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Recon are sampling the upper-level shortwave off PNW that will kick off our storm. IDK if dropsonde data is being ingested by this model run, but definitely 06z.

That's lame

Speaking of which somebody tweeted this yesterday...is this true? Lolol

The WRAL model is the only one to trust

NAM is the first of the 0z suite. I wouldn't just toss it yet.

Ignore that blip. No way it is that accurate with that little nook. Wake would be higher .

Nam 0z is a shut out for the southside! 18z GFS was showing a sharp cut off. We need it to roll up the coast to get that throw back action.

I trust you to make up a scenario before I trust NAM outside of 36 hours

One big issue is that as the NS wave responsible for all this has trended west so has the 50/50 and this is created a more suppressive flow over the top such that the more west track doesn't really matter...the wave is forced well south of us and cuts off then slides east before lifting because of the flow over the top being more suppressive, offsetting the better trajectory of the wave.

1.9 for wake. Not buying it.

The splotchy presentation in Ne GA and the upstate continues to scream downsloping unfortunately.

If the flipped what the 18Z Euro and NAM are showing it might be alarming

Wral will put out their first call totals tomorrow. Expect it to match whatever the EURO ENSEMBLE (their exclusive product) shows. .

It doesn’t have any other model support. Why wouldn’t you toss it?

Raleigh folks punching air if that happened after a week of foot+ runs on everything

Predicting that deform band is like trying to figure out where a thunderstorm is going to be in summer.

End of the FV3

I think New Bern might win .

The NAM is still great for central NC. More realistic totals for sure. .

A couple nice looking clippers possible the next week!

Nam run wasn’t super great but the end of the 3k was going absolutely nuclear over us with the deform band.

Hey @mgerb- curious if you have any feedback from NWS folks or any comments on my long post above outlining my rationale. TIA.

The 0z Farmer’s Almanac has a 200 mile shift west!

It does countless wonky things on this run. But hey who knows. Not us. .

Foot+ in ENC. Pretty much all guidance is a snowstorm in this area. Probably the highest confidence area.