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Well, well, well, the 0Z UKMET at hour 96 suddenly has a (TS or STS) form off the FL E coast as it does have somewhat of a warm core per 850/700/500 mb temps being warmer near the center than surrounding areas and it has mid-70s dewpoints surrounding the center. It forms just off of SC portion of the FL E coast and then moves mainly NNE to Wilmington, NC: NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 96 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 96 : 28.0N 79.6W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 0000UTC 03.11.2026 96 28.0N 79.6W 1007 44 1200UTC 03.11.2026 108 28.3N 78.9W 1004 43 0000UTC 04.11.2026 120 29.0N 78.3W 1003 36 1200UTC 04.11.2026 132 30.7N 79.2W 1001 33 0000UTC 05.11.2026 144 32.1N 78.9W 1001 31 1200UTC 05.11.2026 156 35.1N 77.8W 1001 35 0000UTC 06.11.2026 168 39.5N 76.3W 1000 32

I remember that storm well. It was 32° and I took out the lawn tractor to blow oak leaves off the lawn about 9:30 in the morning and flurries started about 10:00. By 11.00 there was a dusting and it snowed pretty good all afternoon. I went from Barkhamsted to Avon at 4:00 and the roads were only wet with a couple of inches of snow on the ground but the real deal kicked in about 7 o’clock when trees which still had plenty of leaves because of the very warm October started coming down while I was in Winsted with constant blue flashes from Transformers blowing. Power was going out everywhere. There was no way to get back to Barkhamsted and I had to drive down route 8 south to Waterbury and get on 84 E. to come back up 91 to get past Bradley. It looked like a tornado came through with blue flashes everywhere and I’ve never seen so many snapped telephone poles and downed wires before in any kind of storm and it wasn’t just in one area. It was everywhere. I had my old 4wd GMC and had to drive through a cornfield in Granby and finally up Mountain Road back to Hartland and Barkhamsted. There was 23/24 inches of snow by the end of the storm on top of the hill in Barkhamsted and not even a twig came down as the temperature had dropped down to 27° but at the bottom of the hill in Granby and Southwick Ma there was about 12 inches of cement like snow and it really looked like a tornado came through, the power was out for five days but in Wethersfield where my grandmother lived they were without power for over nine days.

This weather has been fantastic for so long now. Looks like we got over another week of it until we get into the 50's for highs finally. Also very curious how December is going to play out this year. I'm hearing some rumblings Dec might torch but honestly forecasting out over a month is a fools errand I feel. But things will probably get a bit fucky since this is a super el nino and normally you don't notice those effects as much until the winter months

I used to go back through the Sandy threads in the NYC forum. As it got closer, a lot of us were like, oh shit. This is actually gonna turn into New Jersey.

yeah i was gonna say 2014-2015 Royals are the only other one I can remember. Totally agree on the crowds- I mean there were more Brewers fans there.

WUSA 9 forecast

Speaking of a seasoned meteorologist posted this Dan Thomas for winter I hope west and east can get snow as well we will see https://www.wsmv.com/2026/10/30/major-snowstorm-chance-is-high-this-winter-middle-tennessee/ .

There's a huge subtropical jet already forming in the Pacific

A photo:

The Oct 2011 snow was a lot of white rain east of the city that stuck in spots when it came down heavier but what happened a year later was obviously beyond any compare here. The early November snow after Sandy would've been awe inspiring on its own since there was up to 8" even on the coast. That it happened a week after devastation was practically apocalyptic, and seeing the heavy snow piled on people's flooded out belongings and wreckage of homes. Some places started to get power again only for it to go off again for several more days, and of course those with no power/heat were in worse straits. For a week after Sandy my mother and I hung out near a stove for heat in a part of Long Beach that didn't flood, heating tap water we couldn't drink. We had to walk to City Hall every day for printed updates and listen to a radio for news. Hard to even describe how bad it was. And anyone with a working car had to wait on line for hours for gas.

It looks to be the earliest SSW on record. I know the models haven't seen it yet, in regards to cold air. It does take 2-4 weeks to propagate to troposphere, sometimes sooner. Trying to stay optimistic that we will have at least one chance this winter

Weekend system is certainly going to be juiced up. PWATs reaching records compared to climo for this time of year, so it's no wonder much of Arizona is already under a Flood Watch. San Juans in Colorado could get feet upon feet of snow

My front porch had a high of 77.7 today, low of 52.8. It's like early September

DT

Where is @CoastalWx in this discussion? He is oddly quiet! "Fake" radiational cooling cold repeated ends up making epic deep layer cold in the Arctic and builds very strong high pressure, and that spills down into the CONUS eventually. Very low 1000-500 thk and 925/850 and the sfc very cold as well.

Wtg Brewers!!

Watching Bryson play Sugarloaf in Maine. They keep trying to push the foliage being beautiful etc. but he’s at least a week past peak, maybe two. I’m not sure when it was shot but the drone shots make it look like stick season.

It turns fake as soon as it becomes inverted.

Todays GFS runs near the 15 day mark indicated some white flakes/slop in the region. Going to feel like winter even if the flakes do not materialize