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still waiting for yesterdays "rains" and "nor'easter"

tough being correct

Tuesday through Thursday midday look phenomenal after that TBD... The front Thursday PM may try to stall somewhere in New England

The 13-14 analog wasn't even a good match for this past winter. The 12-13 analog was a much better match, as that was a deep -PDO that peaked in the fall. This past winter was colder than 12-13, and had comparable snow totals in most areas, in the Eastern US. Those predicting a 13-14 analog for 24-25 were just grasping on straws. In 13-14, you still had a -PDO, but it was generally trending towards 0, which was what we have this year. (And of course, the WPAC jet cooperated, unlike in most of 11-12 and 12-13.) If we can have a similar WPAC jet to 13-14, I think a cold and snowy winter in 25-26 is pretty much locked in.

Do you still have power?

We are so close now you can feel it, smell, it is literally on the doorstep . Just one more knock and the door opens

It looked like it on satellite, so I checked out LWX and they mentioned it as a possibility. Not sure if the current sat loop is showing smoke or high clouds or a mix of both, but HRRR vertically integrate smoke loop shows a swath of it to the west.

The year of the incessant West wind continues. Easily had some 40mph gusts on the beach yesterday. Full on sand storm. People would walk down towards the water and quickly turn around after a couple minutes of sand blasting.

Been a tough warm season for him.

Tough Saturday in Tolland. You just hate to see it when someone has high expectations.

May was a rare month for us when we were all over +5 around the 20th and only a little above average to close out the month. EWR….+1.0° NYC….-0.9° LGA…..-0.5° HPN….+0.7 BDR….+0.2 JFK…..+2.1° ISP…...+1.9° AVG…..+0.7°

Was just about to say that. Looks like smoke aloft this morning.

Yea, this weather ain’t it. And it appears we’re going to be contending with Canadian wildfire smoke…at least at the upper levels.

When electricity was relatively cheap...

Maybe you've already done this . . . I wiggle the inner tube until it's right at 1.00" then dump it. Next is placing the funnel onto the inner tube and pour some of the outer tube contents - if there's more than 1" one must remember (or record) partial fills of the inner (I try to stop the pour in the 0.8-0.9" range) remember/record/dump then repeat until the outer tube is empty. Can be 'interesting' if there's several inches in the 4" tube and it's still pouring. In that case I take out a small pail, dump both tubes into it and head inside with the inner tube to measure in peace.

The final AI verification for May:

Long range turning to shit again, why is it so hard for these models to jump into summer in New England..

The lack of 90° heat this May in the past for the warm spots like Newark has resulted in summers which haven’t exceeded 40 days going over 90°. So this early spring signal would suggest that top tier years for 90° days like 2010 and 2022 when Newark approached 50 days reaching 90° won’t occur this summer. So we are probably in for more onshore flow again this summer with areas west of NYC seeing the strongest heat and cooling sea breezes further east. The only year in the past to reach 40 days with no 90° temperatures at Newark in May was 1983. But that was a much different super El Niño pattern. It was also in the more westerly flow era. These days we have been seeing more summer onshore flow with the elongated ridge to the north and east of New England. All years with no 90° heat at Newark in May Annual and Monthly Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ following no 90° days in May Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 2025 0 0 M M M M M 0 2020 0 0 5 17 9 0 0 31 2014 0 0 2 8 2 3 0 15 2009 3 0 0 1 10 0 0 14 2008 0 0 6 11 2 3 0 22 2005 0 0 10 11 12 4 0 37 2003 0 0 5 8 7 0 0 20 1997 0 0 7 10 3 0 0 20 1990 2 0 5 9 9 1 0 26 1989 0 0 4 12 8 3 0 27 1984 0 0 8 6 8 0 0 22 1983 0 0 7 15 11 7 0 40 1982 0 0 1 10 1 0 0 12 1976 2 0 7 2 4 0 0 15 1973 0 0 5 9 12 5 0 31 1972 0 0 0 16 4 1 0 21 1971 0 0 6 7 7 2 0 22 1968 0 0 4 9 9 1 0 23 1967 0 0 5 1 1 0 0 7 1966 0 0 10 14 8 1 0 33 1963 0 0 6 11 3 0 0 20 1961 0 0 4 13 8 9 0 34 1960 1 0 3 2 8 1 0 15 1958 0 0 2 11 6 2 0 21 1954 0 0 5 10 3 0 0 18 1952 0 0 8 17 2 4 0 31 1950 0 0 8 6 3 1 0 18 1946 0 0 5 5 2 0 0 12 1940 0 0 2 11 1 1 0 15 1938 0 0 4 4 9 0 1 18 1935 0 0 1 11 2 0 0 14 Years at Newark with 40-50 days reaching 90° with multiple days over 90° in May Monthly Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ from April to October Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 2010 1 2 13 21 11 6 0 54 2022 0 4 6 20 18 1 0 49 1993 0 3 9 22 11 4 0 49 1988 0 1 10 15 17 0 0 43 2021 0 4 12 11 13 1 0 41 2002 4 1 5 16 14 1 0 41 1991 0 8 10 9 12 2 0 41 2016 0 3 3 16 13 5 0 40 1983 0 0 7 15 11 7 0 40 1959 0 5 5 8 15 6 1 40 Recent years with 50 days reaching 90° at Newark had demonstrated the major heat potential in May. This year Newark only made it to 88° in May. 2022 made it to 98° in May. 2010 reached 95° in May Monthly Highest Max Temperature for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 2025 87 88 M M M M M 88 April to October Monthly Highest Max Temperature for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 2022 88 98 96 102 101 93 76 102 April to October Monthly Highest Max Temperature for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 2010 92 95 98 103 98 98 79 103

PRECIPITATION (IN) YESTERDAY 0.21 amusingly bad, at least fact check first lol

May was essentially a tale of two months in NYC. The first half was very warm. The second half was very cool.

What a storm yesterday! Record low pressure, 1 to 3 in of rain, power outages. Some were calling for Stein Lolz!

The climate across the globe has significantly shifted from the mean state we were in back in 09-10. The base state was fairly stable from the late 1800s into the early 1980s. The first temperature jump out of this much colder era occurred in 82-83. So none of the winters which have occurred since then have been as cold as the late 1970s. We saw a much more significant rise in temperatures during 97-98. So we have not experienced a winter as cold as we saw from the mid 80s up to 1994. Plus this is when the all or nothing snowfall pattern began around NYC Metro after being stable from the early 60s to early 90s with many moderate snowfall seasons in the middle of the range. It’s also why the 95-96 snowfall season hasn’t been rivaled around NYC. The next significant rise in global temperatures occurred in 15-16. This is why we haven’t seen a repeat of winters like 09-10, 10-11, 13-14, and 14-15 since then. The planet has recently experienced a much greater rise in temperatures to a new higher baseline with the 23-24 winter. So this is why we were not able to see a repeat this past 24-25 winter of the 13-14 analog which was being discussed back in December. This new warmer base state was significantly higher than the 13-14 winter. The only way for the climate system to return to a colder baseline would be through major to historic volcanism. But unfortunately such an event in this modern world would be extremely disruptive. Absent any major volcanism, we will just keep shifting the baselines higher with every new periodic global temperature jump. So a whole series of winter analogs prior to 15-16 become out of reach for the new warmer baseline.

Meant to add Cansips' Enso forecast. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cansips&region=global&pkg=ssta_noice&runtime=2025060100&fh=0

Fwiw, new Cansips temp forecast for winter looks a lot like it's forecast for last winter, maybe colder for midwest. Has a cool summer in the central US for once. Here's the link for conus temps starting in June. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cansips&region=us&pkg=T2ma&runtime=2025060100&fh=0