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It is very odd.

A compacted 4" on flat roof of cars today since Saturday s storm.

It does feel that way. I’m probably gonna miss it, unless the bulk comes(if it comes at all )Sunday afternoon. Irony is, I missed PD2 as well cuz I was up north. This might work out the same way lol.

My brother lives in Northern Delaware so I always root for him. A foot would take us to around 40in for the winter. There is another bomb showing end of month.

Lol the Euro doesnt want to run or the AI Euro. May have a trick up its sleeve lol

A lot of that depends on the setup and how developed the storm is in advance. A fast moving NS wave diving down out of Canada and rounding the base is usually moisture starved before the turn and typically has a narrow stripe. Very hard to nail down even at 72 hours. This event is nothing like that. Precip will already be breaking out 4 days in advance and the main energy isn't embedded in fast flow. Precip will also cover a pretty large area. Its a classic setup for SE/MA winter wx. For those reasons we'll prob safely know the bulk of who's getting winter wx by 96 hrs with the edges and mix line location causing the most uncertainty. People solidy in the middle of the snow zone by 96hrs can feel pretty good about getting hit. Finer details like max stripes and total qpf in general will always wobble even at 48hrs. Subtle differences in track and strength can cause fairly large shifts in amounts. All this said, I expect good agreement with all models for the bulk of the snow zone by 0z Tuesday. Famous last words.... lol

I think it's going to do something that is about as specific as you can get but yeah some people are gonna be surprised.

Tempted to say you can lock this one in because I am traveling to New Orleans Saturday morning and coming back Monday. With my luck not only will we get a KU while I am gone, but we’ll be stranded at the airport trying to get home. Nervous for my dog too if it’s bad, even trusting the sitter…

AIFS late?

My God, that’s 2016’s music!

all the major models have a major storm for the 28th/29th

It did this last time there was a big storm lol

I mean with regard to modeling..not your ideas. The modeling was a shut out(except for the machines) right up till 0z Saturday morning…then boom. Imo that isn’t a heavy lift with performances like what we just saw. It’ll be interesting to see where it goes. Will’s post sums it up well.

I don't even look at the UK anymore.

I hope they aren't riding w/ the lowest verification score, right? I think the GFS is about to be badly wrong.

I'll be in Charlotte this weekend might be stuck there for days if some of the guidance is correct

It should have…

I’d rather it not run at all then shit on our heads.

With all the mayhem over this weekend, y'all just glossed over the Jan 28/29 CMC:

You think the mid-Atlantic is getting a HECS out of this? I might need to make plans yikes.

Classic Euro trick to only not run when we really need it to.

Hasn't even started running yet.

The Justin Tucker Storm: Where the entire forum gets a happy ending?

Don’t have the euro started either