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Looks fake

Lol. I was just sitting here wondering what our weather would be like if the mountains weren't there...

In case this wasn’t posted earluer, just cane across this on Facebook. Flash freeze morning down in portland. https://www.facebook.com/share/r/1BNYbj1hgA/?mibextid=wwXIfr

I vote we blow up the mountains.

Despite the change on the 18Z runs the ingredients for this are still in no man’s land. This was stated by someone on the SNE forum too. I think this will change about two times over in the next 36-48 hours. There is even a risk for this thing to be a rainer honestly given the setup but I’d still lean towards a miss being the more likely fail

Ehhh just draw a second line on your Covid test and c'mon out.

Nam holds together a little better but loses alot of juice coming over the mountains. Hopefully we can beef this thing up a bit.

PWM with a -11.1°F departure is impressive for early december.

Net positive up there for you.

It looks like the Winter Weather Advisories in this area start up at 7:00 A.M. tomorrow, and the forecast here in the valley suggests accumulations in the 3-6” range. That seems to line up well with the BTV NWS Event Total Snow Accumulation map through Thursday morning. The forecast also calls for a few inches of snow beyond that period, which is probably covered in the longer period map that mreaves posted.

We live in the mid Atlantic. We all know we won’t see wall to wall cold from November onward. But there has also been a very clear pattern over the past few months of models vastly overdoing long range warmups. Modeled warm ups end up being either muted or are not occurring. We will 100% see periods of warmer weather in a niña, but I’m gonna take the under on it being 70+ on Christmas. This winter is different than the previous few in that there’s a ton of cold air nearby in Canada with a healthy snowpack to our north. Even the more relaxed zonal flow some models are hinting in a few weeks at shouldn’t be torchy. May end up just having normal temps. MJO in phase 8 and it’s 70+? Call me skeptical. There will likely be a reload of the pattern around Christmas. It will probably hit 50+ some days. But idk about 70+ or this winter being over after December like some are suggesting

Let he who hath without snow cast the first snowball

Haven't seen him since he was 5 posted

Maybe the inevitable bump north will for once help the cause

He's Santa now

We'll see how this plays out, we're going to be close to the edge at the house for sure versus the groomer barn which should do better

I've watched Worcester to Boston cash in many times while I get flurries. I don't get real angry but I also don't get real sympathetic either.

Anafront watch.....The 18z GEFS has 14 members with it. Some fronts have already passed through on this slide. Some are in process. Some are yet to come....

That makes sense, thanks for catching that.

VA Beach is tough to get snow, I got 6 inches with this storm on the peninsula. The southside was 1-2 inches. Norfolk did get a 12 inch snowstorm last year. VA Beach was like 10. I was a bit north and got 8.5. I just remembered, January 2018 VA Beach got a full scaled blizzard. 12 inches and 50 MPH winds. January 2018 North American blizzard - Wikipedia

I’ve learned to embrace the primal weenie within. Unleash when necessary lol

I think we'll be fine. Models are all over the place so I'm not calling anything. So far it's been an OK December RT 2 North.

It's the new paradigm, and the cure for pyscho-babble.

I think we're riding the razors edge at the house, groomer garage should do 2-3 inches better I think based on what I've seen, there is a change 6 miles north of here where they split the county for the NWS purposes and it's almost spot on overall as there is a few hundred feet gain in elevation between here and there.