is overly simplistic and becomes complicated when you apply the more messy but real parameters of storms. Originally Miller only had his two A/B types but they have since added a ton more to try to resolve the complexity. Originally type A was a gulf wave that rode up the east coast without any transfer. B was a west to east system that jumped to the coast and redeveloped. However, this gets messy because most gulf waves that impact up here start out with a low up west of the apps and then redevelops to the east. Is this A/B? Frankly all storms "jump". Storms don't move. The low pressure continually reforms along the path of best height falls. We say convective feedback error all the time, but convection actually can "pull" a low off its path for a short time due to the meso height falls created. So yes some storms have a more continual path than others but they all jump to some degree, making these classifications overly simplistic. Then you get into phasing. Was it a pure STJ wave moving west to east that simply jumped to the coast or was there some weaker wave that phased with a northern stream SW? How does that impact the definition? What is important to the DC/Baltimore area is not so much "did the storm redevelop or jump" but where the jump happens and how mature the system is and its moisture source. The problem here is the main energy for the storm was a northern stream wave diving southeast that bombed and phased with a very very very weak pacific wave that split off and ejected from the retrograding trough out west. There was not a good moisture feed with the original pacific mid latitude wave and so the system had very little going on until it was captured and phased with the more energetic northern stream system diving in. This is not ideal for our area. Forget the A/B thing, what we need is a healthier wave with better moisture source coming at us from the west that jumps to the coast south of our latitude. Feb 2003. Feb 9 2010. We can do just fine with a transfer system if the wave has a good moisture source and is developing before it gets to our longitude/latitude. We will not if we are waiting on some northern stream wave to bomb out and capture and explode a weak wave just as it gets to us. That almost never works here. There was one in Feb 1996 that worked out...but that's about it. I can't think of any other examples where we had some NS system diving in from the NW waiting to bomb a virtually non existent wave just off our coast and we got into the CCB associated flush hit zone. It always ends up being NJ northeast thing. I called this a miller b because of the transfer and the fact the primary energy was that NS wave. It definitely was not a miller A and honestly I have not kept up with all the various additional definitions they've since added to try to better resolve this debate and I don't care to because it's silly. All storms jump. Ones that have to cross the mountains just have a more pronounced jump because they jump to where the coastal front is located. But some people have the wrong idea that the screw zone is because of this jump. It's because the storm went north of them. The mountains cause the screw zone because of the west wind creates downsloping to the south of the storm track. The appearance of the jump screwzone is more a function of the impact of the mountains. IF the track is south of your location you will usually do fine. But if it is north...yes a west wind once the low gets east of you will cut off the precip, but if the storm had not jumped and kept moving in that trajectory it would have been rain anyways, the mountains and the CAD associated is the only thing that saves places east of there in cases with a west track system...so you can't cherry pick one and ignore the other impact of those mountains. A storm tracking through the midwest going north of Winchester would have screwed them over regardless of a jump. The track is what's more important. Get that low into KY and jump it to off the VA capes and Winchester can do just fine. It tracks into OH/WV and jumps to off MD or north and...yea no good. Sorry I know this was more complicated than you wanted but it's not nearly as simple as the typical A/B debate makes it.

so not 22.5?

I've seen 72 over a foot of snow ... Granted it is rare

Have been without power in Barnstable (Cape Cod) since 4AM yesterday. Cell service has been non-existent away from Route 28. Not being able to track radar yesterday was so frustrating. 21” here in Barnstable, but measuring in a blizzard is never easy. Can’t wait to chow down on +50 pages of event observations tonight.

What’s the deal with nearly no snow on anyone’s roof? Over 2’ and it seems to have disappeared fast

Or a wind-scoured valley, like our stake in the April 1982 blizzard at Fort Kent. 4/6: 24 0 T T 27" 4/7: 17 10 1.10" 15.0" 26" Wind NW 35G60, vis near zero 4/8: 23 13 0.14" 2.0" 25" Wind NW 20G40 I doubt there was much melting, but 15-20 feet either side of the stake there were 6-foot drifts.

It would rank as the 15th warmest November on record.

Yeah fluff bombs like Jan 7th 2022 and Feb 7th 2021 with virtually no wind, short 6-10hr duration are the best for getting nice uniform snowfall totals. Events like these are a nightmare. And even worse 3 day events like Mar 2001.

Exactly....agree. DT was breaking my balls on Facebook......dude always makes excuses when he busts..."The data changed"....love that one. Like...WTF is a forecast for if you can anticipate late trends and know when the data is BS?? He always used that excuse.

It’s an A in my book. Prolonged cold since even December, snow on the ground consistently for at least a month plus, two 12+ inches snowstorms. For coastal CT that’s about all you could ask for. Having said that I’m over the cold. If it’s gonna be cold then at least snow. Otherwise let’s just torch lol

22 for Gloucester Been some kind of stretch.

We’re not plowed, but I have power. Also have a big lifted truck for such occasions where I can drive around with an open beer can and get around wherever I want.[emoji23] .

These events are typically garbage east of the spine of ORH hills. Prob C-1” here…maybe 2” if lucky.

I'm glad we don't have to talk about that anymore lol

Yeah the day before I thought it was fine. Maybe in the finals hours leading into the event I would’ve gone a little more conservative on the northern parts, but overall it was a tough forecast. You can’t kick yourself too much when it trends like 75-100 miles SE in the final 6-10 hours.

I wouldn’t call your forecast shitty. It was just a bit north of where the goods really happened. Don’t beat yourself up.

In case you didn’t see from the other thread

Fatigue and time constraints absolutely play a role. It's why I'm not particularly active anymore blogging unless there is a big event. I have to do forecasts for all over the country and when its crazy I am so exhausted I don't have the time or energy to put the focus and detail I would like into the maps/blogs I post...it kind of sucks. This is why I am going to transition to doing videos instead. I suck with technology but I'm slowly getting there. I went to bed around 7:30 Sunday night and woke up just before 3:00. One look outside and I knew I was totally screwed but I'll say, it did bring me joy and some sense of peace reading the accounts from others who got into the goods.

True...I couldn't pull it off this storm I had to average out the drifts.

Had a real estate agent in one of the local Facebook groups who has clients wanting to buy into the town, posted saying that this is a great time to move somewhere warm and if you're looking to sell to reach out. Thought it was clever marketing

Prob would’ve been closer to 43-45” or so in clearing because once you are getting 15”+ totals in a 6 hour period like they were, the compaction is already getting baked in to an extent. Also, the snow there wasn’t particularly fluffy for a chunk of the storm. I feel like the biggest discrepancies happen in less windy storms with excellent snow growth and middle type totals. Like that 10-20” range over 18 hours. Or…say you get a very long duration event like ‘78 or Feb ‘69…then you can start adding up those small differences every 6 hours.

Great right when the need to make school decisions lol .

Probably the best consensus at this range all season for at least a measurable event+.