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There’s a 4-8” zone west of a 2-5” zone for sure. Then another 4-8” zone on 95 with boom potential especially east.

Some Nemo similarities

1.9 after the clear, 8.9" total,

I'm tracking it. I was just answering that person's question. I was just in the office yesterday because I actually have to do work, so I didn't have time to post on the Blizzard thread. I have posted on there in previous days, like Monday, Tuesday, and Thursday. Nope, it's going the way I had predicted it. I did say there was a possibility of one big snowstorm during the final week of February, before the winter went away for good in the last days of February/first days of March. I always prefer 80 and sunny, like 3/29/2025. I realize it's just not going to happen all the time. Some days it's going to be hotter, and some days it's going to be colder. But some months have an obvious cold signal and you know are going to be cold heading into it, like this month or March 2015. But just be aware that things do eventually swing the other way. Some of our coldest winters, like 2010, 2011, and 2015, had torch months during the spring. March 2010, April 2010, May 2010, April 2011, May 2011, and May 2015 are all Top 10 warmest months. Do not be surprised if one of this spring's months turn out very warm.

some of these TV mets are really dropping the ball I think....

Eps snowier than I would have guessed beyond this weekend. Not crazy, but enough to suggest a decent chance or 2 over the next 2 weeks.

Tough tough forecast. Boom/bust potential is so much higher than normal. The January storm seemed really locked in by the end in comparison. Someone’s going to Jack with the IVT and maybe pull in double digits a short drive away from places with like 2-3”. Still like my 2-6” range but maybe worth inching that up for HoCo/Carroll and points east?

Yes please. Being in New Brunswick I can afford some NW ticks.

I think there’s gonna be some winners west of the bay. Certainly losers, probably out by me somewhere (but perhaps a big IVT winner). that is a nice improvement on the uk ens. Our HQ out in Neptune/Asbury NJ is going to get destroyed in this one…they have already have an above climo season leading in

2015 24 to 36 when the EURO and Nam were alone.

Finally got the UKIE and its ens MOGREPS fully on board:

Man hopefully things hold today, we are 24-30 hrs away from a biggy!

Bernie Rayno @AccuRayno · 28m I do not believe there will be any shifting east of the modeling.The storm track is LOCKED IN.The only remaining question is how quickly the upper low strengthens. This impacts the DCA to PHL to eastern MD zone. Sending maps to explain. Bernie Rayno @AccuRayno · 42m X live this later this AM. MY THOUGHTS.3-6 DCA, BWI into eastern PA & NW NJ.6-12 from PHL-central NJ.12" in NYC. 12-18 along the Jersey shore into central Long Island. 1-2 feet from eastern LI to Boston including the Cape Cop. Around a foot in PVD, 6-12 HFD. 6-12 eastern MD/DE

My latest thoughts: MMU: 6-10 NYC: 10-14 Central/Eastern LI: 12-20 (locally 2ft) enjoy all!

If you look closer at the map above, the snowfall total range is from 1" to 36" at Toms River NJ. Meaning all or nothing. lol. I guess they are covering themselves to say they predicted every possible outcome. I think temperatures will be from 0 to 100 degrees tomorrow. oh, and the GFS is correct and has been all week.

Bernie Rayno @AccuRayno · 11m All modeling has the upper low placement in nearly the exact same location 1 am Mon. Every single model shown below. The question is strength. A old forecaster rule of thump is a a foot of snow for every closed contour.GFS is the only one that does that fast enuf for 6-12 in DCA.

Rent free

Funny thing is some of the totals might be less than Jan 26, but the snow will be denser and the winds will make this much more impactful.

I’m pretty sure they aren’t making decisions based on what this weenie is telling them.

I was noticing that just a few min ago looking at soundings. Deep DGZ on just about all guidance. Interior death band could produce some ratios. Won’t be Dec 2020 style but even in storms like Feb 2013, there were at least decent ratios despite the wind. Closer to the coast it’s probably just just too windy.

Just not Tblizz

You would think, but apparently not, with few exceptions. Fwiw, Ukie ensembles, which is the best they ever looked.

Yeah I don’t see Jan 2022 here. This will send a death band way NW even if it doesn’t last as long.

Wind will be a limiting factor on ratios. Otherwise, the soundings looks really good. Pretty deep dgz right in the 700-500 range.

This may have Feb 2013 type tree damage on south shore. Heavy wet snow as it pounds and then temp falls with those winds. Gfs Bufkit is insane. Has 75-80krs at top of boundary layer.