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It definitely will. Just a question of when. My wag is September-October.

I think you know the answer . That doesn’t wash Fert in

I am 80% sure that you’ll have at least a quarter inch. and if it doesn’t rain, why can’t you just use your sprinklers?

Nothing special at all

We cloud. So much for a hot sunny Saturday

Gotta say...the RRFS has been quite consistent in its evolution. It's really liked up around the Albany area

I don’t think the new EURO ONI/RONI projections are far-fetched at all given the massive SOI crash, the continued big WWBs, the new DWKW, the record warm subsurface, +IOD development, ++PMM, OLR anomalies, MJO/ERW constructive interference and the extremely rapid surface warming that has started. This event is showing signs of going into a “runaway” Bjerknes feedback loop. I would not be surprised if we are into a super El Niño by August

Will be driving back from Ephrata around 6 pm. Should be interesting.

A bit of a change in plans. Going to go to Bennington, VT and start from there. There are some decent viewing spots. Secondary area (which would be only 30 minutes away) is Wigwam Western Summit in North Adams which looks like it has a tremendous view to the west. Really tough part about today is the mesoscale aspect of how this unfolds. The greatest potential seems to be well down into PA but given its a very late PM threat its probably not worth the 4+ hour drive.

i know right, seasonal snowfall here in one storm. 44.7" in New Haven, 50 in Middletown. And considering the date im willing to bet most of these are probably snow depth or 24hr totals combined.

Summers just the best.. look at all that beautiful pollen..

Already 78 here at 9am. Going to be a special day... Another hot afternoon ahead, H850 temps progged +16C to +18C, allow surface temperatures to climb well into the 80s for most and lower 90s in the urban NYC metro and NE NJ corridor

I got some meger rain last evening 3mm instead of 8, at one point WUN had me at 27mm/1" which I waved off. Nil overnight but any rain has been removed for today just overcast til 2pm then partly sunny for the rest of the weekend! For a while it showed a washout weekend like 2 weeks ago now just a blip. A dream pattern is shortly setting up with heat and 2 days of storm potential mid-week. Isolated storms so far with 8mm of rain mid-Tues.

Yes

Don't think I saw a single black fly. Not many mosquitoes and the deer flies haven't started yet. I'm sure I'll pay for it somehow.

Can you guarantee 100% it hits enough to wash it in?

I would. Enjoy the storms after 6

The ongoing and strengthening El Niño is already contributing to record warm ocean temperatures. Global sea surface temperatures are currently well ahead of those during the development of the 2023-24 El Niño.

They'll just blame the Nino or use some other BS. These idiots can't be reasoned with.

That's going to change 2nd half of June. Ensembles are showing a much wetter pattern as early effects of the strong Nino begin to take hold.

Low of 65, as the humidity creeps up. Already up to 78. Some nice mid summer-like weather ahead. Onward.

Can’t even drop fert with no rain now. Blows

Just over 6" total here for MAM. Something needs to change.