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18z Euro did have a big bump north

HRV development now . That’s what Reggie/ RDPS showed. We’ll see

Use prunes liberally.

New information the SSWE has delayed until mid month. This development could help warm things up late month and in early March but be a delayed but not denied situation bringing cold back mid March.

light coating, maybe 1/8" :/ S-

I must be stealing your snow

That’s why I said south of rt 2: for a little while anyways. We need that stuff to develop quick as it moves east/east-southeast.

28/22 Dry air. I don’t think the valley is actually getting “shadowed” in a clipper.

At my age, how about a nice cr...

Ha, hoping for a good event here in SLK. Snowing nicely right now.

dry air not a problem here

27.5 and SN here at WXW2

I think we crush soon wish I kept the 2 to 4 I had earlier.. I think we easily see that now

snowing here

what are we hmmming over? zero or non-zero OMS for that, now bring that 100mi NW with some support and i'll consider it -but i don't think the overall pattern really supports that type of outcome anyway

The really cold classic winter pattern is probably over. However bowling balls and other vigorous systems can still bring snow for another month, especially I-40 north. Indeed the torch does not last forever and the 16-20 day trends back toward normal temps.

Love how dead this place is with a couple inches of snow compared to a sne thread. I have 2.5 inches in 3 hours, ain't nothin' to sneeze at

DZ and IP obs in the slot in the CT RV.

1988 does appear to be a good anti-analog. This my favorite La Nina, because it was independent, strong on its own, it wasn't part of a 2 or 3 year phase. I think you see La Nina effects better in analogs such as 88-89. We did have 2 El Nino's 2 years before, which inversely matches the RONI 2 La Nina's of the last 2 years. Jan-Feb 1988 was also the most subsurface cold water anomaly of the analogs. This matches this year being one of the warmest subsurface anomalies (whole subsurface area). Also to note, although the subsurface analog matches give off a strong signal (80% going in the direction later in the year), I think it's inflated a little high, because there are only 10 examples. More reasonable is probably 60% odds, based on the subsurface.

Valley

You should snow soon though

Yep. Dry air.

@CoastalWxI have 30dbz overhead with nothing falling. You called it earlier.

Agreed, the Sunday chance is still way too close to write off at this range. The 18z Euro was a close call & grazes southern PA with some light snow this run. It was not far away from something more.

agreed, but it was still better than many others we've suffered through.