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AI has a few long-range Steinbusters as well

The numbers have been quality controlled. The raw observations do show 103°F but are now shown as missing as they failed the quality control test. Either way, it's a bogus reading that would require 110°F+ on the coastal Plain to be plausible. Mount Pocono was certainly not one of the warmest locations in the State of Pennsylvania, it's invariably one of the coldest due to its elevation.

If you read on, I noted that. It's come into much better agreement, though.

49.6 early this morning

46.6F at the Lancaster homestead this morning.

It's about 35°W with the warmest anomalies. 110°W on the Euro v. 145°W on the CANSIPS. Not trivial.

Sandistril was the culprit on 2 of them I believe. He was pretty bad last year after good rookie season.

Something tells me he put his weenie balls deep into that d12 00z euro solution

Good point, I hadn't noticed that...it's actually like +4F.

Low of 64.9 and with the lower humidity it finally feels somewhat fall like

Did you stumble upon a model? That's actually correct.

I don't have an issue with the possibility of an awful winter, sure, but he used the word "never"....sorry, but that is an impossibility around here. Terd season, okay...but snowless? Nope-

September 15 1939: Minneapolis experiences a daily record high of 98. 1916: St. Paul receives their earliest recorded snowfall. For Tuesday, September 15, 2026 1752 - A great hurricane produced a tide along the South Carolina coast which nearly inundated downtown Charleston. However, just before the tide reached the city, a shift in the wind caused the water level to drop five feet in ten minutes. (David Ludlum) 1910 - Rains of .27 inch on the 14th and .73 inch on the 15th were the earliest and heaviest of record for Fresno CA, which, along with much of California, experiences a ""rainy season"" in the winter. (The Weather Channel) 1939 - The temperature at Detroit MI soared to 100 degrees to establish a record for September. (The Weather Channel) 1982 - A snowstorm over Wyoming produced 16.9 inches at Lander to esablish a 24 hour record for September for that location. (13th-15th) (The Weather Channel) 1987 - The first snow of the season was observed at the Winter Park ski resort in Colorado early in the day. Eight inches of snow was reported at the Summit of Mount Evans, along with wind gusts to 61 mph. Early morning thunderstorms in Texas produced up to six inches of rain in Real County. Two occupants of a car drowned, and the other six occupants were injured as it was swept into Camp Wood Creek, near the town of Leakey. Late afternoon and evening thunderstorms produced severe weather in central and northeastern Oklahoma. Wind gusts to 70 mph and golf ball size hail were reported around Oklahoma City OK. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1988 - Thunderstorms brought much needed rains to parts of the central U.S. Rainfall totals of 2.87 inches at Sioux City IA and 4.59 inches at Kansas City MO were records for the date. Up to eight inches of rain deluged the Kansas City area, nearly as much rain as was received the previous eight months. Hurricane Gilbert, meanwhile, slowly churned toward the U.S./Mexican border. (The National Weather Summary) 1989 - Showers and thunderstorms produced locally heavy rain in the Central Appalachians. Virgie VA received 2.60 inches of rain during the evening hours, and Bartlett TN was deluged with 2.75 inches in just ninety minutes. Heavy rain left five cars partially submerged in high water in a parking lot at Bulls Gap TN. Thunderstorms over central North Carolina drenched the Fayetteville area with four to eight inches of rain between 8 PM and midnight. Flash flooding, and a couple of dam breaks, claimed the lives of two persons, and caused ten million dollars damage. Hugo, churning over the waters of the Carribean, strengthened to the category of a very dangerous hurricane, packing winds of 150 mph. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary) Observances: 15 Tue Get Ready Day 15 Tue National Online Learning Day 15 Tue National Linguine Day 15 Tue National IT Professionals Day 15 Tue World Lymphoma Awareness Day 15 Tue National Double Cheeseburger Day 15 Tue International Day of Democracy 15 Tue International Dot Day 15 Tue National Hispanic Heritage Month 15 Tue Start of Hispanic Heritage Month (Until October 15) 15 Tue Butterscotch Cinnamon Pie Day 15 Tue Dot Day 15 Tue Felt Hat Day 15 Tue Make a Hat Day 15 Tue National Cheese Toast Day 15 Tue National Creme de Menthe Day 15 Tue National Custom Framing Day 15 Tue National D.A.R.E. Day 15 Tue National Google.com Day 15 Tue National Tackle Kids Cancer Day 15 Tue World Afro Day 15 Tue World Engineers Day 15 Tue Greenpeace Day

We're going to need the Icon to settle this. Lemme' take a close look with my good eye.

3 sacks was nice tho.

Latest (0Z of Sep 15th) CFSv2 AAM forecast, which is already at a very high >+3, is like yesterday progging an off the charts extreme/historic? +4+ starting by Sep 19th (earliest in the forecast I’ve ever seen) and lasting at least through Sep 24th:

Plenty of easterly flow reducing the maxes is the main reason. It will be interesting to see if we can get a tropical connection established. Since lows often develop underneath the big highs east of New England this time of year.

Looking at Mesonet sites, Bittinger way out west dropped to 41. Nice to be one of the cold spots haha

0.70" of rain yesterday. Looking at gusty winds from the W today with highs near 70. More rain coming Friday. Looks like a general 1/2-1" rainfall across NE MN. We needed that.

mm ...not intending to be involved in any back and forth. I'm not sure that's exactly impossible just hearing the immediate binary exchange there. Heh. Given the empirical setting of Earth ..., we have to objectively be open to a notion that extreme results may be preferentially warm. That almost seems passively comedic put that way... I mean, just because of the nature of having something like a "warmest ever ENSO" taking place over top a CC canvas. Perhaps trampoline is apropos. I was just mentioning to Chris over in the ENSO thread ..the synergistic product cannot really be ascertained. *However*, the probability for that sort of thing, and on which side of the mean that is more likely, can certainly be intuitive. You and I have set up some pathways to getting a snow this year. Those are still valid. I like the hangover N. Pac idea - although the recent PDO tells me the patttern biases may be changing - 'nother headache. Regardless, that's among the less likely outcomes. Given the leading and in situ circumstances the warmer one are weighted. Tough call - don't want to evacuate the probability either because patterns tend to "try" to slip or regress as a real observed phenomenon. You don't just escape and dust off hands. Doesn't work that way. So yeah... that's why I don't mind the pathway.. I could also see this year with something like a STJ that aligns farther N of canonical due to the fact that as has been papered by multiple sources...the westerly bands/jets have been moving N with the CC over recent decades. That immediately assumes a warmer southern tier.. and flooding and rains... with the band of winter shenanigans shifted

That is an awfully pathetic look. Is there a global shot for that? I wonder if much of the Arctic cold will end up being displaced on the other side of the hemisphere. Going to take some well-timed airmasses here to really have a good chance to cash in