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NAM popping a low over Arkansas at hour 33. Are we about to get NAMed?

How good are the models at accounting for virga in the total QPF output? On the western side we'll be fighting for every tenth of an inch we can get so that will matter.

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That's because it is this weekends systems snow map

18z running now

One interesting thing to note over the past 3 runs in MBY the GFS AI and EURO AI have only made small adjustments in QPF in the amount of .05-.08 either up or down. Where-as the OP EURO and OP GFS over the past three runs have had more wild swings in QPF of .22"-.27". When looking at the ensembles for both EURO and EURO AI as well as GFS those QPF swings are much smoother and the difference is not as much of a wild swing as the OPs have been showing from time to time. Thinking about the models this way and really digging into the ensembles has helped me to not ride each single OP run for the potential wild ups and downs that it may show. All and all after looking at many different averages and taking the fairly rock steady ensembles into account I am starting to feel confident that my area will see somewhere between .35"-.45" of precip and factoring in about a 16-17:1 ratio, amounts should be in the range of 6"-7" range.

That map is from todays storm, not Feb. 4

Billy Preston "Nothing from nothing leaves nothing." 0 - 0 = 0 0 x 0 = 0 0 / 0 = 0 0 + 0 = 0

I’ve been saying this for years…everybody assumes, and all the time I might add, that the modeling has a perfect handle on all the players. If we were 36-48 hrs out, then that’s a little different story. But at 4 days it’s comical. And these people do this every single storm when it’s close. Folks never seem to learn. Send the hurricane hunters out, and get some good sampling into the models, and if it’s still the same, then we can write it off for good. The HH did that last week, and it changed everything. Need to do it again. As I said yesterday, OTS is a bigger concern than an occluded storm…at least for CT anyway. Further north maybe a different story. But I’ll take my chances with a powerhouse that’s peaked a little south/southwest of me.

It looks like this weekend's storm has the same mechanisms occurring as that one, like ULL?

Except it hasn’t

Nice catch

What time will we see the next NAM run?

Depends on how gun shy they are from last weekend. I lived through February 2013 (Nemo) in long Island. I will never forget that deformation band.. While that's extreme, this could definitely rival some of the deform bands I lived through in the NE Reminds me of dark knight storm I vote for @lilj4425 It was HM, not him that has the big daddy hat right? I sometimes wonder if Snobal from the accuwx forums is able to control important model runs

I am just saying even 4 or 5 inches is certainly viable EOR

Most certainly for you! You are definitely in a good spot right now.

GSP mentioned they were considering hoisting a Watch this afternoon, but opted to hold off until the overnight guidance came in. Seems to be a Storm totals concern more than the need a Watch/Warning issue.

I would say to trust any deterministic model in this setup is folly. Ensembles until 48 hours out. Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

This is giving me flashbacks to Hurricane Lee and Hurricane Melissa. Models shifting away farther and farther from shore, every minor West shift a sign things would turn around and they never did. It's tough being a tropical weather weenie in New England.

It's Wednesday?

Lol you played catch up last storm like every biggie we have ever had. Stay conservative your whole life Ryan its the easy way out. Quickly saturated

last time NAM scored a big one was January 23rd 2016 blizzard, can it do it again? NAM gets into range in the next run let's see how it does! Feen

last time NAM scored a big one was January 23rd 2016 blizzard, can it do it again? NAM gets into range in the next run let's see how it does!

The EPS, which would normally be less qpf than an OP, was more in-line with the AI Euro and had a larger precip field for Tennessee with .1 back towards Cookeville.

Like last time when. This last storm we just had? Not sure what you're getting at.... Give me a good reason why I shouldn't be giving up on this storm.