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One thing I’ve noticed is that as much as I’ve watched these vort loops lately, those vorts near the lakes are not messing around. They’re moving substantially faster than stuff that gets strung out further south. Here today on a run, maybe gone tomorrow. One thing that might have to be watched with some of these runs that trail vorticity back towards the high plains and front range, is some mischief if one gets hung up for a bit while the more northerly parts of the shortwave move along. that could go either way of course: it outruns the cold or gets just enough space to amplify at the right time.

It kind of looks like the better snow threat (at least away from the immediate cost) is Sat the 17.

Snow level is about 2300’ currently. .

Miss! Cut! Just a bit outside! /JK

It could be a myriad of things. But also - things that are on like decadal cycles may be to blame. Consider that the modeling tends to be more stable at range for southern stream dominant systems. For many years now there has been a lot of northern stream influence - which the models objectively (not subjectively) are worse at predicting.

Icon was better but rgem was nice too 1”+

Oh ok I had no idea that the opinion was debunked. Maybe it's just the fact we had more storms back then us throwing me off . But either way thanks for the correction!

GFS loading...PBP anyone?

GFS loading...PBP anyone?

I think you mean Icon.

GFS loading...PBP anyone?

18z GFS has begun rolling. Most important run of our weenie lives.

ICON and RDPS are 1-4" for Saturday. We take.

NAM and RGEM have a 1-3” event NW of 202 as well. Would really like to at least see something, it’s been weeks since we’ve had anything wintry aside from Sunday’s graupel squalls.

I believe January 85 had a period of bitter cold. That was the year of the Reagan Inaugural. It was so cold the event had to be moved inside there were no outdoor events, including no parade. IIRC windchill was down into the -20's and highs only reached to about 10 during the daylight hours. I remember waking up 7th Avenue for 12 blocks to get to work and it was BITTER and BITING with the wind.

The low in the Lakes is the problem. It was behind the system so not sure if it sped up?

One thing I’ll add too, just based on current wx obs. How much of this stuff on radar right now is virga? IMBY I’d say 75% of radar returns have been virga or much lighter than they appeared to be. May be something to keep in mind with what the NAM is showing for later in the week

Made that drive too many damn times, including about 3 in 2025. I’d argue all the way to Savannah. You almost feel a sense of relief once you get off SC’s loud ass highway in need of a resurfacing.

definitely wasn’t saying one or the other was correct. Someone said it looked like the gfs so I had to look. Yes the ridge out west may be a smidge taller, but in the grand scheme of things, the larger scale trough was progressive and not what we would need.

Some light precipitation is possible this evening into tomorrow. Rain showers could transition to a period of light snow or flurries, especially well north and west of New York City where a light accumulation is possible. Afterward, temperatures will "step down" with highs mainly in the middle and upper 30s in New York City and lows in the lower and middle 20s. Some teens are likely outside of New York City. Flurries and perhaps a heavier snow shower are possible on Saturday and Sunday as a renewed flow of cold air moves across the region. Temperatures will remain below normal through at least the middle of next week. Arctic air could arrive early next week. After January 20th, conditions might become more favorable for both cold and snowfall, especially if the PNA remains predominantly positive, as has often occurred following the breakdown of long-duration PNA- regimes. The probability of a PNA+ regime has increased in recent days. PNA-related developments would have larger implications for snowfall. A persistently positive PNA would have above climatological risk of moderate or significant snowfalls. A mainly negative PNA would favor mainly small snowfalls. It will likely be another day or two before the guidance reaches the high-skill timeframe for teleconnection forecasts related to closing days of January. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.8°C for the week centered around January 7. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.47°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.67°C. La Niña conditions will likely continue into at least late winter. The SOI was +10.51 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.330 today. The PNA rose to +0.963, its highest value since November 2, 2025 when it stood at +1.071. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 57% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal January (1991-2020 normal). January will likely finish with a mean temperature near 33.3° (-0.4° below normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 0.7° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

Down to 40 here at the house with light rain, but the temperature is down 5 degrees the past hour. It won't be long here as well.

The data argues you are wrong. It could be that general patterns are more chaotic right now and that previously, models have KNOWN biases whereas now it's sort of just as likely to bust in any direction. But this opinion has been debunked plenty of times. The models were NOT more accurate 15 years ago.

That’s why I mentioned that earlier. Saturday night turning into the main event .Seems most likely

Rgem is gorgeous