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Biggest issue in coastal plain may be surface temps. It may be snowing but might be tough to accumulate, especially during the daytime hours. NAM 3K soundings show 33/35 right at the surface though its colder throughout the rest of the column. If we can get it a pinch colder then maybe we can sneak in an extra inch or so.

I like watching BAM’s videos for how unhinged he’s becoming.

You are now in snow hell, unless '04-'05 or '14-'15 walks through that door. Convince the wife to move back?

Those are large differences. I'm not sure whether the algorithm is faulty or their methodology is off.

how much do we tech need for it to be called a white christmas?

I'll take my Pit2 p/c. Tuesday Snow likely, mainly after 4pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 34. Calm wind becoming southeast around 5 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible. Tuesday Night Snow. Low around 21. East wind around 5 mph becoming north after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible.

thank goodness this dark day and night bs is nearly over with. up up up! Cars will be warming in a few short weeks, and up to perhaps 80F-90? by early February

I continue to have a concern about certain WxBell maps being off. I’ve discussed the CFS being wacky and mainly too cold a number of times with@donsutherland1. But I also can’t figure out why their Euro Weekly (EW) maps are always colder than the ECMWF’s own EW maps! To me it just tells me that the WB EW maps are significantly too cold, period, which remains a concern. Why are they too cold? It’s definitely not due to climo base differences because if anything the in-house uses warmer climo (last 20 years), not colder, vs WB’s 1991-2020. Warmer climo means colder in-house anomaly maps, the opposite of reality! So, that makes the discrepancy even worse! Here’s examples from today’s EWs: 1. For Jan 12-18th: ECMWF: AN ~80%, BN ~2% of US WxBell: why do they have… - AN in only ~1/3 of US vs 80% on in-house? - BN ~25% of US vs only 2% on in-house? ————- 2. For Jan 19th-25th: ECMWF: AN ~50%, BN ~ 3% of US WxBell: why do they have… - AN in only ~15% of US vs 50% on in-house? - BN ~50% of US vs only 3% on in-house?

Yes I deleted it. Drunk.

JB does have some good arguments though. TW

Map only showed through 1PM Tuesday. Back-to-Back holiday parties.

He's taking Jeff's maps commment to heart.

I'm thinking 2" as the average across I-84 - not the upper limit - but with a wide range and maybe a funky regional distribution. I wouldn't expect uniform and consistent precipitation. I would guess the precip. shield is more banded and variable with winners and losers. But it's just a guess really.

Nam shifted north

might have

I think the +TNH will run a bit into Feb before we get very mild and await the stratosphere.

Where Anthony’s post you quoted? Did he delete it?

Agreed and makes sense. February here i’m expecting canonical Nina, which is usually a mixed bag of 60+ degree torches, rain/ice/sleet/snow overrunning events as the SE ridge waxes and wanes. January colder and mostly snow.

New BAM WX video says we're back into winter by mid-January. Here were my main takeaways from this video: 1. Dec 29-31 will trend colder, like it has been for the past few days. 2. He thinks there'll be a big storm favoring NE for the first week of January; his top analogs like 1996 and 2000 3. Somewhere between the end of Dec and the start of Jan, he thinks that WWBs will happen, causing: - the death of La Nina - -EPO by early Jan, but no +PNA - MJO to move very quickly and finally get unstuck thru phases 2, 3, 4, etc., finally getting back into 7 by around Jan 15 (just in time for prime climo) 4. He likes the fact that the PV is on our side of the hemisphere, and he thinks it'll stay there 5. The models are not seeing the cold in the long-range TL;DR: BAM WX believes that there will be a prolonged period of cold and stormy weather from Jan 15 to Feb 1. The first two weeks of January will likely offer shots of cold, but with relaxations in between.

more after that

Are you thinking more than 2" here in the 84 corridor? Im thinking 2" is prob the upper limits in this area. Maybe some 3-4" amounts in the Catskills

0z NAM coming back north but was pretty far south at 18z

HRRR shows it Putnam CT to Boston this run.. it will waffle.. instead of 2-3" that screw zone will be half inch to an inch .. Also parts of SW New England may miss out in this event entirely have to watch out for that.. SW Fairfield County in particular

Considering just about all guidance has 0.2" liquid or more across NNJ and SENY and a snow-supporting model profile, those WPC snow maps look low. You would seemingly have to go against model consensus to come up with those probabilities. Or maybe they are heavily skewed towards the GEFS. Either way, the lack of granularity across our region makes it only modestly useful.