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They gave me a perc, so if probably be more disappointed otherwise. Big AI run coming up

when was the last time the GFS nailed a storm like its doing now?

I do think parts of S DE-S NJ can still get into the ccb but the gfs solution is a joke imo. Entertaining, but a joke

You showed up just in time... there's a lot going on this winter across the entire forum.

Hey @TheClimateChanger saw your post on the other thread....suspect you likely didn't want to "find" the updated 2025 Chester County climate summary. It is on the website but let me share with you both the climate summary and the chart you were seeking. Some interesting chilly climate stats that helped highlight our coldest year in 11 years - enjoy!

Graf the galoshes on the way out tomorrow

To each his own but I never understand why everyone is so anxious to close out winter in February.

we’ve entered the new pattern. it won’t always be pretty, but there will be plenty of opportunity.

Oh I know just pointing out how rare it is…also noting it because assuming we don’t get a gfs solution it shows how difficult it would be to win from the coastal here we need the low tracking up the bay basically.

Cheering on clouds today and a little ZR/IP over snow tomorrow? What kind of mental illness leads to that thought process?

Are you implying that science isn’t at the forefront of our current heads of Government? Who woulda thunk it Euro should be running soon. Godspeed, all

What in the hell is going on? I'll admit: I've checked out. That storm in January and the prolonged cold was more than sufficient and I've had other things going on to grab my already taxed attention span. I haven't paid really any attention.

Late February/early March 2015 comes to mind. Although, things turned warmer as the spring went on. May 2015 was near record warm. NYC Feb 2015: 23.9 -12.0 Mar 2015: 38.1 -4.7 Apr 2015: 54.3 +0.6 May 2015: 68.5 +5.3 I won't be surprised if one of the spring months was near record warm.

gfs trolling hard

Yes, it’s a crap model, it takes a few cycles for it to crap put bad initialization data. The profession would be easier if the gfs didn’t go out beyond 3 days. Or even existed at all.

Anymore? Ever?

Not for me. I saw that run during a break in rehearsal and I was immediately like "Nahhhh not happenin'" so the Euro can't disappoint me much, lol

it's a relatively mature mid-latitude low. vertically stacking a low like that tightens the precip field for a variety of reasons when compared to what we usually see (a coastal surface low with a trailing 500mb low and trough) we usually don't see that occur at our latitude. it's something we'd be more attuned to if we lived in the northeast though.

I want to get that. Couldn’t care less about snow amount with this

Yeah the GFS buries VA, Eastern Tn., and Mid Atlantic. Some crazy totals in there.

Wait you have 40 and claim 20 below climo to date?

oink oink

This system is a good test. The ECMWF stood alone for a time. Now the GFS is doing so. If the ECMWF or something close to it verifies, that will again expose the GFS's deficiencies. Unfortunately, there does not appear to be any urgency to address the model's flaws.

How much longer before the air is deflated from the ballon?