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Well they have been consistent today

Lol, lock it in!

No, because the cold air is here with snow on the ground...acts like a warm blanket for them

It's just getting more into a better range for it. Also, keep in mind, most models tend to actually underestimate QPF.

Mike Maze put out a PM update. He said snow total probabilities are dropping off on the Euro. Two bullseyes setting up.

Johnson City is 93 percent for over 4 and about 80 percent for oved 6.

Hate RGEM is trending drier each run. One trend red flag for me on the difference between snow and a solid snow.

WYFF snow totals looking very similar to WeatherNext 2

I’m really ready for the 33 degree day next Tuesday.

Still cold deep into February

18z missed RGEM

Newest NWS graphics dramatically increased snow accumulation percentages for my area. I was 22 percent for more than 2 inches last package. I'm now near 70 percent. I had a 10 percent chance of 4 inches or more, now that's 50 percent.

First time I’ve left my place since Saturday due to a cold and busy work schedule combo. Looks more like it snowed than sleet..so that’s fun. Roads are in pretty decent shape. And when the sun is out it’s still cold af, but a lot more tolerable.

Your area got nailed last February too, congrats! How rare are 12-inch snowfalls in back-to-back years there? We've gone 10 years now without one in the DC/Balt region.

Just a coastal crusher on the icon.

Sean Sublette was laid off by the paper quite a while ago. He has a consulting business now. He also does a Substack post and sends weather emails a couple of times a week. He did explore running for office but dropped out of a crowded field. I like his email and posts.

Ah... there's multiple reasons why this thing's behaving the way it is in the guidance - not one silver bullet. Having a S/W cresting the western ridge, doing so at a fast rate of speed is giving this thing on the east coast an non-linear negative interference ... ( transitive destructive - ). Some of this is going on, but not the whole story. What Brian was discussing certainly contributes, too. Then there's the convection. It occurs to me that there is an anomalously intense B-C axis in that vicinity down there. There really has to be, when there's been days of -3 SD air mass near-by a hotter than normal SW Atlantic OHE for the past 10 years. Ha. I mean Jesus... the convective potential is so extreme - if that metric were kept track of, it's probably historically volatile. Really, the expression "too much of a good thing" keeps hittin' at me. You can't exceed a threshold of potential in convection. Have you ever heard of the "K Index"? It's number that describes the general convective response once trigger has taken place. For example... in the Plains, a low K index with a very high CAPE and CIN collapse produces low counts of CB but huge super cells. If the K Index is high... the whole region erupts all at once and kills the organized super cells... etc. Something similar - this is where it's supposition but the more I look at this I suspect it to be so ... - is taking place where there is a high potential for convective response, with no inhibition... The whole region is igniting pretty far ahead of the trough... and there is so much potential due to the extremes of air mass over hot water ( relatively speaking) that the convective processing is blowing a hole in the troposphere and creating a new closed 500 surface out ahead of the real tough. That's why we are seeing this shit.. If you follow this 84 hour NAM chart back in time, you can see how the convection is evolving it's own S/W presence and then taking over... It's like a Miller B at 500 mb level.

on to Feb....

Good old subsidence from being directly under the tallest mountain range east of the Mississippi..

Nearly 75 pages on this lol....

The RGEM backed down by about .2 on snowfall across the area. 4.4 in Knox at 12z was 4.2 at 18z.

How does the NBM go up for the Philly-NJ-NYC region after every 12Z model was a whiff (other than the SREFs)?

2 weeks out or so, don't want the Bullseye on us

Icon is a hammer