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0.00 of rain. Tree line behind my house is fully into Fall mode. Getting some leaves changing.

Unbelievable. This pattern this whole summer has been insane. Targeting the same locations over and over and over again! Most frustrating weather season in memory

Besides the overall NAM Nest struggles this summer that you've documented, this looks to be a classic case of the NAM being too slow with the system, causing it to arrive at a very unfavorable time. Its timing is a clear outlier for now.

Thanks Don ( and forward TheClimateChanger ) What's disturbing about these kind of graphical results - which an observant sort may have noted over the years, they are not linearly rising, rather exponential - is that even if humanity's contribution to climate change were unrealistically ( impossible hypothetic state) suspended all at once, there seems to be a forgotten realization: The damage caused won't actually fully register for a number of decades. People don't realize just how dire this situation has become. The 2023 spring's ~ 1/2 a whole deg C leap in global wholesale systemic temperature, spanning mere months, evinces that there is a lag in the realization. People just stared at it. Moreover, the portions that are realized, ... are not always "catching up" in a kind, gentle administration. That proves they are unpredictable - otherwise, machine and man would have had a fucking clue that phenomenon was going to occur at all. That singular event should be vastly more alarming than humanity seems to have registered - evidenced be reactions et al. You just succeeded in moving an entire planetary system, a whole planet, ~ to 4 orders of magnitude more than the entire nuclear amament's thermal generation capacity. And it really collective sentiment reflection argues that the en masse either doesn't respect, or doesn't dimensionalize that significance for what it is - failing to do so... Either way, "life can't morally just go on as usual, yet it does without the necessary imperative in reproach. So what happens over the next decade(s)? Humanity only sees the weather of the present era ... There's an overwhelming tendency to recency bias there. There's a stark failure to extrapolate/visualize what this sort of future will bring because ... as an aside, despite our innovation capacity, that capacity doesn't extend nearly as far into the realm of consequence. In fact, the reaction appears to be entirely guided by what can be actually seen - so is entirely recency bias. Humans won't act with any sense of imperative until that threat is appealing. Meanwhile, continuing to add to a system that has a built in time delay, because the oceans are 90% absorbing of the thermal imbalance created by the shock C02 and other green house gasses the last 300 years of human activity has fluxed into the planetary system. Thereof is a calculation where that storage takes another 50+ years to recursively then find the longer term thermal equilibrium, in a truer ocean-atmospheric coupled state. One has to think of this as a built-in 'getting worse' factor - a scalar extent of which is completely unknown. But the specters of the last decade as any indicator? ...mm We can think of extrapolation thermal curves based upon varying exponentials... but, try extrapolating "phenomenological and/or consequence curves" themselves. None of which takes into consideration the "synergistic products" along the way.. Ironically, I happened across this article on Phys.org, "Future catastrophic weather could be 'far worse' than history suggests" ( https://phys.org/news/2026-09-future-catastrophic-weather-worse-history.html ) ..perhaps apropos

The other site shows -.41 as of 9/10. Still a rise, but not that dramatic.

No reason to think this won’t follow the season long trend of SW CT to NJ for big amounts. Probably a fairly narrow zone

The U.S. was fortunate that none of our regions experienced an extreme as high as France did. The Southwest finished their warmest summer at +3.5° and Colorado +3.4 against the warmest 1991-2020 normals. France finished at +6.4 and was their warmest summer. So they nearly doubled the departures experienced in our warmest regions. This is why they had such a large disruption to their agriculture industry. The warmest extremes relative to historic averages over the last decade in the CONUS have been focused in the winter and early spring rather than the summers.

Thanks Blizz. Look forward to it as well.

12z is wet

No complaints with today. Pretty sweet.

0.60” here

"The long-duration warmth in Colorado continued in August 2026, which was the hottest August on record statewide. The entire state was warmer than average, and the Front Range, mountains, and western slope all had their warmest August on record. It was the third record-breaking month of 2026 so far, with February and March also being the warmest on record. It was the 15th consecutive month of above-average temperatures in Colorado" https://climate.colostate.edu/monthly_summary.html

I don't remember many posts from 20 hears ago, save one. It was fall of 2005, when you said someone could get their average season total in one single storm that year, in an otherwise poor winter. NYC got a 27” blizzard, the Valentine’s Day storm. It was the single greatest call in the history of the boards and I defy anyone to show me an example proving otherwise. You are the EF Hutton of American WX (eastern back then?).

*NAM nest not included lol

Morning CAMs suggest a heavy rainfall threat Saturday evening (timing unsurprisingly still somewhat in doubt). Good signal for convection spreading east ahead of a shortwave into an axis of very high PWs and some instability.

This will be a good thread for things we can see from our mid-latitude region. For the Northern Lights, New England usually has a good discussion. For here, let this be the place for flybys, astronomical events, the night sky, photography, and the occasional comet. Now there is some guess-casting, ha!

Seems bullish. We'll see

September 11 1980: 3.35 inches of rain fall in St. Cloud. 1942: A line of thunderstorms races across Minnesota at 70 mph, producing severe winds that would destroy 651 barns in a 30 mile wide, 180 mile long path. 1931: The daytime high in St. Cloud was 96 degrees. 1931: Summer still has its grip on Minnesota, with a high of 111 degrees at Beardsley. 1900: The soggy remains of the Galveston Hurricane bring 6.65 inches of rain to St. Paul over two days. 1807: Thick smoky weather is noted at Pembina. For Friday, September 11, 2026 1949 - An early snowstorm brought 7.5 inches to Helena MT. In Maine, a storm drenched New Brunswick with 8.05 inches of rain in 24 hours, a state record. (The Weather Channel) 1961 - Very large and slow moving Hurricane Carla made landfall near Port Lavaca TX. Carla battered the central Texas coast with wind gusts to 175 mph, and up to 16 inches of rain, and spawned a vicious tornado which swept across Galveston Island killing eight persons. The hurricane claimed 45 lives, and caused 300 million dollars damage. The remnants of Carla produced heavy rain in the Lower Missouri Valley and southern sections of the Upper Great Lakes Region. (David Ludlum) (Storm Data) 1976 - Up to five inches of rain brought walls of water and millions of tons of debris into Bullhead City AZ via washes from elevations above 3000 feet. Flooding caused more than three million dollars damage. Chasms up to forty feet deep were cut across some roads. (The Weather Channel) 1986 - Thunderstorms caused flash flooding and subsequent river flooding in central Lower Michigan. Up to 14 inches of rain fell in a 72 hour period, and flooding caused 400 million dollars damage. (Storm Data) 1987 - Late afternoon and evening thunderstorms produced large hail and damaging winds in Texas, and spawned three tornadoes. Thunderstorm winds gusted to 70 mph at Goodnight TX. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1988 - Snow blanketed parts of the Central Rocky Mountain Region and the Central Plateau, with ten inches reported at Mount Evans in Colorado. Smoke from forest fires in the northwestern U.S. reached Pennsylvania and New York State. Hurricane Gilbert, moving westward over the Carribean, was packing winds of 100 mph by the end of the day. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1989 - Nine cities in the north central U.S. reported record low temperatures for the date, including Havre MT with a reading of 23 degrees. Livingston MT and West Yellowstone MT tied for honors as the cold spot in the nation with morning lows of 17 degrees. Thunderstorms produced hail over the Sierra Nevada Range of California, with two inches reported on the ground near Donner Summit. The hail made roads very slick, resulting in a twenty car accident. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) Observances: 11 Fri National 401(k) Day (Note: I rename it "Lose most, if not all, your retirement in a crash day" Day ) 11 Fri National Make Your Bed Day (Note: NOPE ! LOL) 11 Fri Rosh Hashanah 11 Fri National Hot Cross Bun Day 11 Fri Patriot Day 11 Fri Libraries Remember Day 11 Fri No News is Good News Day

I believe it will be location bound. From I25 east may be normal to slightly above, while the central and southern mountains may end up with a much above normal snowpack. But all in all, very likely a big improvement over last season.

MDT is 6.15” below normal rain for the year.

Ya, but it is looking more and more likely that a 2-4" stripe of heavy rain will affect SNE first half Sunday