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I’ll take the over on no development after Gabby lol. You could see the tropical Atlantic being a dead zone again from a mile away—the real question is what happens when climo shifts to the Caribbean and homebrew regions. Those areas have been warmer with more instability and less shear all season. If their peak season is a bust, then we’ll be in bust territory.

Low of 59. Should be a glorious weekend.

65 / 44 clear . Sunny today cooler low - upper 70s in the warmest areas. A bit cooler tomorrow. Overall warmer and perhaps a period of rain as another low cuts off under the ridge between Tue - Sat next week. Will see where it does and which areas get some rains.

Another season where many forecasters had the east coast above average chance with alot of storms. Just like winter outlooks, take the tropical outlooks with a grain of salt or maybe not do outlooks way far in advance.

Will my next measurable precip be snow?

September 20 Euro and GFS runs: no tropical development through October 6. lol at all the people saying the lid was gonna come off in the second half of September and early October. After Gabrielle that MDR is closed for the season, could still see a Caribbean/Gulf storm in October but this season will be a massive forecast bust.

I got 8" in that storm. I remember going down to town and it was just drizzling when I drove home gradually snow appeared and then about a quarter of a mile from the house everything was covered as I came around the last bend.

31.8° at 1P1. Didn’t expect them to do it the first night.

Mins

Streets were damp in Vienna when I woke up, but neither IAD nor DCA reported any rain.

43 here in the Berkshires this AM, no complaints here. Currently 60F back in HPN.

42.5° Not too bad until I went outside and felt the breeze accompanying it.

34° for the low. Frost on the car tops. Looks like MVL is 32°

What, a 30 to 40% chance of showers doesn’t get your heart pumping?

Tuesday looks warm. The rest of the week looks meh

The Baltic Sea says hi. Record highs the last two days here. Heading to Stockholm tomorrow where it’ll be 20-30 degrees cooler thank goodness.

Thankfully stayed in the 50’s here

36.5F at a PWS a mile from me. My low was only 41, but that I think is my seasonal low. nice morning

Yeah, from the 60s to early 90s within a few inches of 25” was very common. There were a few seasons of near 30”+ and a few 20” and below. So a very balanced snowfall pattern during that stable colder era. The snowfall became all or nothing since 93-94. Most seasons have been over 30” or under 20” since then as the winters have continued to warm. The storm tracks remained cold enough to our south for many 30”+ seasons from 09-10 to 17-18. The warmer storm tracks since 18-19 have resulted in most seasons ending up with under 20” of snow. So it has been challenging to get a 30”+ season. Plus NYC hasn’t had a season near 25” since 12-13. So losing the higher end 30”+ seasons and continuing the decline in the near 25” seasons has resulted in the under 20” season becoming most common. NYC snowfall seasons near 25” 12-13….26.1” 08-09…27.6” 92-93…24.5” 90-91….24.9” 86-87….23.1” 84-85….24.1” 83-84….25.4” 82-83…..27.2” 81-82……24.6” 78-79…..29.4” 76-77…..24.5” 73-74…..23.5” 71-72…..22.9” 69-70….25.6” 64-65….24.4”

Looks fairly warm right thru Helloween .

probably some folks turning theirs on this morning with those lows

34/30 at MVL Neighbor’s PWS is 33/32. Sub-freezing at SLK, HIE, BML.

not really the air was dry and there was a northerly breeze..

If the recurve is far enough south this storm could stay tropical longer, possibly threatening the Azores. I would rule out land impacts just yet