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Looks like some good bursts in the ALB area.

Yeah, gefs is slower and stronger going into 7, but I don’t really pay attention to what happens after that (the purple part) - too far out to have any real skill. But the gefs hollmover shows forcing weakening over the MC and moving east quickly through the pac basin past the dateline over the next week, and then cycle back to 6-7-8 soon after.

From https://x.com/judah47/status/1992608265507946858 Seems very reasonable. Third week of December looks good.

If we can get the thermal boundary to be squashed far enough south we might at least be able to begin with some wintry precipitation out ahead of any overrunning system around 11/30 (Thanksgiving weekend). The ICON and now GFS have been hinted at this scenario. The CMC and ECM have a different evolution, but the EC-AI is somewhat supportive. This looks volatile in the modeling as there are strong waves upstream and downstream that will likely lead to major run-to-run changes. But I think there is a small hint of a pathway to something wintry before fantasy-range.

>> For comparison. >>

The ICON and GFS are coming in hot this morning for the end-of-week snow event. Both have potential for 6+" across Iowa and Illinois if the rates are heavy enough to counter the warm ground.

For future reference, based on MJO verification over the last 30 days, GEFS is really the one to watch when MJO is medium to high amplitude. And it’s not even competitive.

For future reference, based on MJO verification over the last 30 days, GEFS is really the one to watch when MJO is medium to high amplitude. And it’s not even competitive.

Surprisingly decent snow this morning with the clipper warm front. ASOS down to 1 mile steady -SN. METAR KMVL 231545Z AUTO 00000KT 1SM -SN BR BKN020 OVC036 M01/M03 A2991

Paul Roundy's experiential MJO forecast tool has this look by DEC 14th...just updated. https://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/roundy/waves/rmmcyc/indexmjo.htmlGree Very suppressed SER with big time -EPO & bridge block to Greenland.

27 this morning, all of the stubborn leaves dropped this morning.

https://x.com/judah47/status/1992608265507946858?t=ykLy8c-MkGuGLusD9eZevQ&s=19

Judging by the flip flopping some things never change with the models. Everyone take a breath, it’s not even Thanksgiving. We’re going to be fine. Dec looks volatile and then we have Jammin’ January and Fab Feb.

People post from different regions so different effects are expected. Plus the select group of posters who always/only look for warm will be looking and scouring social media for whatever they need to to mitigate any cold. But overall appears that in typical nina fashion, the already cold north will have colder anomalies and the already warm south warmer ones. In other words big temp gradients, at least at times.

Wrong! So WRONG. What’s being progged is nothing like last December.

It actually went below freezing in east Queens this morning instead of scraping just above it like we have had several times already.

Looks like 3-6" potential starting tomorrow night. Followed by a decent chill for late Nov.

It's been pretty much the same winter pattern for the last decade minus a few blips here and there.

How do you even know that ?

It feels that way. Same ole garbage pattern locked in for years. At least I got to experience an amazing winter stretch from 2000-2018

Really need to stave the expectations. The long range looks decent/temps around climatology. Which aren’t the greatest for snow, ( 12-4 12-5 really spoiled us back in the day). The way things are these days I call that a win, I love Christmas, and I absolutely hate one where I’m wearing a T-shirt and hopefully that’s not the case this year. It can be bone dry and cold and I’d be happier than a pig in shit.

It was the coldest of the season so far here this morning as well -- I got down to 26. I still had some leaves on a couple trees in my yard, but the hard freeze this morning knocked the rest of them off. I'll do the final leaf cleanup tomorrow.

All the ensembles bring down the cold after the first week. No clue what the panic is right now.

Got down to 30. It was super frosty morning!